- The Red Sox are -145 favorites vs the Blue Jays
- Red Sox vs Blue Jays Over / Under today: 7.5 Runs
- Red Sox / Blue Jays TV Channel: RSN1 | NESN | MLBN
The Boston Red Sox (-130) visit Rogers Centre to take on the Toronto Blue Jays (+110) on Tuesday, April 29, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 7:07pm EDT in Toronto, ON.
This season, the Red Sox are 16-14 against the spread (ATS), while the Blue Jays are 17-11 ATS.
Red Sox vs Blue Jays Starting Pitchers Today:
- Red Sox starting pitcher: Garrett Crochet 2-2, 1.95 ERA
- Blue Jays starting pitcher: Bowden Francis 2-3, 3.67 ERA
Red Sox vs. Blue Jays Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Red Sox | -1.5 +135 | O 7.5 +100 | -130 |
| Blue Jays | +1.5 -160 | U 7.5 -120 | +110 |
Red Sox vs Blue Jays Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Red Sox will win Tuesday‘s MLB game with 58.9% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Red Sox Player Prop Bets Today:
- Carlos Narvaez has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 7 games (+15.50 Units / 221% ROI)
- Rafael Devers has hit the Hits Under in 15 of his last 25 away games (+12.30 Units / 46% ROI)
- Jarren Duran has hit the Runs Under in 19 of his last 25 away games (+11.35 Units / 37% ROI)
- Alex Bregman has hit the RBIs Under in 20 of his last 25 away games (+9.75 Units / 19% ROI)
- Rafael Devers has hit the Total Bases Under in 17 of his last 25 away games (+9.00 Units / 27% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Blue Jays players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Blue Jays Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Bowden Francis has hit the Earned Runs Under in 6 of his last 7 games at home (+5.00 Units / 55% ROI)
- Bowden Francis has hit the Walks Allowed Under in 7 of his last 10 games (+3.35 Units / 26% ROI)
- Bowden Francis has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 5 of his last 6 games at home (+3.30 Units / 42% ROI)
- Bowden Francis has hit the Hits Allowed Under in 5 of his last 7 games at home (+2.50 Units / 28% ROI)
- Bowden Francis has hit the Strikeouts Over in 3 of his last 4 games (+2.15 Units / 44% ROI)
Red Sox Best Bets Today:
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 15 of their last 25 games (+7.80 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 14 of their last 20 games (+7.00 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 9 of their last 12 games (+5.90 Units / 40% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 13 of their last 21 games (+4.75 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 9 of their last 13 games (+4.60 Units / 32% ROI)
Blue Jays Best Bets Today:
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Under in 18 of their last 25 games (+10.27 Units / 37% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Team Total Under in 9 of their last 10 games (+8.10 Units / 67% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 14 of their last 21 games (+7.30 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 8 of their last 10 games at home (+5.35 Units / 42% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 7 of their last 10 games at home (+5.10 Units / 42% ROI)
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Red Sox are 15-15 against the Run Line (+0.8 Units / 2.13% ROI).
- 16-14 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.95 Units / -8.71% ROI
- 14-15 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.25 Units / -6.83% ROI
- 15-14 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.2 Units / -0.61% ROI
Blue Jays Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Blue Jays are 17-11 against the Run Line (+3.5 Units / 8.53% ROI).
- 13-15 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.25 Units / -4% ROI
- 10-18 when betting on the total runs Over for -9.25 Units / -30.56% ROI
- 18-10 when betting on the total runs Under for +7.02 Units / 22.37% ROI
Blue Jays vs Red Sox Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Rafael Devers (BOS) | 0.5 +280 | 0.5 -350 |
| Alex Bregman (BOS) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -500 |
| Jarren Duran (BOS) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -550 |
| Anthony Santander (TOR) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
| Triston Casas (BOS) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
Blue Jays vs Red Sox Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Alex Bregman (BOS) | 0.5 -220 | 0.5 +165 |
| Rafael Devers (BOS) | 0.5 -220 | 0.5 +165 |
| Wilyer Abreu (BOS) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Alejandro Kirk (TOR) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +155 |
Blue Jays vs Red Sox RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Wilyer Abreu (BOS) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -175 |
| Rafael Devers (BOS) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Alex Bregman (BOS) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Anthony Santander (TOR) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -220 |
| Jarren Duran (BOS) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -235 |
Blue Jays vs Red Sox Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Garrett Crochet (BOS) | 6.5 +120 | 6.5 -155 |
| Bowden Francis (TOR) | 5.5 +125 | 5.5 -165 |
Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Garrett Crochet has allowed a slugging percentage of just .220 (29 Total Bases / 132 ABs) this season — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .377 — 97th Percentile.
Garrett Crochet has a strikeout rate of 40% (62 SO in 154 PAs) with runners in scoring position since last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 75 total IP; League Avg: 22% — 100th Percentile.
Garrett Crochet had a strikeout rate of 41% (50/123) with runners in scoring position in the 2024 season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 22% — 100th Percentile.
Garrett Crochet had a strikeout rate of 35% (209/595) in the 2024 season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 22% — 100th Percentile.
Blue Jays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of just 10% (4/41) against Bowden Francis on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 4th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — fourth Percentile.
Bowden Francis has not walked any of the 27 batters that they have faced against right-handed batters in his last two starts — tied for best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 7% — 100th Percentile.
Bowden Francis has averaged 73.7 MPH on curveballs since the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 140 total IP; League Avg: 79.5 — fourth Percentile.
Bowden Francis allowed a BABIP of .212 in the 2024 season — tied for best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .289 — 100th Percentile.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Blue Jays
The Red Sox are 9-0 (1.000) when they’ve had 10 or more hits this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .741.
The Red Sox are just 40-151 (.209) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .273.
The Red Sox are just 14-140 (.091) when trailing entering the 7th inning since the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .139.
The Red Sox were just 5-58 (.079) when trailing entering the 7th inning in the 2024 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .143.
Blue Jays Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Blue Jays are 28-15 (.651) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .499.
The Blue Jays were just 6-73 (.076) when trailing entering the 7th inning in the 2024 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .143.
The Blue Jays are just 27-50 (.351) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams since last season They play the Red Sox (23rd best runs allowed) today.
The Blue Jays were just 12-34 (.261) when their opponents score in the first inning in the 2024 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .359.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
Red Sox hitters struck out 506 times in 1,816 PA’s (28%) against LHP in the 2024 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Red Sox hitters have struck out in 27% of it’s PA’s against LHP since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Red Sox batted .300 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game in 2023 — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .267.
Red Sox hitters have put just 32% of their swings in play against LHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Blue Jays Hitting Stats & Trends
The Blue Jays are batting just .189 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .340.
Blue Jays hitters are slugging just .303 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .580.
Blue Jays hitters are slugging just .321 against RHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .395.
Blue Jays hitters have an OPS of just .614 (809 PA’s) against RHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .711.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
Red Sox pitchers have walked 7% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents had a miss rate of just 24% against Red Sox pitchers in the 2024 season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 24% against Red Sox pitchers since last season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 44% against Red Sox pitchers since the 2023 season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Blue Jays Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .045 against Blue Jays pitchers with the shift this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .234.
Blue Jays pitchers had allowed a run just 24% of the time after an opposing score in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 32%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Blue Jays pitchers since the 2023 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Blue Jays pitchers have allowed a run just 19% of the time after an opposing score this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 31%.
More MLB Reading:
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