- The Braves are -175 favorites vs the Red Sox
- Red Sox vs Braves Over / Under today: 9 Runs
- Red Sox / Braves TV Channel: BSSO | NESN
The Boston Red Sox (+155) visit Truist Park to take on the Atlanta Braves (-190) on Tuesday, May 7, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 7:20pm EDT in Atlanta, GA.
This season, the Red Sox are 19-16 against the spread (ATS), while the Braves are 15-17 ATS.
Red Sox vs Braves Starting Pitchers Today:
- Red Sox starting pitcher: Kutter Crawford 2-1, 1.56 ERA
- Braves starting pitcher: Reynaldo Lopez 2-1, 1.52 ERA
Red Sox vs. Braves Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Red Sox | +1.5 -125 | O 8.5 +100 | +155 |
| Braves | -1.5 +105 | U 8.5 -120 | -190 |
Red Sox vs Braves Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Braves will win Tuesday‘s MLB game with 57.0% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Red Sox Player Prop Bets Today:
- Ceddanne Rafaela has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 15 games (+12.50 Units / 83% ROI)
- Ceddanne Rafaela has hit the Total Bases Under in 19 of his last 29 games (+10.40 Units / 29% ROI)
- Jarren Duran has hit the Hits Under in 17 of his last 22 games (+9.85 Units / 23% ROI)
- Jarren Duran has hit the Singles Under in 16 of his last 23 games (+9.65 Units / 40% ROI)
- Garrett Cooper has hit the Runs Under in his last 8 games (+8.00 Units / 48% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Braves Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Matt Olson has hit the Total Bases Under in 17 of his last 18 games (+16.40 Units / 63% ROI)
- Michael Harris II has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 15 games at home (+13.20 Units / 46% ROI)
- Ronald Acuna Jr. has hit the RBIs Under in his last 13 games at home (+13.00 Units / 51% ROI)
- Matt Olson has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 15 of his last 18 games (+12.50 Units / 64% ROI)
- Travis d’Arnaud has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 6 games at home (+12.20 Units / 203% ROI)
Red Sox Best Bets Today:
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 15 of their last 19 games (+10.60 Units / 50% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 37 of their last 66 away games (+7.03 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 34 of their last 61 away games (+5.05 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 5 of their last 7 away games (+2.95 Units / 38% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 3 of their last 6 away games (+1.53 Units / 24% ROI)
Braves Best Bets Today:
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Over in 42 of their last 66 games (+15.35 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Team Total Over in 36 of their last 55 games at home (+13.64 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the Run Line in 33 of their last 55 games at home (+9.25 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 31 of their last 50 games at home (+5.50 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 30 of their last 50 games at home (+4.61 Units / 5% ROI)
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Red Sox are 19-16 against the Run Line (-0.6 Units / -1.19% ROI).
- 19-16 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.1 Units / 7.67% ROI
- 14-19 when betting on the total runs Over for -6.6 Units / -17.28% ROI
- 19-14 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.55 Units / 9.14% ROI
Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Braves are 15-17 against the Run Line (-2.1 Units / -5.64% ROI).
- 20-12 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.05 Units / 1.81% ROI
- 12-18 when betting on the total runs Over for -7.5 Units / -21.43% ROI
- 18-12 when betting on the total runs Under for +4.9 Units / 13.8% ROI
Braves vs Red Sox Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Marcell Ozuna (ATL) | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -350 |
| Matt Olson (ATL) | 0.5 +275 | 0.5 -350 |
| Rafael Devers (BOS) | 0.5 +290 | 0.5 -375 |
| Ronald Acuna (ATL) | 0.5 +325 | 0.5 -450 |
| Austin Riley (ATL) | 0.5 +325 | 0.5 -400 |
Braves vs Red Sox Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Austin Riley (ATL) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Michael Harris (ATL) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Vaughn Grissom (BOS) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Marcell Ozuna (ATL) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Tyler O'Neill (BOS) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
Braves vs Red Sox RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Rafael Devers (BOS) | 0.5 +115 | 0.5 -150 |
| Matt Olson (ATL) | 0.5 +120 | 0.5 -160 |
| Marcell Ozuna (ATL) | 0.5 +120 | 0.5 -155 |
| Austin Riley (ATL) | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -165 |
| Tyler O'Neill (BOS) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
Braves vs Red Sox Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kutter Crawford (BOS) | 4.5 -160 | 4.5 +120 |
| Reynaldo Lopez (ATL) | 5.5 -135 | 5.5 +100 |
Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Kutter Crawford has allowed a slugging percentage of just .167 (13 Total Bases / 78 ABs) vs left-handed batters this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .391 — 98th Percentile.
Kutter Crawford has allowed a slugging percentage of just .262 (39 Total Bases / 149 ABs) this season — 2nd best among in MLB; League Avg: .384 — 97th Percentile.
Opponents have a Hard-Hit Rate of just 27% (24/88) against Kutter Crawford on pitches in the strike zone this season — best among in MLB; League Avg: 44% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 32% (12/37) against Kutter Crawford in two-strike counts this season — 3rd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 45% — third Percentile.
Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Reynaldo Lopez has walked 32 of 186 left-handed batters (17%) since last season — tied for 3rd highest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 10% — fourth Percentile.
Reynaldo Lopez has a strikeout rate of 50% (9 SO in 18 PAs) when going through the lineup the first time in a game over the last 14 days — best in NL over the last two weeks; League Avg: 24% — 100th Percentile.
Reynaldo Lopez has walked 17 of 358 right-handed batters (5%) since the 2022 season — tied for 9th best among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 8% — 94th Percentile.
Reynaldo Lopez has allowed an OBP of just .253 (356 PA’s) against right-handed batters since the 2022 season — tied for 4th best among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: .300 — 96th Percentile.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Braves
The Red Sox are just 3-153 (.019) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2022 season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .050.
The Red Sox are just 1-87 (.011) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .052.
The Red Sox are 77-7 (.917) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .856.
The Red Sox are just 41-53 (.436) after a home loss since the 2022 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .517.
Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Braves are 5-2 (.714) after a win as underdogs since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .426.
The Braves are 29-35 (.453) when allowing 10 or more hits since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .264.
The Braves are 34-53 (.391) when allowing 5 or more runs since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .213.
The Braves are 49-46 (.516) when allowing 2 or more home runs since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .302.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
The Red Sox are batting .282 with two outs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .226.
Red Sox hitters have 98 strikeouts in 336 PA’s (29%) against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Red Sox hitters have an OBP of .350 (336 PA’s) against LHP this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .315.
Red Sox hitters have drawn 41 walks in 336 PA’s (12%) against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Braves Hitting Stats & Trends
Braves hitters are slugging .590 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .449.
Braves hitters have an OPS of .821 (5,711 PA’s) against RHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .725.
Braves hitters are slugging .464 against RHP since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .401.
The Braves are batting .375 on the first pitch of at-bats since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .340.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
Red Sox pitchers have walked 16 of 315 batters (5%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Red Sox pitchers have an ERA of 1.94 (167.1 IP) on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.00.
Red Sox pitchers have walked 87 of 1,293 batters (7%) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Red Sox pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 87.5 MPH (856 batted balls) this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 88.8.
Braves Pitching Stats & Trends
Braves pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 86.6 MPH (747 batted balls) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 88.8.
The Braves pitchers allowed their opponents to score first in just 27% of their games on the road in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
The Braves pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 86.6 MPH this season (747 balls in play) — best in MLB; League Avg: 88.8
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Braves pitchers since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Braves vs. Red Sox Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Evan White (Atlanta Braves): Hip, Day-To-Day
- Angel Perdomo (Atlanta Braves): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Ian Anderson (Atlanta Braves): Elbow, Out
- Sean Murphy (Atlanta Braves): Oblique, 10-Day IL
- Wyatt Mills (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Vaughn Grissom (Boston Red Sox): Hamstring, 10-Day IL
- Michael Fulmer (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Zack Kelly (Boston Red Sox): Oblique, Day-To-Day
- Bryan Mata (Boston Red Sox): Hamstring, 15-Day IL
- Chris Murphy (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Kenley Jansen (Boston Red Sox): Back, Day-To-Day
- Brandon Walter (Boston Red Sox): Shoulder, 7-Day IL
- Lucas Giolito (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Rob Refsnyder (Boston Red Sox): Toe, 10-Day IL
- Yu Chang (Boston Red Sox): Oblique, Out
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