- The Red Sox are -120 favorites vs the Cardinals
- Red Sox vs Cardinals Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Red Sox / Cardinals TV Channel: Roku
The Boston Red Sox (-120) visit Busch Stadium to take on the St. Louis Cardinals (+100) on Sunday, May 19, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 1:05pm EDT in St. Louis, MO.
This season, the Red Sox are 22-24 against the spread (ATS), while the Cardinals are 22-23 ATS.
Red Sox vs Cardinals Starting Pitchers Today:
- Red Sox starting pitcher: Nick Pivetta 1-2, 3.49 ERA
- Cardinals starting pitcher: Matthew Liberatore 1-1, 4.57 ERA
Red Sox vs. Cardinals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Red Sox | -1.5 +140 | O 8.5 -120 | -120 |
| Cardinals | +1.5 -165 | U 8.5 +100 | +100 |
Red Sox vs Cardinals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Red Sox will win Sunday‘s MLB game with 51.7% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Red Sox Player Prop Bets Today:
- Rafael Devers has hit the Home Runs Over in his last 4 games (+14.25 Units / 356% ROI)
- Jarren Duran has hit the Singles Under in 22 of his last 34 games (+10.55 Units / 30% ROI)
- Rafael Devers has hit the Hits Over in 17 of his last 22 games (+10.20 Units / 22% ROI)
- Tyler O’Neill has hit the RBIs Under in 13 of his last 15 games (+9.30 Units / 30% ROI)
- Dominic Smith has hit the Runs Under in 11 of his last 12 games (+8.90 Units / 37% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cardinals players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Cardinals Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Alec Burleson has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 16 games (+25.80 Units / 161% ROI)
- Nolan Arenado has hit the Hits Over in 32 of his last 42 games (+12.35 Units / 14% ROI)
- Nolan Arenado has hit the Singles Over in 27 of his last 42 games (+11.90 Units / 26% ROI)
- Lars Nootbaar has hit the Runs Under in 18 of his last 23 games (+10.90 Units / 29% ROI)
- Paul Goldschmidt has hit the Total Bases Under in 27 of his last 42 games (+9.95 Units / 17% ROI)
Red Sox Best Bets Today:
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 22 of their last 33 games (+11.05 Units / 30% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 24 of their last 46 games (+6.70 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 11 of their last 15 games (+6.20 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 6 of their last 7 games (+5.15 Units / 55% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 14 of their last 23 away games (+4.70 Units / 17% ROI)
Cardinals Best Bets Today:
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Game Total Over in 9 of their last 10 games (+7.80 Units / 69% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Team Total Under in 23 of their last 37 games (+7.15 Units / 16% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 19 of their last 31 games (+5.70 Units / 15% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Moneyline in 5 of their last 6 games (+4.10 Units / 59% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have covered the Run Line in 4 of their last 6 games (+2.40 Units / 30% ROI)
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Red Sox are 20-26 against the Run Line (-10.65 Units / -16.93% ROI).
- 22-24 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.95 Units / -7.23% ROI
- 17-27 when betting on the total runs Over for -12.15 Units / -24.25% ROI
- 27-17 when betting on the total runs Under for +8.3 Units / 16.23% ROI
Cardinals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Cardinals are 22-23 against the Run Line (-3.15 Units / -5.29% ROI).
- 20-25 when betting on the Moneyline for -8.25 Units / -14.85% ROI
- 20-23 when betting on the total runs Over for -5.6 Units / -11.21% ROI
- 23-20 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.3 Units / 2.65% ROI
Cardinals vs Red Sox Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Tyler O'Neill (BOS) | 0.5 +340 | 0.5 -450 |
| Rafael Devers (BOS) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -550 |
| Matt Carpenter (STL) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Paul Goldschmidt (STL) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| Nolan Arenado (STL) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
Cardinals vs Red Sox Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Rafael Devers (BOS) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Jarren Duran (BOS) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Alec Burleson (STL) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Nolan Arenado (STL) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Tyler O'Neill (BOS) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
Cardinals vs Red Sox RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Rafael Devers (BOS) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -190 |
| Tyler O'Neill (BOS) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Nolan Arenado (STL) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Paul Goldschmidt (STL) | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
| Connor Wong (BOS) | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
Cardinals vs Red Sox Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nick Pivetta (BOS) | 5.5 -125 | 5.5 -105 |
| Matthew Liberatore (STL) | 3.5 +110 | 3.5 -145 |
Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Nick Pivetta has allowed an OBP of just .175 (405 PA’s) with two-strikes since last season — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 81 total IP; League Avg: .247 — 98th Percentile.
Nick Pivetta has a strikeout rate of 40% (34 SO in 85 PAs) in late innings since last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 81 total IP; League Avg: 22% — 100th Percentile.
Nick Pivetta has struck out 32% (87/274) of left-handed batters he faced since last season — 5th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 81 total IP; League Avg: 22% — 95th Percentile.
Nick Pivetta has a strike rate of 75% (61/81) over the past seven days (1 games) — highest in AL over the last week; League Avg: 65% — 100th Percentile.
Cardinals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Matthew Liberatore has allowed a .529 SLG vs right-handed batters (seventh worst)– seventh Percentile and just .194 vs left-handed batters this season (14th best among qualified RPs)– 88th Percentile.
Matthew Liberatore has allowed an OPS of just .033 (30 PA’s) on non-fastballs this season — best among in MLB; League Avg: .591 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .217 (10-for-46) against Matthew Liberatore with two-strikes this season — tied for 14th highest among among 107 qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: .160 — 14th Percentile.
The last hit on a Matthew Liberatore breaking pitch was September 22nd, 2023. Hitters are 0 for their last 30 in ABs ending on his breaking pitches. — Clay Holmes has the longest active streak at 42.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Cardinals
The Red Sox are just 22-34 (.393) after a home loss since the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .511.
The Red Sox are just 3-160 (.018) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2022 season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .050.
The Red Sox are just 16-148 (.098) when trailing entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .133.
The Red Sox are just 16-23 (.410) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2022 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Cardinals Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Cardinals are just 17-28 (.378) after a win as favorites since the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .576.
The Cardinals are 28-12 (.700) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Cardinals are just 9-88 (.093) when trailing entering the 7th inning since the 2023 season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .143.
The Cardinals are just 50-53 (.485) after a win as favorites since the 2022 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .588.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
The Red Sox are batting .271 with two outs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .230.
Red Sox hitters have 136 strikeouts in 460 PA’s (30%) against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Red Sox hitters have put just 31% of their swings in play against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Red Sox hitters have 40 strikeouts in 134 PA’s (30%) against LHP over the last 14 days — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Cardinals Hitting Stats & Trends
The Cardinals are batting just .203 against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .244.
The Cardinals are batting just .235 against LHP since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .252.
The Cardinals have not scored first in any of their games against division opponents this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Cardinals hitters have an OPS of just .598 (484 PA’s) against LHP this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .698.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
Red Sox pitchers have an ERA of 3.06 (412.1 IP) this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 3.95.
The average home run distance against the Red Sox pitchers this season is 387.8 feet — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 395.7
Red Sox pitchers have walked 121 of 1,707 batters (7%) this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Red Sox pitchers have won only 17% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home this season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Cardinals Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 47% against Cardinals pitchers since the 2022 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Cardinals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Cardinals pitchers since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Cardinals pitchers have walked 116 of 1,829 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Cardinals vs. Red Sox Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Dylan Carlson (St. Louis Cardinals): Shoulder, 10-Day IL
- Keynan Middleton (St. Louis Cardinals): Forearm, 15-Day IL
- Lars Nootbaar (St. Louis Cardinals): Ribs, 10-Day IL
- Drew Rom (St. Louis Cardinals): Biceps, 15-Day IL
- Sonny Gray (St. Louis Cardinals): Hamstring, 15-Day IL
- Riley O’Brien (St. Louis Cardinals): Forearm, 15-Day IL
- Tommy Edman (St. Louis Cardinals): Wrist, 10-Day IL
- Packy Naughton (St. Louis Cardinals): Elbow, Out
- Wyatt Mills (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Vaughn Grissom (Boston Red Sox): Hamstring, 10-Day IL
- Michael Fulmer (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Zack Kelly (Boston Red Sox): Oblique, Day-To-Day
- Bryan Mata (Boston Red Sox): Hamstring, 15-Day IL
- Chris Murphy (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Kenley Jansen (Boston Red Sox): Back, Day-To-Day
- Brandon Walter (Boston Red Sox): Shoulder, 7-Day IL
- Lucas Giolito (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Rob Refsnyder (Boston Red Sox): Toe, 10-Day IL
- Yu Chang (Boston Red Sox): Oblique, Out
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