- The Red Sox are -115 favorites vs the Guardians
- Red Sox vs Guardians Over / Under today: 8 Runs
- Red Sox / Guardians TV Channel: GDTV | NESN
The Boston Red Sox (-115) visit Progressive Field to take on the Cleveland Guardians (-105) on Saturday, April 26, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 6:10pm EDT in Cleveland, OH, OH.
This season, the Red Sox are 14-13 against the spread (ATS), while the Guardians are 13-11 ATS.
Red Sox vs Guardians Starting Pitchers Today:
- Red Sox starting pitcher: Tanner Houck 0-2, 7.67 ERA
- Guardians starting pitcher: Ben Lively 1-2, 3.91 ERA
Red Sox vs. Guardians Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Red Sox | -1.5 +150 | O 7.5 -102 | -115 |
| Guardians | +1.5 -185 | U 7.5 -118 | -105 |
Red Sox vs Guardians Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Red Sox will win Saturday‘s MLB game with 51.5% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Red Sox Player Prop Bets Today:
- Carlos Narvaez has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 5 games (+17.50 Units / 350% ROI)
- Rafael Devers has hit the Hits Under in 17 of his last 25 away games (+17.40 Units / 66% ROI)
- Rafael Devers has hit the Total Bases Under in 20 of his last 25 away games (+16.15 Units / 49% ROI)
- Rafael Devers has hit the Runs Under in 21 of his last 25 away games (+14.55 Units / 40% ROI)
- Rafael Devers has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 20 of his last 25 away games (+13.95 Units / 47% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Guardians Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Kyle Manzardo has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 10 games (+17.00 Units / 170% ROI)
- Nolan Jones has hit the Runs Under in 18 of his last 20 games (+14.55 Units / 40% ROI)
- Steven Kwan has hit the Singles Over in 16 of his last 20 games (+10.25 Units / 35% ROI)
- Nolan Jones has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 12 of his last 15 games (+8.10 Units / 38% ROI)
- Steven Kwan has hit the Hits Over in his last 7 games at home (+8.00 Units / 53% ROI)
Red Sox Best Bets Today:
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 13 of their last 17 games (+8.00 Units / 36% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 13 of their last 22 games (+5.80 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 7 of their last 9 games (+4.55 Units / 39% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 5 of their last 6 away games (+4.00 Units / 45% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 15 of their last 27 games (+2.95 Units / 10% ROI)
Guardians Best Bets Today:
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 11 of their last 15 games (+7.95 Units / 42% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 15 of their last 24 games (+5.35 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 9 of their last 14 games (+4.50 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 9 of their last 13 games (+4.30 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Team Total Under in 13 of their last 21 games (+4.30 Units / 17% ROI)
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Red Sox are 13-14 against the Run Line (-1.1 Units / -3.18% ROI).
- 14-13 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.85 Units / -11.59% ROI
- 11-15 when betting on the total runs Over for -5.25 Units / -17.8% ROI
- 15-11 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.95 Units / 9.87% ROI
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Guardians are 13-11 against the Run Line (+0.1 Units / 0.29% ROI).
- 14-10 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.8 Units / 16.55% ROI
- 11-11 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.7 Units / -2.69% ROI
- 11-11 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.05 Units / -3.92% ROI
Guardians vs Red Sox Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Wilyer Abreu (BOS) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Rafael Devers (BOS) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Alex Bregman (BOS) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -750 |
| Trevor Story (BOS) | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -900 |
| Kyle Manzardo (CLE) | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -900 |
Guardians vs Red Sox Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Bregman (BOS) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Nolan Jones (CLE) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Trevor Story (BOS) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Rafael Devers (BOS) | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
| Kyle Manzardo (CLE) | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +135 |
Guardians vs Red Sox RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -200 |
| Kyle Manzardo (CLE) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Alex Bregman (BOS) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -200 |
| Rafael Devers (BOS) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Wilyer Abreu (BOS) | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
Guardians vs Red Sox Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Ben Lively (CLE) | 4.5 -110 | 4.5 -115 |
| Tanner Houck (BOS) | 4.5 -110 | 4.5 -118 |
Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Walker Buehler has located his sliders away 85% of the time (59/69) this season — highest among among AL Starters; League Avg: 54% — 100th Percentile.
Tanner Houck has allowed a .520 SLG this season — tied for sixth worst among qualified SPs– sixth Percentile. He allowed a SLG of just .320 last season — fourth best among qualified SPs– 94th Percentile.
Walker Buehler has walked 28% of batters when going through the lineup the second time in a game over the last 14 days — highest among AL Starters over the last two weeks; League Avg: 8% — second Percentile.
Opponents had a groundball rate of 56% (293/524) against Tanner Houck in the 2024 season — 5th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — 93rd Percentile.
Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Ben Lively has induced opposing hitters to ground into 5 double plays in 17 opportunities (29%) this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 10% — 98th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a miss rate of just 15% (16/104) against Ben Lively this season — 4th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — fifth Percentile.
14 of Ben Lively’s 44 breaking pitch strikeouts (32%) have been backdoor since last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 74 total IP; League Avg: 14% — 99th Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 3% (1/36) against Ben Lively with runners in scoring position this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 27% — first Percentile.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians
The Red Sox are 7-0 (1.000) when they’ve had 10 or more hits this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .747.
The Red Sox were just 5-58 (.079) when trailing entering the 7th inning in the 2024 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .143.
The Red Sox are just 14-139 (.092) when trailing entering the 7th inning since the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .140.
The Red Sox are 55-11 (.833) when they’ve had 10 or more hits since last season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .749.
Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Guardians were 82-0 (1.000) when leading entering the 9th inning in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .949.
The Guardians are 95-0 (1.000) when leading entering the 9th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .950.
The Guardians were just 3-61 (.047) when trailing entering the 8th inning in the 2024 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .100.
The Guardians were 77-2 (.975) when leading entering the 8th inning in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .899.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
Red Sox hitters struck out 506 times in 1,816 PA’s (28%) against LHP in the 2024 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Red Sox batted .182 on pitches out of the zone in 2023 — best in MLB; League Avg: .151.
The Red Sox batted .300 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game in 2023 — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .267.
Red Sox hitters are averaging 4.30 pitches per plate appearance against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.91.
Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends
Guardians hitters slugged just .367 against LHP in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .419.
Guardians hitters have put 41% of balls in play to the right side of the field since the 2023 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
The Guardians batted just .232 against LHP in the 2023 season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .254.
Guardians hitters struck out just 351 times in 1,910 PA’s (18%) against LHP in 2023 — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
Red Sox pitchers walked 98 of 1,456 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning in the 2024 season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Opponents had a miss rate of just 24% against Red Sox pitchers in the 2024 season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 47% against Red Sox pitchers this season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 24% against Red Sox pitchers since last season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents had a groundball batting average of just .207 against Guardians pitchers with runners on base in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .262.
The Guardians allowed 0.87 runs per game (140/161) in late innings in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 1.29.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .213 against Guardians pitchers with runners on base since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .263.
Opponents had a groundball batting average of just .223 against Guardians pitchers in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .249.
More MLB Reading:
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