- The Mariners are -190 favorites vs the Red Sox
- Red Sox vs Mariners Over / Under today: 7 Runs
- Red Sox / Mariners TV Channel: RTNW | NESN
The Boston Red Sox (+155) visit T-Mobile Park to take on the Seattle Mariners (-190) on Monday, June 16, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40pm EDT in Seattle, WA.
This season, the Red Sox are 37-36 against the spread (ATS), while the Mariners are 31-39 ATS.
Red Sox vs Mariners Starting Pitchers Today:
- Red Sox starting pitcher: Lucas Giolito 2-1, 5.50 ERA
- Mariners starting pitcher: Logan Gilbert 1-1, 2.38 ERA
Red Sox vs. Mariners Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Red Sox | +1.5 -145 | O 7 +100 | +155 |
| Mariners | -1.5 +120 | U 7 -120 | -190 |
Red Sox vs Mariners Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mariners will win Monday‘s MLB game with 61.0% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Red Sox Player Prop Bets Today:
- David Hamilton has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 7 away games (+13.00 Units / 186% ROI)
- Abraham Toro has hit the Total Bases Over in 14 of his last 20 games (+9.45 Units / 35% ROI)
- Carlos Narvaez has hit the Runs Over in 7 of his last 9 games (+8.25 Units / 92% ROI)
- Marcelo Mayer has hit the Singles Under in 9 of his last 10 games (+7.60 Units / 48% ROI)
- Abraham Toro has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 20 games (+7.50 Units / 19% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mariners players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mariners Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- J.P. Crawford has hit the Singles Over in 18 of his last 25 games at home (+13.55 Units / 52% ROI)
- Cal Raleigh has hit the Hits Over in 21 of his last 25 games at home (+13.30 Units / 30% ROI)
- Rowdy Tellez has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 9 games (+11.80 Units / 131% ROI)
- J.P. Crawford has hit the Total Bases Over in 19 of his last 25 games at home (+11.55 Units / 30% ROI)
- J.P. Crawford has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 17 of his last 25 games at home (+10.25 Units / 38% ROI)
Red Sox Best Bets Today:
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 17 of their last 23 away games (+13.05 Units / 50% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 7 of their last 8 games (+8.00 Units / 89% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 16 of their last 29 away games (+7.95 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 37 of their last 63 games (+7.40 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the Run Line in 20 of their last 34 away games (+7.15 Units / 17% ROI)
Mariners Best Bets Today:
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 18 of their last 27 games at home (+9.50 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 37 of their last 64 games (+7.40 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Team Total Under in 13 of their last 20 games (+5.25 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 16 of their last 30 games at home (+3.30 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have covered the Run Line in 14 of their last 27 games at home (+2.85 Units / 9% ROI)
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Red Sox are 36-36 against the Run Line (+1.35 Units / 1.5% ROI).
- 37-36 when betting on the Moneyline for -6.81 Units / -7.05% ROI
- 33-39 when betting on the total runs Over for -9.92 Units / -12.33% ROI
- 39-33 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.85 Units / 3.56% ROI
Mariners Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Mariners are 31-39 against the Run Line (-8.05 Units / -9.31% ROI).
- 36-34 when betting on the Moneyline for -7.1 Units / -7.62% ROI
- 36-30 when betting on the total runs Over for +3.05 Units / 3.98% ROI
- 30-36 when betting on the total runs Under for -9.82 Units / -12.67% ROI
Mariners vs Red Sox Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Cal Raleigh (SEA) | 0.5 +260 | 0.5 -325 |
| Randy Arozarena (SEA) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -700 |
| Dominic Canzone (SEA) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -750 |
| Julio Rodriguez (SEA) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
| Jorge Polanco (SEA) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
Mariners vs Red Sox Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jarren Duran (BOS) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| J.P. Crawford (SEA) | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
| Cal Raleigh (SEA) | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +130 |
| Jorge Polanco (SEA) | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +125 |
| Abraham Toro (BOS) | 0.5 -160 | 0.5 +125 |
Mariners vs Red Sox RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Cal Raleigh (SEA) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -175 |
| Jorge Polanco (SEA) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -235 |
| Julio Rodriguez (SEA) | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -235 |
| Randy Arozarena (SEA) | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
| Abraham Toro (BOS) | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
Mariners vs Red Sox Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Logan Gilbert (SEA) | 6.5 -110 | 6.5 -120 |
| Lucas Giolito (BOS) | 5.5 +120 | 5.5 -155 |
Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Lucas Giolito has allowed a slugging percentage of .707 (282 Total Bases / 399 ABs) in non-two strike counts since the 2023 season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 156 total IP; League Avg: .566 — first Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .394 (13-for-33) against Lucas Giolito’s elevated fastball this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 27 total IP; League Avg: .222 — second Percentile.
Lucas Giolito allowed a slugging percentage of .527 (89 Total Bases / 169 ABs) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning in 2023 — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .399 — sixth Percentile.
Lucas Giolito has walked 11% of batters when going through the lineup the second time in a game since the 2023 season — 6th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 156 total IP; League Avg: 7% — fourth Percentile.
Mariners Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Logan Gilbert has allowed an OPS of just .430 (351 PA’s) when going through the lineup the first time in a game since last season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .666 — 100th Percentile.
Right-handed batters are hitting just .172 (83-for-482) against Logan Gilbert since last season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .233 — 100th Percentile.
Logan Gilbert has allowed an OBP of just .233 (918 PA’s) since last season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .296 — 100th Percentile.
Logan Gilbert has allowed an OBP of just .179 (351 PA’s) when going through the lineup the first time in a game since last season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .288 — 100th Percentile.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Mariners
The Red Sox are just 16-153 (.095) when trailing entering the 7th inning since the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .140.
The Red Sox were just 5-58 (.079) when trailing entering the 7th inning in the 2024 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .143.
The Red Sox are just 4-170 (.023) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .049.
The Red Sox were just 18-69 (.207) when they scored 4 or fewer runs in the 2024 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .276.
Mariners Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Mariners are 4-28 (.125) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .045.
The Mariners were just 66-16 (.805) when leading entering the 7th inning in the 2024 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .856.
The Mariners are 179-4 (.978) when leading entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .950.
The Mariners are just 87-19 (.821) when leading entering the 7th inning since last season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .859.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
Red Sox hitters struck out 506 times in 1,816 PA’s (28%) against LHP in the 2024 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Red Sox batted .182 on pitches out of the zone in 2023 — best in MLB; League Avg: .151.
The Red Sox batted .300 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game in 2023 — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .267.
Red Sox hitters slugged .266 on pitches out of the zone in 2023 — best in MLB; League Avg: .211.
Mariners Hitting Stats & Trends
The Mariners batted just .207 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game in the 2024 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .263.
The Mariners are batting just .215 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .260.
The Mariners are batting just .228 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .263.
Mariners hitters put just 33% of their swings in play against LHP in 2023 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Red Sox pitchers this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Red Sox pitchers walked 98 of 1,456 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning in the 2024 season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Red Sox pitchers since the 2023 season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 24% against Red Sox pitchers since last season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Mariners Pitching Stats & Trends
Mariners pitchers walked 369 of 5,801 batters (6%) in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mariners pitchers walked 76 of 1,441 batters (5%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Mariners pitchers allowed an OBP of just .251 (1,441 PA’s) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .305.
Mariners pitchers have allowed an OBP of just .266 (2,074 PA’s) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .308.
More MLB Reading:
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