- The Mariners are -145 favorites vs the Red Sox
- Red Sox / Mariners TV Channel: RTNW | NESN | MLBN
The Boston Red Sox () visit T-Mobile Park to take on the Seattle Mariners () on Saturday, March 30, 2024. First pitch is for this MLB matchup is scheduled for 9:40pm EDT in Seattle, WA.
This season, the Red Sox are 1-1 against the spread (ATS), while the Mariners are 0-2 ATS.
Red Sox vs. Mariners Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Red Sox | O | ||
| Mariners | U |
Red Sox vs Mariners Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mariners will win Saturday‘s game with 53.4% confidence, based on game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Red Sox Player Prop Bets Today:
- Pablo Reyes has hit the Runs Under in his last 9 games (+9.00 Units / 48% ROI)
- Brayan Bello has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 15 of his last 21 games (+8.65 Units / 34% ROI)
- Pablo Reyes has hit the Total Bases Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+8.10 Units / 60% ROI)
- Enmanuel Valdez has hit the Singles Over in 7 of his last 9 away games (+7.55 Units / 84% ROI)
- Pablo Reyes has hit the Hits Under in 7 of his last 9 games (+7.50 Units / 83% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mariners players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mariners Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- George Kirby has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 22 of his last 30 games (+11.30 Units / 26% ROI)
- Tom Murphy has hit the Runs Over in 7 of his last 9 games at home (+9.50 Units / 106% ROI)
- Teoscar Hernandez has hit the Singles Over in 26 of his last 44 games (+8.25 Units / 18% ROI)
- Luis Castillo has hit the Earned Runs Over in 15 of his last 22 games (+8.15 Units / 30% ROI)
- George Kirby has hit the Strikeouts Over in 9 of his last 11 games at home (+7.10 Units / 57% ROI)
Red Sox Best Bets Today:
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 15 of their last 19 games (+10.60 Units / 50% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 37 of their last 66 away games (+7.03 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 34 of their last 61 away games (+5.05 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in their last 3 away games (+3.20 Units / 94% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 2 of their last 3 away games (+2.43 Units / 76% ROI)
Mariners Best Bets Today:
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 33 of their last 61 games (+11.71 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 33 of their last 52 games (+11.13 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Moneyline in 50 of their last 82 games (+8.75 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 46 of their last 78 games at home (+8.55 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Team Total Under in 9 of their last 11 games at home (+7.10 Units / 60% ROI)
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Red Sox are 2-0 against the Run Line (+2 Units / 61.54% ROI).
- 1-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.3 Units / 15% ROI
- 1-1 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.2 Units / -8.33% ROI
- 1-1 when betting on the total runs Under for +0 Units / 0% ROI
Mariners Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Mariners are 0-2 against the Run Line (-2 Units / -100% ROI).
- 1-1 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.5 Units / -16.95% ROI
- 1-1 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.2 Units / -8.33% ROI
- 1-1 when betting on the total runs Under for +0 Units / 0% ROI
Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Left-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 28% (72/256) against Kutter Crawford since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 129 total IP; League Avg: 43% — second Percentile.
Opponents batted just .130 (13-for-100) against Kutter Crawford’s elevated fastballs in the 2023 season — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .229 — 98th Percentile.
Kutter Crawford threw breaking pitches 55% of the time (232/419) when ahead in the count in the 2023 season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 25% — 98th Percentile.
Opponents batted just .164 (28-for-171) against Kutter Crawford’s fastball in the 2023 season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .270 — 100th Percentile.
Mariners Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Logan Gilbert threw his slider 44% of the time (229/525) when behind in the count in the 2023 season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 20% — 96th Percentile.
Logan Gilbert has thrown elevated pitches 41% of the time (623/1,536) on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 28% — 100th Percentile.
Logan Gilbert allowed an OBP of just .270 (767 PA’s) in the 2023 season — tied for 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .299 — 95th Percentile.
Logan Gilbert has thrown elevated pitches 34% of the time (1,056/3,064) against right-handed batters since last season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — 96th Percentile.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Mariners
The Red Sox were 64-3 (.955) when leading entering the 8th inning in 2023 — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .899.
The Red Sox were just 17-27 (.386) after a home loss in 2023 — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .508.
The Red Sox were just 1-74 (.013) when trailing entering the 9th inning in 2023 — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .051.
The Red Sox were just 35-49 (.417) after a loss in 2023 — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .486.
Mariners Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Mariners are 52-36 (.591) after a road win since the 2022 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .494.
The Mariners were just 8-12 (.400) when tied entering the 8th inning in 2023 — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Mariners were 25-18 (.581) after a road win in 2023 — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .494.
The Mariners were 65-13 (.833) when they scored 5 or more runs in 2023 — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .781.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
The Red Sox are batting .275 at home since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .249.
Red Sox hitters have an OBP of .332 (3,130 PA’s) against LHP since last season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .319.
The Red Sox batted .300 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game in the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .267.
Red Sox hitters slugged .266 on pitches out of the zone in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .211.
Mariners Hitting Stats & Trends
The Mariners are batting just .124 on pitches out of the zone since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .154.
The Mariners batted just .125 on pitches out of the zone in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .151.
Mariners hitters have 834 strikeouts in 3,406 PA’s (24%) against LHP since last season — tied for 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Mariners hitters put just 33% of their swings in play against LHP in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents had a swing rate of 49% against the Red Sox pitchers in the 2023 season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Red Sox pitchers have an ERA of 4.94 (1125.1 IP) against division opponents since last season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.14.
Opponents had a groundball batting average of .265 against Red Sox pitchers with the shift in the 2023 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: .240.
Opponents had a line drive rate of just 22% against Red Sox pitchers in the 2023 season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Mariners Pitching Stats & Trends
Mariners pitchers walked 97 of 1,455 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning in the 2023 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mariners pitchers have walked 192 of 2,909 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mariners pitchers walked 421 of 6,006 batters (7%) in the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Mariners pitchers had an ERA of 3.42 (744.0 IP) at home in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.23.
Mariners vs. Red Sox Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Mitch Haniger (Seattle Mariners): Back, Out
- Gregory Santos (Seattle Mariners): Lat, Out
- Eduard Bazardo (Seattle Mariners): Undisclosed, Out
- Matt Brash (Seattle Mariners): Arm, Out
- David Hamilton (Boston Red Sox): Thumb, Out
- Wyatt Mills (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, Out
- Vaughn Grissom (Boston Red Sox): Hamstring, Out
- Michael Fulmer (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, Out
- Dinelson Lamet (Boston Red Sox): Personal, Day-To-Day
- Connor Wong (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, Day-To-Day
- Jarren Duran (Boston Red Sox): Toe, Out
- Kenley Jansen (Boston Red Sox): Lat, Out
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