Red Sox vs Orioles Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Feb 24

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(AP Photo/Nick Wass)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Feb 24, 2024, 10:37 AM
  • Red Sox / Orioles TV Channel: NESN | MASN | MLBN

The Boston Red Sox (+120) visit Ed Smith Stadium to take on the Baltimore Orioles (-155) on Saturday, February 24, 2024. First pitch is for this Spring Training game is scheduled for 1:05pm EST in Sarasota, FL.

Last season, the Red Sox were 78-84 against the spread (ATS), while the Orioles were 96-69 ATS.

Red Sox vs. Orioles Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

Moneyline
Red Sox+120
Orioles -155

Red Sox vs Orioles Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Orioles will win Saturday‘s matchup with 51.5% confidence, based on game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.


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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Red Sox Player Prop Bets Today:

  • Ceddanne Rafaela has hit the Hits Under in his last 2 games (+3.80 Units / 190% ROI)
  • David Hamilton has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 3 away games (+3.10 Units / 74% ROI)
  • Rafael Devers has hit the RBIs Over in 2 of his last 3 games (+2.95 Units / 98% ROI)
  • Luis Urias has hit the Runs Over in 2 of his last 3 games (+2.70 Units / 90% ROI)
  • Yu Chang has hit the Runs Under in his last 2 away games (+2.00 Units / 37% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Orioles players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Orioles Player Prop Best Bets Today:

  • Kyle Stowers has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 9 games (+9.25 Units / 73% ROI)
  • Adley Rutschman has hit the Hits Under in his last 3 games (+4.70 Units / 100% ROI)
  • Gunnar Henderson has hit the RBIs Over in his last 2 games (+3.70 Units / 185% ROI)
  • Ryan Mountcastle has hit the Hits Under in his last 2 games (+2.75 Units / 79% ROI)
  • Heston Kjerstad has hit the Singles Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 62% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 15 of their last 19 games (+10.60 Units / 50% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 37 of their last 66 away games (+7.03 Units / 9% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 34 of their last 61 away games (+5.05 Units / 7% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 5 of their last 7 away games (+2.95 Units / 38% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 3 of their last 6 away games (+1.53 Units / 24% ROI)
  • The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Moneyline in 100 of their last 162 games (+33.70 Units / 16% ROI)
  • The Baltimore Orioles have covered the Run Line in 89 of their last 152 games (+23.20 Units / 12% ROI)
  • The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Under in 17 of their last 22 games (+11.60 Units / 48% ROI)
  • The Baltimore Orioles have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 14 of their last 21 games at home (+6.72 Units / 28% ROI)
  • The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Team Total Over in 46 of their last 81 games (+5.39 Units / 6% ROI)

Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread last MLB season, the Red Sox went 78-84 against the Run Line (-20.9 Units / -9.73% ROI).

  • 78-84 when betting on the Moneyline for -14.05 Units / -6.98% ROI
  • 81-75 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.5 Units / -0.84% ROI
  • 75-81 when betting on the total runs Under for -14.7 Units / -8.23% ROI

Orioles Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread last MLB season, the Orioles went 96-69 against the Run Line (+22.15 Units / 10.38% ROI).

  • 101-64 when betting on the Moneyline for +32.75 Units / 15.18% ROI
  • 80-73 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.1 Units / -0.06% ROI
  • 73-80 when betting on the total runs Under for -15.25 Units / -8.35% ROI

Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Orioles

The Red Sox were just 17-25 (.405) after a home loss in the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .508.

The Red Sox were 63-3 (.955) when leading entering the 8th inning in the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .900.

The Red Sox were just 1-72 (.014) when trailing entering the 9th inning in the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .052.

The Red Sox are just 3-138 (.021) when trailing entering the 9th inning since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .049.

Orioles Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox

The Orioles are 54-41 (.568) after a loss as underdogs since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .407.

The Orioles were 72-12 (.857) when they scored 5 or more runs in the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .780.

The Orioles are 55-57 (.491) after a win as underdogs since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .417.

The Orioles were 22-26 (.458) when allowing 2 or more home runs in the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .312.

The Red Sox batted .182 on pitches out of the zone in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .151.

The Red Sox batted .300 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game in the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .267.

Red Sox hitters slugged .266 on pitches out of the zone in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .211.

Red Sox hitters slugged .505 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game in the 2023 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .455.

The Orioles were 36-16 (.692) against the run line (28.5% ROI) after a road win in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .498.

The Orioles are 193-126 (.601) against the run line (12.5% ROI) since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .493.

The Orioles won 64% of their road games in the 2023 season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 48%.

Orioles hitters drew 169 walks in 1,701 PA’s (10%) against LHP in the 2023 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Opponents had a groundball batting average of .265 against Red Sox pitchers with the shift in the 2023 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: .240.

The Red Sox have won 43% of home games in which their opponents scored first since the 2021 season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.

Opponents had a swing rate of 49% against the Red Sox pitchers in the 2023 season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.

Red Sox pitchers have allowed an exit velocity over 110 MPH 208 times since the 2021 season — tied for 4th most in MLB.

The Orioles won 53% of road games in which their opponents scored first in the 2023 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.

The Orioles won 49% of games in which their opponents scored first in the 2023 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 34%.

Orioles pitchers had a strikeout rate of 24% with runners in scoring position in the 2023 season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Orioles pitchers had allowed 177 home runs in the 2023 season — tied for 4th fewest in MLB.

Orioles vs. Red Sox Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Gunnar Henderson (Baltimore Orioles): Oblique, Out
  • Felix Bautista (Baltimore Orioles): Elbow, 60-Day IL
  • Terrin Vavra (Baltimore Orioles): Shoulder, Out
  • John Means (Baltimore Orioles): Elbow, Out
  • Kyle Bradish (Baltimore Orioles): Elbow, Out
  • Shintaro Fujinami (Baltimore Orioles): Personal, Out
  • David Hamilton (Boston Red Sox): Thumb, Out
  • Wyatt Mills (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, Out
  • Vaughn Grissom (Boston Red Sox): Hamstring, Out
  • Michael Fulmer (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, Out
  • Dinelson Lamet (Boston Red Sox): Personal, Day-To-Day
  • Connor Wong (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, Day-To-Day
  • Jarren Duran (Boston Red Sox): Toe, Out
  • Kenley Jansen (Boston Red Sox): Lat, Out

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.