- The Orioles are -135 favorites vs the Red Sox
- Red Sox vs Orioles Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Red Sox / Orioles TV Channel: MASN | NESN
The Boston Red Sox (+115) visit Oriole Park at Camden Yards to take on the Baltimore Orioles (-135) on Thursday, August 15, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 6:35pm EDT in Baltimore, MD.
This season, the Red Sox are 63-56 against the spread (ATS), while the Orioles are 65-56 ATS.
Red Sox vs Orioles Starting Pitchers Today:
- Red Sox starting pitcher: Nick Pivetta 5-7, 4.44 ERA
- Orioles starting pitcher: Zach Eflin 8-7, 3.82 ERA
Red Sox vs. Orioles Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Red Sox | +1.5 -190 | O 8.5 -110 | +115 |
| Orioles | -1.5 +155 | U 8.5 -110 | -135 |
Red Sox vs Orioles Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Orioles will win Thursday‘s MLB game with 55.3% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Red Sox Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jarren Duran has hit the Home Runs Over in 7 of his last 22 away games (+25.30 Units / 115% ROI)
- Ceddanne Rafaela has hit the Runs Over in 29 of his last 50 games (+19.70 Units / 39% ROI)
- Romy Gonzalez has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 16 away games (+14.90 Units / 55% ROI)
- Ceddanne Rafaela has hit the Singles Over in 22 of his last 30 games (+14.45 Units / 43% ROI)
- Ceddanne Rafaela has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 30 of his last 50 games (+10.60 Units / 19% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Orioles players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Orioles Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jackson Holliday has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 13 games (+31.10 Units / 239% ROI)
- Colton Cowser has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 23 of his last 27 games (+20.00 Units / 63% ROI)
- Colton Cowser has hit the Total Bases Over in 19 of his last 25 games (+13.70 Units / 42% ROI)
- Gunnar Henderson has hit the Hits Over in 31 of his last 50 games (+12.75 Units / 16% ROI)
- Colton Cowser has hit the Singles Over in 17 of his last 24 games (+12.20 Units / 49% ROI)
Red Sox Best Bets Today:
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 49 of their last 76 games (+23.60 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Over in 37 of their last 55 away games (+15.50 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 33 of their last 55 away games (+11.20 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 15 of their last 21 games (+9.20 Units / 37% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 67 of their last 119 games (+8.60 Units / 6% ROI)
Orioles Best Bets Today:
- The Baltimore Orioles have covered the Run Line in 61 of their last 112 games (+17.45 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Over in 44 of their last 74 games (+17.05 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 63 of their last 106 games (+12.95 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Team Total Under in 26 of their last 46 games (+4.95 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 6 of their last 8 games (+3.65 Units / 37% ROI)
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Red Sox are 55-64 against the Run Line (-16.65 Units / -10.56% ROI).
- 63-56 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.2 Units / 0.14% ROI
- 63-50 when betting on the total runs Over for +8.45 Units / 6.45% ROI
- 50-63 when betting on the total runs Under for -18.8 Units / -14.36% ROI
Orioles Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Orioles are 65-56 against the Run Line (+17.3 Units / 12.32% ROI).
- 71-50 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.4 Units / 1.38% ROI
- 67-43 when betting on the total runs Over for +20.4 Units / 15.56% ROI
- 43-67 when betting on the total runs Under for -31.15 Units / -23.43% ROI
Orioles vs Red Sox Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Rafael Devers (BOS) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -500 |
| Anthony Santander (BAL) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -550 |
| Wilyer Abreu (BOS) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Gunnar Henderson (BAL) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
| Ryan Mountcastle (BAL) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -800 |
Orioles vs Red Sox Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Rafael Devers (BOS) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Ceddanne Rafaela (BOS) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Connor Wong (BOS) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Masataka Yoshida (BOS) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Gunnar Henderson (BAL) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
Orioles vs Red Sox RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Rafael Devers (BOS) | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -175 |
| Ryan Mountcastle (BAL) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Wilyer Abreu (BOS) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Anthony Santander (BAL) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -225 |
| Ryan O'Hearn (BAL) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
Orioles vs Red Sox Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nick Pivetta (BOS) | 4.5 -155 | 4.5 +115 |
| Zach Eflin (BAL) | 4.5 -135 | 4.5 +100 |
Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting just .109 (10-for-92) against Nick Pivetta when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 47 total IP; League Avg: .241 — 100th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 27% (38/140) against Nick Pivetta this season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 47 total IP; League Avg: 43% — first Percentile.
Nick Pivetta has allowed an OBP of just .177 (594 PA’s) with two-strikes since last season — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 112 total IP; League Avg: .244 — 98th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .127 (71-for-559) against Nick Pivetta with two-strikes since last season — 5th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 112 total IP; League Avg: .171 — 97th Percentile.
Orioles Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Zach Eflin has walked 2 of 198 batters (1%) when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — 100th Percentile.
Zach Eflin has walked 5 of 293 right-handed batters (2%) this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 6% — 100th Percentile.
Zach Eflin has walked 12 of 477 batters (3%) when going through the lineup the first time in a game since last season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — 100th Percentile.
Zach Eflin has walked 15 of 539 batters (3%) this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — 100th Percentile.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Orioles
The Red Sox are just 5-186 (.026) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .050.
The Red Sox are 52-10 (.839) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .729.
The Red Sox are 8-3 (.727) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Red Sox are just 53-177 (.230) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since the 2022 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .279.
Orioles Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Orioles are 57-45 (.559) after a loss as underdogs since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .414.
The Orioles are 19-9 (.679) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Orioles are 33-40 (.452) when allowing 2 or more home runs since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .304.
The Orioles are 55-34 (.618) after a road win since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .484.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
The Red Sox are batting .256 against LHP since the 2022 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .249.
Red Sox hitters have 386 strikeouts in 1,385 PA’s (28%) against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Red Sox are batting .262 with two outs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .235.
The Red Sox are batting .396 in hitter’s counts this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .338.
Orioles Hitting Stats & Trends
Orioles hitters have put just 36% of balls in play to the left side of the field since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 38%.
Orioles hitters are slugging .452 against RHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .401.
Orioles hitters have put just 35% of balls in play to the left side of the field since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 38%.
The Orioles have a winning percentage of 61% since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
Red Sox pitchers have walked 326 of 4,548 batters (7%) this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Red Sox pitchers have walked 65 of 1,074 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 24% against Red Sox pitchers this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Red Sox pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% with runners in scoring position this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Orioles Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .207 against Orioles pitchers with the shift since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .244.
The Orioles have won 46% of road games in which their opponents scored first since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .210 against Orioles pitchers with the shift since the 2022 season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .235.
Orioles pitchers have won 42% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Orioles vs. Red Sox Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Jonathan Heasley (Baltimore Orioles): Shoulder, Out
- Felix Bautista (Baltimore Orioles): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Danny Coulombe (Baltimore Orioles): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- John Means (Baltimore Orioles): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Tyler Wells (Baltimore Orioles): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Kyle Bradish (Baltimore Orioles): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Jorge Mateo (Baltimore Orioles): Elbow, Day-To-Day
- Isaiah Campbell (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 7-Day IL
- Vaughn Grissom (Boston Red Sox): Hamstring, 10-Day IL
- Michael Fulmer (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Chris Murphy (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Trevor Story (Boston Red Sox): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Kenley Jansen (Boston Red Sox): Chest, Day-To-Day
- Brandon Walter (Boston Red Sox): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Chris Martin (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Lucas Giolito (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Justin Slaten (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Garrett Whitlock (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Triston Casas (Boston Red Sox): Ribs, 60-Day IL
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