- The Red Sox are -105 favorites vs the Pirates
- Red Sox vs Pirates Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Red Sox / Pirates TV Channel: NESN | SNPT
The Boston Red Sox (-105) visit PNC Park to take on the Pittsburgh Pirates (-115) on Friday, April 19, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Pittsburgh, PA.
This season, the Red Sox are 10-10 against the spread (ATS), while the Pirates are 12-7 ATS.
Red Sox vs Pirates Starting Pitchers Today:
- Red Sox starting pitcher: Brayan Bello 2-1, 3.86 ERA
- Pirates starting pitcher: Quinn Priester 0-0, 0.00 ERA
Red Sox vs. Pirates Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Red Sox | -1.5 +155 | O 8.5 -115 | -105 |
| Pirates | +1.5 -190 | U 8.5 -105 | -115 |
Red Sox vs Pirates Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Red Sox will win Friday‘s MLB game with 51.9% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Red Sox Player Prop Bets Today:
- Triston Casas has hit the Singles Over in 11 of his last 16 away games (+9.50 Units / 59% ROI)
- Kutter Crawford has hit the Earned Runs Under in 15 of his last 20 games (+9.40 Units / 38% ROI)
- Masataka Yoshida has hit the Total Bases Under in 12 of his last 14 games (+8.95 Units / 35% ROI)
- Kutter Crawford has hit the Strikeouts Over in 10 of his last 12 games (+8.60 Units / 62% ROI)
- Jarren Duran has hit the Singles Over in 14 of his last 19 away games (+8.15 Units / 36% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Edward Olivares has hit the Hits Over in 14 of his last 16 games at home (+10.90 Units / 31% ROI)
- Henry Davis has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 14 of his last 18 games (+9.50 Units / 39% ROI)
- Henry Davis has hit the Total Bases Under in 11 of his last 12 games at home (+9.10 Units / 45% ROI)
- Mitch Keller has hit the Earned Runs Under in 11 of his last 14 games at home (+7.70 Units / 39% ROI)
- Edward Olivares has hit the Runs Over in 6 of his last 7 games at home (+7.30 Units / 104% ROI)
Red Sox Best Bets Today:
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 15 of their last 19 games (+10.60 Units / 50% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 37 of their last 66 away games (+7.03 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 34 of their last 61 away games (+5.05 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 5 of their last 7 away games (+2.95 Units / 38% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 3 of their last 6 away games (+1.53 Units / 24% ROI)
Pirates Best Bets Today:
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Moneyline in 35 of their last 67 games (+15.85 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Over in 69 of their last 120 games (+15.10 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 76 of their last 134 games (+11.44 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 29 of their last 65 games (+10.67 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 39 of their last 63 games (+10.50 Units / 13% ROI)
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Red Sox are 11-9 against the Run Line (+1.75 Units / 6.47% ROI).
- 10-10 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.9 Units / -3.77% ROI
- 9-10 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.9 Units / -8.58% ROI
- 10-9 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.25 Units / 1.14% ROI
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Pirates are 12-7 against the Run Line (+3.1 Units / 11.25% ROI).
- 11-8 when betting on the Moneyline for +4 Units / 19.42% ROI
- 11-8 when betting on the total runs Over for +2.25 Units / 10.77% ROI
- 8-11 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.05 Units / -19.38% ROI
Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 61% (157/259) against Brayan Bello in two-strike counts since the 2022 season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 136 total IP; League Avg: 45% — 99th Percentile.
Left-handed hitters have a line drive rate of just 15% (44/287) against Brayan Bello since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 71 total IP; League Avg: 23% — 98th Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of 37% (11/30) against Brayan Bello on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 8th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — 91st Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 58% (214/368) against Brayan Bello since the 2022 season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 136 total IP; League Avg: 43% — 98th Percentile.
Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Marco Gonzales has a strikeout rate of just 4% (2 SO in 52 PAs) in late innings since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 136 total IP; League Avg: 22% — first Percentile.
Marco Gonzales has an average fastball velocity of just 88.7 MPH since the 2022 season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 136 total IP; League Avg: 93.5 — second Percentile.
Marco Gonzales has a strikeout rate of just 14% (148 SO in 1,067 PAs) since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 136 total IP; League Avg: 23% — first Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a miss rate of just 19% (297/1,542) against Marco Gonzales since the 2022 season — 9th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 136 total IP; League Avg: 26% — seventh Percentile.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Red Sox are just 3-147 (.020) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .049.
The Red Sox are 68-7 (.907) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2023 season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .855.
The Red Sox are just 19-25 (.432) vs the bottom 10 runs allowed teams since the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .573.
The Red Sox are just 40-52 (.435) after a home loss since the 2022 season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .517.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Pirates are just 49-166 (.228) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since the 2022 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .280.
The Pirates are 15-7 (.682) after a loss as favorites since the 2022 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .589.
The Pirates are just 65-15 (.812) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2023 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .855.
The Pirates are just 142-166 (.461) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits since the 2022 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .535.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
Red Sox hitters are slugging .427 against RHP since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .410.
Red Sox hitters have put 43% of balls in play to the right side of the field this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
The Red Sox are batting just .198 at home this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .241.
Red Sox hitters have an OPS of 1.280 (129 PA’s) with the pitcher behind in the count this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 1.079.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
Pirates hitters are slugging just .498 on the first pitch of at-bats since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .576.
The Pirates are batting just .233 against LHP since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .249.
The Pirates are batting just .127 on pitches out of the zone since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .154.
Pirates hitters are slugging just .179 on pitches out of the zone since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .213.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
Red Sox pitchers have an ERA of 1.49 (90.1 IP) on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.05.
Red Sox pitchers have an ERA of 2.75 (183.1 IP) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.03.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Red Sox pitchers this season — tied for 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Red Sox pitchers have walked 53 of 767 batters (7%) this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of 27% against Pirates pitchers this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Pirates pitchers are throwing just 3.60 pitches per plate appearance this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 3.91.
Pirates pitchers have walked 1,234 of 13,215 batters (9%) since the 2022 season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates pitchers have a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Pirates vs. Red Sox Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Miguel Andujar (Pittsburgh Pirates): Knee, 10-Day IL
- Colin Holderman (Pittsburgh Pirates): Illness, 15-Day IL
- Johan Oviedo (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Dauri Moreta (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Carmen Mlodzinski (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Vince Velasquez (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, Out
- Mike Burrows (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, Out
- JT Brubaker (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Max Kranick (Pittsburgh Pirates): Hamstring, 15-Day IL
- Endy Rodriguez (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Ji Hwan Bae (Pittsburgh Pirates): Hip, 10-Day IL
- Wyatt Mills (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Vaughn Grissom (Boston Red Sox): Hamstring, 10-Day IL
- Michael Fulmer (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Zack Kelly (Boston Red Sox): Oblique, Day-To-Day
- Bryan Mata (Boston Red Sox): Hamstring, 15-Day IL
- Chris Murphy (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Kenley Jansen (Boston Red Sox): Back, Day-To-Day
- Brandon Walter (Boston Red Sox): Shoulder, 7-Day IL
- Lucas Giolito (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Rob Refsnyder (Boston Red Sox): Toe, 10-Day IL
- Yu Chang (Boston Red Sox): Oblique, Out
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