- The Pirates are -150 favorites vs the Red Sox
- Red Sox vs Pirates Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Red Sox / Pirates TV Channel: NESN | SNPT
The Boston Red Sox (+125) visit PNC Park to take on the Pittsburgh Pirates (-150) on Sunday, April 21, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 1:35pm EDT in Pittsburgh, PA.
This season, the Red Sox are 12-10 against the spread (ATS), while the Pirates are 12-9 ATS.
Red Sox vs Pirates Starting Pitchers Today:
- Red Sox starting pitcher: Josh Winckowski 1-1, 4.50 ERA
- Pirates starting pitcher: Martin Perez 1-0, 2.56 ERA
Red Sox vs. Pirates Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Red Sox | +1.5 -160 | O 8.5 -110 | +125 |
| Pirates | -1.5 +135 | U 8.5 -110 | -150 |
Red Sox vs Pirates Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Pirates will win Sunday‘s MLB game with 55.3% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Red Sox Player Prop Bets Today:
- Pablo Reyes has hit the Hits Under in 11 of his last 18 games (+8.70 Units / 48% ROI)
- Pablo Reyes has hit the Total Bases Under in 10 of his last 13 games (+7.65 Units / 40% ROI)
- Pablo Reyes has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 13 of his last 18 games (+6.35 Units / 26% ROI)
- Brayan Bello has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 16 of his last 25 games (+6.10 Units / 20% ROI)
- David Hamilton has hit the Hits Under in 12 of his last 19 games (+5.85 Units / 29% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Henry Davis has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 15 of his last 19 games (+10.50 Units / 40% ROI)
- Henry Davis has hit the Total Bases Under in 11 of his last 13 games at home (+8.10 Units / 38% ROI)
- Henry Davis has hit the Hits Under in 7 of his last 11 games at home (+5.15 Units / 47% ROI)
- Alika Williams has hit the Total Bases Over in 6 of his last 7 games (+5.00 Units / 62% ROI)
- Alika Williams has hit the Hits Over in 6 of his last 7 games (+4.95 Units / 61% ROI)
Red Sox Best Bets Today:
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 15 of their last 19 games (+10.60 Units / 50% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 37 of their last 66 away games (+7.03 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 34 of their last 61 away games (+5.05 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 5 of their last 7 away games (+2.95 Units / 38% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 3 of their last 6 away games (+1.53 Units / 24% ROI)
Pirates Best Bets Today:
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Moneyline in 35 of their last 67 games (+15.85 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Over in 69 of their last 120 games (+15.10 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 76 of their last 134 games (+11.44 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 29 of their last 65 games (+10.67 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 39 of their last 63 games (+10.50 Units / 13% ROI)
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Red Sox are 13-9 against the Run Line (+3.75 Units / 12% ROI).
- 12-10 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.1 Units / 4.25% ROI
- 10-11 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.05 Units / -8.44% ROI
- 11-10 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.05 Units / 0.21% ROI
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Pirates are 12-9 against the Run Line (+1.1 Units / 3.72% ROI).
- 11-10 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.65 Units / 7.19% ROI
- 12-9 when betting on the total runs Over for +2.1 Units / 9.11% ROI
- 9-12 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.25 Units / -18.36% ROI
Pirates vs Red Sox Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bobby Dalbec (BOS) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Jack Suwinski (PIT) | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
| Ceddanne Rafaela (BOS) | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Connor Wong (BOS) | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Bryan Reynolds (PIT) | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1000 |
Pirates vs Red Sox Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Ke'Bryan Hayes (PIT) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Rob Refsnyder (BOS) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Bryan Reynolds (PIT) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Ceddanne Rafaela (BOS) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Masataka Yoshida (BOS) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
Pirates vs Red Sox RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Ke'Bryan Hayes (PIT) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Bobby Dalbec (BOS) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Jack Suwinski (PIT) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Rob Refsnyder (BOS) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Ceddanne Rafaela (BOS) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting just .130 against Josh Winckowski vs right-handed batters this season — tied for eighth best among qualified RPs– 93rd Percentile. Right handed batters hit .287 (56-for-195) against him last season — 10th worst among qualified RPs– 10th Percentile.
Left-handed batters are hitting .481 (13-for-27) against Josh Winckowski this season — highest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: .229 — 0 Percentile.
Josh Winckowski allowed a batting average of just .130 vs right-handed batters (tied for eighth best)– 93rd Percentile and .481 vs left-handed batters this season (worst among qualified RPs)– 0 Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .285 (190-for-666) against Josh Winckowski since the 2022 season — 5th highest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: .230 — second Percentile.
Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Martin Perez has located his fastball inside 62% of the time (87/141) this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 34% — 98th Percentile.
Martin Perez has located his fastball inside 62% of the time (87/141) this season — highest among in NL; League Avg: 35% — 100th Percentile.
Martin Perez has located his fastball inside 62% of the time (87/141) this season — highest among in NL; League Avg: 35% — 100th Percentile.
Martin Perez has thrown inside pitches 47% of the time (42/90) with two-strikes this season — highest among in NL; League Avg: 31% — 100th Percentile.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Red Sox are just 19-31 (.380) after a home loss since the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .509.
The Red Sox are just 1-81 (.012) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .052.
The Red Sox are just 35-65 (.350) after a loss as underdogs since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .409.
The Red Sox are just 3-147 (.020) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .049.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Pirates are just 49-168 (.226) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since the 2022 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .280.
The Pirates are 15-8 (.652) after a loss as favorites since the 2022 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .589.
The Pirates are just 12-19 (.387) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Pirates are just 120-61 (.663) when allowing 4 or fewer runs since the 2022 season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .720.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
Red Sox hitters are slugging .800 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .559.
Red Sox hitters have an OPS of .749 (5,220 PA’s) against RHP since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .728.
The Red Sox are batting .288 with two outs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .230.
The Red Sox are batting .177 on pitches out of the zone since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .152.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
The Pirates are batting just .233 against LHP since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .249.
Pirates hitters have 381 strikeouts in 1,128 PA’s (34%) in lefty-lefty matchups since the 2022 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Pirates hitters are slugging just .178 on pitches out of the zone since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .213.
Pirates hitters have 72 strikeouts in 260 PA’s (28%) against LHP this season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
Red Sox pitchers have an ERA of 1.50 (108.1 IP) on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.08.
Red Sox pitchers have a strikeout rate of 33% when going through the lineup the third time in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 19%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Red Sox pitchers since last season — tied for 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Red Sox pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% this season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Pirates pitchers are throwing just 3.61 pitches per plate appearance this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 3.92.
Pirates pitchers have a strikeout rate of 44% with two-strikes this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
The Pirates have won 42% of road games in which their opponents scored first since last season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 30%.
Pirates pitchers have walked 1,244 of 13,297 batters (9%) since the 2022 season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates vs. Red Sox Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Miguel Andujar (Pittsburgh Pirates): Knee, 10-Day IL
- Colin Holderman (Pittsburgh Pirates): Illness, 15-Day IL
- Johan Oviedo (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Dauri Moreta (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Carmen Mlodzinski (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Vince Velasquez (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, Out
- Mike Burrows (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, Out
- JT Brubaker (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Max Kranick (Pittsburgh Pirates): Hamstring, 15-Day IL
- Endy Rodriguez (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Ji Hwan Bae (Pittsburgh Pirates): Hip, 10-Day IL
- Wyatt Mills (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Vaughn Grissom (Boston Red Sox): Hamstring, 10-Day IL
- Michael Fulmer (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Zack Kelly (Boston Red Sox): Oblique, Day-To-Day
- Bryan Mata (Boston Red Sox): Hamstring, 15-Day IL
- Chris Murphy (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Kenley Jansen (Boston Red Sox): Back, Day-To-Day
- Brandon Walter (Boston Red Sox): Shoulder, 7-Day IL
- Lucas Giolito (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Rob Refsnyder (Boston Red Sox): Toe, 10-Day IL
- Yu Chang (Boston Red Sox): Oblique, Out
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