- The Red Sox are -110 favorites vs the Twins
- Red Sox vs Twins Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Red Sox / Twins TV Channel: BSNO | NESN
The Boston Red Sox (-105) visit Target Field to take on the Minnesota Twins (-115) on Friday, May 3, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10pm EDT in Minneapolis, MN.
This season, the Red Sox are 18-14 against the spread (ATS), while the Twins are 15-15 ATS.
Red Sox vs Twins Starting Pitchers Today:
- Red Sox starting pitcher: Tanner Houck 3-2, 1.59 ERA
- Twins starting pitcher: Chris Paddack 2-1, 5.89 ERA
Red Sox vs. Twins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Red Sox | -1.5 +165 | O 8 -115 | -105 |
| Twins | +1.5 -200 | U 8 -105 | -115 |
Red Sox vs Twins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Red Sox will win Friday‘s MLB game with 51.6% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Red Sox Player Prop Bets Today:
- Connor Wong has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 12 games (+14.50 Units / 121% ROI)
- Wilyer Abreu has hit the RBIs Over in 9 of his last 11 games (+13.60 Units / 124% ROI)
- Ceddanne Rafaela has hit the Total Bases Under in 19 of his last 26 games (+13.60 Units / 41% ROI)
- Ceddanne Rafaela has hit the Singles Under in 19 of his last 26 games (+9.25 Units / 23% ROI)
- Ceddanne Rafaela has hit the Hits Under in 15 of his last 26 games (+8.55 Units / 33% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Twins Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Carlos Santana has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 7 games (+16.60 Units / 237% ROI)
- Willi Castro has hit the Total Bases Over in 12 of his last 14 games (+11.40 Units / 61% ROI)
- Willi Castro has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 14 games (+11.05 Units / 43% ROI)
- Carlos Santana has hit the RBIs Over in 6 of his last 9 games (+7.60 Units / 84% ROI)
- Willi Castro has hit the Singles Over in 10 of his last 14 games (+7.35 Units / 52% ROI)
Red Sox Best Bets Today:
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 15 of their last 19 games (+10.60 Units / 50% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 37 of their last 66 away games (+7.03 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 34 of their last 61 away games (+5.05 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 5 of their last 7 away games (+2.95 Units / 38% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 3 of their last 6 away games (+1.53 Units / 24% ROI)
Twins Best Bets Today:
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the Run Line in 31 of their last 50 games (+14.40 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 47 of their last 78 games (+13.95 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Team Total Over in 48 of their last 77 games (+13.50 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 25 of their last 40 games at home (+7.65 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Moneyline in 28 of their last 45 games at home (+2.85 Units / 4% ROI)
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Red Sox are 18-14 against the Run Line (+1.9 Units / 4.16% ROI).
- 18-14 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.5 Units / 9.36% ROI
- 13-17 when betting on the total runs Over for -5.5 Units / -15.71% ROI
- 17-13 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.65 Units / 7.49% ROI
Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Twins are 15-15 against the Run Line (-2.05 Units / -5.16% ROI).
- 17-13 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.05 Units / 2.59% ROI
- 15-12 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.75 Units / 5.43% ROI
- 12-15 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.4 Units / -13.92% ROI
Twins vs Red Sox Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Rafael Devers (BOS) | 0.5 +333 | 0.5 -450 |
| Tyler O'Neill (BOS) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Max Kepler (MIN) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -700 |
| Ryan Jeffers (MIN) | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
| Trevor Larnach (MIN) | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -900 |
Twins vs Red Sox Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Kirilloff (MIN) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Max Kepler (MIN) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Tyler O'Neill (BOS) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Wilyer Abreu (BOS) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +175 |
| Garrett Cooper (CHC) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
Twins vs Red Sox RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Rafael Devers (BOS) | 0.5 +115 | 0.5 -150 |
| Max Kepler (MIN) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Tyler O'Neill (BOS) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Dominic Smith (CHI) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Carlos Correa (MIN) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
Twins vs Red Sox Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Left-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 62% (37/60) against Tanner Houck this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — 98th Percentile.
Tanner Houck has walked 5 of 155 batters (3%) this season — 4th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 8% — 96th Percentile.
Tanner Houck has not walked any of the 54 batters that he has faced when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — tied for best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 8% — 100th Percentile.
Tanner Houck has allowed a slugging percentage of just .265 (39 Total Bases / 147 ABs) this season — 5th best among in MLB; League Avg: .383 — 91st Percentile.
Twins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Chris Paddack has allowed a slugging percentage of .647 (22 Total Bases / 34 ABs) on low non-fastballs this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 11 total IP; League Avg: .298 — first Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .444 (8-for-18) against Chris Paddack when going through the lineup the second time in a game — highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .214 — first Percentile.
Chris Paddack has allowed a slugging percentage of .623 (38 Total Bases / 61 ABs) on non-fastballs this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 11 total IP; League Avg: .352 — first Percentile.
Chris Paddack has allowed a slugging percentage of .714 (30 Total Bases / 42 ABs) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 11 total IP; League Avg: .381 — first Percentile.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Twins
The Red Sox are just 37-66 (.359) after a loss as underdogs since the 2022 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .410.
The Red Sox are 76-7 (.916) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2023 season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .857.
The Red Sox are just 3-151 (.019) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .049.
The Red Sox are 80-5 (.941) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .898.
Twins Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Twins are just 16-29 (.356) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Twins are just 20-36 (.357) after a win as underdogs since the 2022 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .413.
The Twins are 151-4 (.974) when leading entering the 9th inning since the 2022 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .951.
The Twins are 21-60 (.259) when trailing entering the 7th inning since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .143.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
Red Sox hitters have 94 strikeouts in 322 PA’s (29%) against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Red Sox hitters have put just 31% of their swings in play against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Red Sox hitters have an OPS of 1.393 (215 PA’s) with the pitcher behind in the count this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 1.058.
The Red Sox are batting .272 at home since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Twins Hitting Stats & Trends
Twins hitters have an OPS of .989 (173 PA’s) in innings 7-9 over the last 14 days — best in MLB; League Avg: .652.
The Twins are batting just .150 with two-strikes since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .171.
Twins hitters have an OBP of just .283 (113 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .328.
Twins hitters are slugging just .165 on pitches out of the zone since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .212.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
Red Sox pitchers have an ERA of 1.77 (142.1 IP) on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 3.95.
Red Sox pitchers have walked 79 of 1,184 batters (7%) this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Red Sox pitchers have walked 13 of 290 batters (4%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Red Sox pitchers have allowed a slugging percentage of just .327 this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .383.
Twins Pitching Stats & Trends
Twins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Twins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% with runners in scoring position since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Twins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 30% versus the bottom of the order this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Twins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Twins vs. Red Sox Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Zack Weiss (Minnesota Twins): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Jhoan Duran (Minnesota Twins): Oblique, 15-Day IL
- Anthony DeSclafani (Minnesota Twins): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Matt Canterino (Minnesota Twins): Shoulder, 7-Day IL
- Trevor Larnach (Minnesota Twins): Toe, 7-Day IL
- Royce Lewis (Minnesota Twins): Quadriceps, 10-Day IL
- Max Kepler (Minnesota Twins): Leg, Day-To-Day
- Jovani Moran (Minnesota Twins): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Josh Staumont (Minnesota Twins): Calf, 15-Day IL
- Caleb Thielbar (Minnesota Twins): Hamstring, 15-Day IL
- Justin Topa (Minnesota Twins): Kneecap, 15-Day IL
- Jose De Leon (Minnesota Twins): Elbow, Out
- Josh Winder (Minnesota Twins): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Wyatt Mills (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Vaughn Grissom (Boston Red Sox): Hamstring, 10-Day IL
- Michael Fulmer (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Zack Kelly (Boston Red Sox): Oblique, Day-To-Day
- Bryan Mata (Boston Red Sox): Hamstring, 15-Day IL
- Chris Murphy (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Kenley Jansen (Boston Red Sox): Back, Day-To-Day
- Brandon Walter (Boston Red Sox): Shoulder, 7-Day IL
- Lucas Giolito (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Rob Refsnyder (Boston Red Sox): Toe, 10-Day IL
- Yu Chang (Boston Red Sox): Oblique, Out
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