Red Sox vs Twins Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, May 4

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Minnesota Twins shortstop Carlos Correa walks to the dugout after an at-bat in Game 2 of an American League Division Series baseball game against the Houston Astros in Houston, Sunday, Oct. 8, 2023.
(AP Photo/Tony Gutierrez)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM May 04, 2024, 11:02 AM
  • The Twins are -165 favorites vs the Red Sox
  • Red Sox vs Twins Over / Under today: 8 Runs
  • Red Sox / Twins TV Channel: BSNO | NESN | MLBN

The Boston Red Sox (+140) visit Target Field to take on the Minnesota Twins (-165) on Saturday, May 4, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 2:10pm EDT in Minneapolis, MN.

This season, the Red Sox are 18-15 against the spread (ATS), while the Twins are 16-15 ATS.

Red Sox vs Twins Starting Pitchers Today:

  • Red Sox starting pitcher: Brennan Bernardino 0-1, 0.73 ERA
  • Twins starting pitcher: Pablo Lopez 2-2, 4.89 ERA

Red Sox vs. Twins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Red Sox+1.5 -150O 8 -125+140
Twins -1.5 +125U 8 -105-165

Red Sox vs Twins Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Twins will win Saturday‘s MLB game with 57.9% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.


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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Red Sox Player Prop Bets Today:

  • Connor Wong has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 12 games (+14.50 Units / 121% ROI)
  • Wilyer Abreu has hit the RBIs Over in 9 of his last 12 games (+12.60 Units / 105% ROI)
  • Ceddanne Rafaela has hit the Total Bases Under in 19 of his last 27 games (+12.60 Units / 37% ROI)
  • Jarren Duran has hit the Hits Under in 16 of his last 20 games (+8.95 Units / 22% ROI)
  • Ceddanne Rafaela has hit the Singles Under in 19 of his last 27 games (+7.90 Units / 19% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Twins Player Prop Best Bets Today:

  • Carlos Santana has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 8 games (+15.60 Units / 195% ROI)
  • Willi Castro has hit the Total Bases Over in 13 of his last 15 games (+12.40 Units / 60% ROI)
  • Willi Castro has hit the Hits Over in 14 of his last 15 games (+12.05 Units / 44% ROI)
  • Austin Martin has hit the Runs Over in 7 of his last 9 games (+10.00 Units / 111% ROI)
  • Willi Castro has hit the Singles Over in 11 of his last 15 games (+8.45 Units / 56% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 15 of their last 19 games (+10.60 Units / 50% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 37 of their last 66 away games (+7.03 Units / 9% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 34 of their last 61 away games (+5.05 Units / 7% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 5 of their last 7 away games (+2.95 Units / 38% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 3 of their last 6 away games (+1.53 Units / 24% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Twins have covered the Run Line in 31 of their last 50 games (+14.40 Units / 24% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 47 of their last 78 games (+13.95 Units / 16% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Twins have hit the Team Total Over in 48 of their last 77 games (+13.50 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 25 of their last 40 games at home (+7.65 Units / 16% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Twins have hit the Moneyline in 28 of their last 45 games at home (+2.85 Units / 4% ROI)

Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Red Sox are 18-15 against the Run Line (-0.15 Units / -0.31% ROI).

  • 18-15 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.5 Units / 6.51% ROI
  • 13-18 when betting on the total runs Over for -6.6 Units / -18.28% ROI
  • 18-13 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.65 Units / 10% ROI

Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Twins are 16-15 against the Run Line (-0.25 Units / -0.61% ROI).

  • 18-13 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.05 Units / 4.92% ROI
  • 15-13 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.65 Units / 1.95% ROI
  • 13-15 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.4 Units / -10.4% ROI

Twins vs Red Sox Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Rafael Devers (BOS) 0.5 +425 0.5 -600
Ryan Jeffers (MIN) 0.5 +475 0.5 -700
Tyler O'Neill (BOS) 0.5 +525 0.5 -750
Carlos Correa (MIN) 0.5 +550 0.5 -800
Jose Miranda (MIN) 0.5 +625 0.5 -1000

Twins vs Red Sox Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Jarren Duran (BOS) 0.5 -250 0.5 +185
Rafael Devers (BOS) 0.5 -225 0.5 +170
Carlos Correa (MIN) 0.5 -225 0.5 +160
Ryan Jeffers (MIN) 0.5 -190 0.5 +145
Jose Miranda (MIN) 0.5 -190 0.5 +145

Twins vs Red Sox RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Rafael Devers (BOS) 0.5 +180 0.5 -250
Carlos Correa (MIN) 0.5 +185 0.5 -250
Carlos Santana (MIN) 0.5 +190 0.5 -250
Tyler O'Neill (BOS) 0.5 +200 0.5 -275
Ryan Jeffers (MIN) 0.5 +200 0.5 -275

Twins vs Red Sox Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under

Left-handed batters are hitting just .163 (16-for-98) against Brennan Bernardino since last season — tied for 5th best among AL Relievers; League Avg: .232 — 95th Percentile.

Brennan Bernardino has allowed an OBP of just .241 (108 PA’s) vs left-handed batters since last season — 2nd best among AL Relievers; League Avg: .320 — 98th Percentile.

Opponents have a chase percentage of just 20% (95/487) against Brennan Bernardino since last season — lowest among AL Relievers; League Avg: 30% — first Percentile.

Right-handed hitters have a chase rate of just 19% (59/312) against Brennan Bernardino since last season — lowest among AL Relievers; League Avg: 31% — first Percentile.

Twins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Pablo Lopez has not walked any of the 54 batters that he has faced when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — tied for best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — 100th Percentile.

Opponents are hitting just .062 (1-for-16) against Pablo Lopez’s elevated fastball this season — tied for 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .204 — 98th Percentile.

Pablo Lopez’s K:BB ratio is 9.5 (19/2) vs left-handed batters this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 2.7 — 100th Percentile.

Opposing hitters have a chase rate of 42% (20/48) against Pablo Lopez when he’s behind in the count this season — highest among among AL Starters; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.

Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Twins

The Red Sox are just 1-86 (.011) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .052.

The Red Sox are 80-5 (.941) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .898.

The Red Sox are just 20-83 (.194) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since the 2023 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .268.

The Red Sox are just 41-53 (.436) after a home loss since the 2022 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .517.

Twins Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox

The Twins are 21-60 (.259) when trailing entering the 7th inning since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .144.

The Twins are just 16-29 (.356) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Twins are 15-70 (.176) when trailing entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .102.

The Twins are 27-122 (.181) when trailing entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .133.

Red Sox hitters have 95 strikeouts in 324 PA’s (29%) against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Red Sox hitters have an OPS of 1.382 (219 PA’s) with the pitcher behind in the count this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 1.054.

Red Sox hitters have put just 30% of their swings in play against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.

The Red Sox are batting .178 on pitches out of the zone since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .152.

The Twins have scored 2.26 runs per game (70/31) in late innings this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 1.40.

Twins hitters have an OPS of .836 (404 PA’s) in innings 7-9 this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .668.

Twins hitters have an OPS of 1.031 (175 PA’s) in innings 7-9 over the last 14 days — best in MLB; League Avg: .643.

Twins hitters have 74 extra-base hits out of 173 total hits (43%) against RHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 34%.

Red Sox pitchers have walked 14 of 298 batters (5%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Red Sox pitchers have walked 83 of 1,220 batters (7%) this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.

The Red Sox have allowed 2.53 runs per game (43/17) on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.22.

The Red Sox pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 33% of their games this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.

Twins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Twins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% with runners in scoring position this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 21%.

Twins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Twins pitchers have walked 79 of 1,152 batters (7%) this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.

Twins vs. Red Sox Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Zack Weiss (Minnesota Twins): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
  • Jhoan Duran (Minnesota Twins): Oblique, 15-Day IL
  • Anthony DeSclafani (Minnesota Twins): Elbow, 60-Day IL
  • Matt Canterino (Minnesota Twins): Shoulder, 7-Day IL
  • Trevor Larnach (Minnesota Twins): Toe, 7-Day IL
  • Royce Lewis (Minnesota Twins): Quadriceps, 10-Day IL
  • Max Kepler (Minnesota Twins): Leg, Day-To-Day
  • Jovani Moran (Minnesota Twins): Elbow, 60-Day IL
  • Josh Staumont (Minnesota Twins): Calf, 15-Day IL
  • Caleb Thielbar (Minnesota Twins): Hamstring, 15-Day IL
  • Justin Topa (Minnesota Twins): Kneecap, 15-Day IL
  • Jose De Leon (Minnesota Twins): Elbow, Out
  • Josh Winder (Minnesota Twins): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
  • Wyatt Mills (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
  • Vaughn Grissom (Boston Red Sox): Hamstring, 10-Day IL
  • Michael Fulmer (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
  • Zack Kelly (Boston Red Sox): Oblique, Day-To-Day
  • Bryan Mata (Boston Red Sox): Hamstring, 15-Day IL
  • Chris Murphy (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
  • Kenley Jansen (Boston Red Sox): Back, Day-To-Day
  • Brandon Walter (Boston Red Sox): Shoulder, 7-Day IL
  • Lucas Giolito (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
  • Rob Refsnyder (Boston Red Sox): Toe, 10-Day IL
  • Yu Chang (Boston Red Sox): Oblique, Out

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.