- The Twins are -165 favorites vs the Red Sox
- Red Sox vs Twins Over / Under today: 8 Runs
- Red Sox / Twins TV Channel: BSNO | NESN | MLBN
The Boston Red Sox (+140) visit Target Field to take on the Minnesota Twins (-165) on Saturday, May 4, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 2:10pm EDT in Minneapolis, MN.
This season, the Red Sox are 18-15 against the spread (ATS), while the Twins are 16-15 ATS.
Red Sox vs Twins Starting Pitchers Today:
- Red Sox starting pitcher: Brennan Bernardino 0-1, 0.73 ERA
- Twins starting pitcher: Pablo Lopez 2-2, 4.89 ERA
Red Sox vs. Twins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Red Sox | +1.5 -150 | O 8 -125 | +140 |
| Twins | -1.5 +125 | U 8 -105 | -165 |
Red Sox vs Twins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Twins will win Saturday‘s MLB game with 57.9% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
Bet now on Red Sox vs Twins and all games with BetMGM
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Red Sox Player Prop Bets Today:
- Connor Wong has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 12 games (+14.50 Units / 121% ROI)
- Wilyer Abreu has hit the RBIs Over in 9 of his last 12 games (+12.60 Units / 105% ROI)
- Ceddanne Rafaela has hit the Total Bases Under in 19 of his last 27 games (+12.60 Units / 37% ROI)
- Jarren Duran has hit the Hits Under in 16 of his last 20 games (+8.95 Units / 22% ROI)
- Ceddanne Rafaela has hit the Singles Under in 19 of his last 27 games (+7.90 Units / 19% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Twins Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Carlos Santana has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 8 games (+15.60 Units / 195% ROI)
- Willi Castro has hit the Total Bases Over in 13 of his last 15 games (+12.40 Units / 60% ROI)
- Willi Castro has hit the Hits Over in 14 of his last 15 games (+12.05 Units / 44% ROI)
- Austin Martin has hit the Runs Over in 7 of his last 9 games (+10.00 Units / 111% ROI)
- Willi Castro has hit the Singles Over in 11 of his last 15 games (+8.45 Units / 56% ROI)
Red Sox Best Bets Today:
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 15 of their last 19 games (+10.60 Units / 50% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 37 of their last 66 away games (+7.03 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 34 of their last 61 away games (+5.05 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 5 of their last 7 away games (+2.95 Units / 38% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 3 of their last 6 away games (+1.53 Units / 24% ROI)
Twins Best Bets Today:
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the Run Line in 31 of their last 50 games (+14.40 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 47 of their last 78 games (+13.95 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Team Total Over in 48 of their last 77 games (+13.50 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 25 of their last 40 games at home (+7.65 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Moneyline in 28 of their last 45 games at home (+2.85 Units / 4% ROI)
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Red Sox are 18-15 against the Run Line (-0.15 Units / -0.31% ROI).
- 18-15 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.5 Units / 6.51% ROI
- 13-18 when betting on the total runs Over for -6.6 Units / -18.28% ROI
- 18-13 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.65 Units / 10% ROI
Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Twins are 16-15 against the Run Line (-0.25 Units / -0.61% ROI).
- 18-13 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.05 Units / 4.92% ROI
- 15-13 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.65 Units / 1.95% ROI
- 13-15 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.4 Units / -10.4% ROI
Twins vs Red Sox Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Rafael Devers (BOS) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Ryan Jeffers (MIN) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -700 |
| Tyler O'Neill (BOS) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
| Carlos Correa (MIN) | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
| Jose Miranda (MIN) | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1000 |
Twins vs Red Sox Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jarren Duran (BOS) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Rafael Devers (BOS) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Carlos Correa (MIN) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +160 |
| Ryan Jeffers (MIN) | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
| Jose Miranda (MIN) | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
Twins vs Red Sox RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Rafael Devers (BOS) | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
| Carlos Correa (MIN) | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
| Carlos Santana (MIN) | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
| Tyler O'Neill (BOS) | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
| Ryan Jeffers (MIN) | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
Twins vs Red Sox Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Left-handed batters are hitting just .163 (16-for-98) against Brennan Bernardino since last season — tied for 5th best among AL Relievers; League Avg: .232 — 95th Percentile.
Brennan Bernardino has allowed an OBP of just .241 (108 PA’s) vs left-handed batters since last season — 2nd best among AL Relievers; League Avg: .320 — 98th Percentile.
Opponents have a chase percentage of just 20% (95/487) against Brennan Bernardino since last season — lowest among AL Relievers; League Avg: 30% — first Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a chase rate of just 19% (59/312) against Brennan Bernardino since last season — lowest among AL Relievers; League Avg: 31% — first Percentile.
Twins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Pablo Lopez has not walked any of the 54 batters that he has faced when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — tied for best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .062 (1-for-16) against Pablo Lopez’s elevated fastball this season — tied for 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .204 — 98th Percentile.
Pablo Lopez’s K:BB ratio is 9.5 (19/2) vs left-handed batters this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 2.7 — 100th Percentile.
Opposing hitters have a chase rate of 42% (20/48) against Pablo Lopez when he’s behind in the count this season — highest among among AL Starters; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Twins
The Red Sox are just 1-86 (.011) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .052.
The Red Sox are 80-5 (.941) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .898.
The Red Sox are just 20-83 (.194) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since the 2023 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .268.
The Red Sox are just 41-53 (.436) after a home loss since the 2022 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .517.
Twins Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Twins are 21-60 (.259) when trailing entering the 7th inning since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .144.
The Twins are just 16-29 (.356) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Twins are 15-70 (.176) when trailing entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .102.
The Twins are 27-122 (.181) when trailing entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .133.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
Red Sox hitters have 95 strikeouts in 324 PA’s (29%) against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Red Sox hitters have an OPS of 1.382 (219 PA’s) with the pitcher behind in the count this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 1.054.
Red Sox hitters have put just 30% of their swings in play against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
The Red Sox are batting .178 on pitches out of the zone since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .152.
Twins Hitting Stats & Trends
The Twins have scored 2.26 runs per game (70/31) in late innings this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 1.40.
Twins hitters have an OPS of .836 (404 PA’s) in innings 7-9 this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .668.
Twins hitters have an OPS of 1.031 (175 PA’s) in innings 7-9 over the last 14 days — best in MLB; League Avg: .643.
Twins hitters have 74 extra-base hits out of 173 total hits (43%) against RHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 34%.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
Red Sox pitchers have walked 14 of 298 batters (5%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Red Sox pitchers have walked 83 of 1,220 batters (7%) this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
The Red Sox have allowed 2.53 runs per game (43/17) on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.22.
The Red Sox pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 33% of their games this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Twins Pitching Stats & Trends
Twins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Twins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% with runners in scoring position this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 21%.
Twins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Twins pitchers have walked 79 of 1,152 batters (7%) this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Twins vs. Red Sox Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Zack Weiss (Minnesota Twins): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Jhoan Duran (Minnesota Twins): Oblique, 15-Day IL
- Anthony DeSclafani (Minnesota Twins): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Matt Canterino (Minnesota Twins): Shoulder, 7-Day IL
- Trevor Larnach (Minnesota Twins): Toe, 7-Day IL
- Royce Lewis (Minnesota Twins): Quadriceps, 10-Day IL
- Max Kepler (Minnesota Twins): Leg, Day-To-Day
- Jovani Moran (Minnesota Twins): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Josh Staumont (Minnesota Twins): Calf, 15-Day IL
- Caleb Thielbar (Minnesota Twins): Hamstring, 15-Day IL
- Justin Topa (Minnesota Twins): Kneecap, 15-Day IL
- Jose De Leon (Minnesota Twins): Elbow, Out
- Josh Winder (Minnesota Twins): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Wyatt Mills (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Vaughn Grissom (Boston Red Sox): Hamstring, 10-Day IL
- Michael Fulmer (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Zack Kelly (Boston Red Sox): Oblique, Day-To-Day
- Bryan Mata (Boston Red Sox): Hamstring, 15-Day IL
- Chris Murphy (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Kenley Jansen (Boston Red Sox): Back, Day-To-Day
- Brandon Walter (Boston Red Sox): Shoulder, 7-Day IL
- Lucas Giolito (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Rob Refsnyder (Boston Red Sox): Toe, 10-Day IL
- Yu Chang (Boston Red Sox): Oblique, Out
Bet now on Red Sox vs Twins and all games with BetMGM
Bet on MLB Odds at BetMGM
Sportsbook promos are always available at BetMGM. For new customers, check out the sportsbook welcome offer and BetMGM Refer a Friend. For existing customers, there are Odds Boosts, Parlay Boosts, contests and more.
