- The Twins are -175 favorites vs the Red Sox
- Red Sox vs Twins Over / Under today: 7.5 Runs
- Red Sox / Twins TV Channel: BSNO | NESN | ESPN+
The Boston Red Sox (+145) visit Target Field to take on the Minnesota Twins (-175) on Sunday, May 5, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 2:10pm EDT in Minneapolis, MN.
This season, the Red Sox are 18-16 against the spread (ATS), while the Twins are 17-15 ATS.
Red Sox vs Twins Starting Pitchers Today:
- Red Sox starting pitcher: Cooper Criswell 2-1, 1.69 ERA
- Twins starting pitcher: Joe Ryan 1-1, 3.41 ERA
Red Sox vs. Twins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Red Sox | +1.5 -145 | O 7.5 -105 | +145 |
| Twins | -1.5 +120 | U 7.5 -115 | -175 |
Red Sox vs Twins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Twins will win Sunday‘s MLB game with 56.4% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Red Sox Player Prop Bets Today:
- Ceddanne Rafaela has hit the Total Bases Under in 19 of his last 28 games (+11.40 Units / 32% ROI)
- Jarren Duran has hit the Hits Under in 17 of his last 21 games (+10.85 Units / 26% ROI)
- Jarren Duran has hit the Singles Under in 15 of his last 22 games (+8.65 Units / 38% ROI)
- Rob Refsnyder has hit the Home Runs Over in 1 of his last 5 away games (+8.00 Units / 160% ROI)
- Garrett Cooper has hit the Runs Under in his last 8 games (+8.00 Units / 48% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Twins Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Carlos Santana has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 9 games (+14.60 Units / 162% ROI)
- Willi Castro has hit the Total Bases Over in 14 of his last 16 games (+13.40 Units / 60% ROI)
- Willi Castro has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 16 games (+13.05 Units / 45% ROI)
- Willi Castro has hit the Singles Over in 12 of his last 16 games (+9.50 Units / 59% ROI)
- Carlos Santana has hit the Runs Under in 21 of his last 28 games (+9.05 Units / 18% ROI)
Red Sox Best Bets Today:
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 15 of their last 19 games (+10.60 Units / 50% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 37 of their last 66 away games (+7.03 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 34 of their last 61 away games (+5.05 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 5 of their last 7 away games (+2.95 Units / 38% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 3 of their last 6 away games (+1.53 Units / 24% ROI)
Twins Best Bets Today:
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the Run Line in 31 of their last 50 games (+14.40 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 47 of their last 78 games (+13.95 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Team Total Over in 48 of their last 77 games (+13.50 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 25 of their last 40 games at home (+7.65 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Moneyline in 28 of their last 45 games at home (+2.85 Units / 4% ROI)
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Red Sox are 18-16 against the Run Line (-1.6 Units / -3.26% ROI).
- 18-16 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.5 Units / 3.81% ROI
- 13-19 when betting on the total runs Over for -7.6 Units / -20.49% ROI
- 19-13 when betting on the total runs Under for +4.65 Units / 12.32% ROI
Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Twins are 17-15 against the Run Line (+1 Units / 2.4% ROI).
- 19-13 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.05 Units / 7.02% ROI
- 15-14 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.35 Units / -1.02% ROI
- 14-15 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.4 Units / -7.07% ROI
Twins vs Red Sox Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Max Kepler (MIN) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Rafael Devers (BOS) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Trevor Larnach (MIN) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| Tyler O'Neill (BOS) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| Ryan Jeffers (MIN) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -700 |
Twins vs Red Sox Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Ryan Jeffers (MIN) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Carlos Correa (MIN) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Jarren Duran (BOS) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Rafael Devers (BOS) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Willi Castro (MIN) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
Twins vs Red Sox RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Max Kepler (MIN) | 0.5 +115 | 0.5 -150 |
| Carlos Correa (MIN) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
| Ryan Jeffers (MIN) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Rafael Devers (BOS) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Carlos Santana (MIN) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
Twins vs Red Sox Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Cooper Criswell has struck out just 12% (12/98) of left-handed batters he faced since last season — tied for lowest among in MLB; League Avg: 25% — second Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 18% (67/376) against Cooper Criswell since last season — 4th lowest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 28% — second Percentile.
Cooper Criswell has a strikeout rate of just 18% (38 SO in 215 PAs) since last season — 7th lowest among in MLB; League Avg: 25% — seventh Percentile.
Cooper Criswell has a strikeout rate of just 18% (38 SO in 215 PAs) since last season — 12th lowest among among 197 qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 25% — sixth Percentile.
Twins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Joe Ryan has a strikeout rate of 35% (19 SO in 54 PAs) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — tied for best among in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.
Joe Ryan has a strike rate of 71% (195/274) vs left-handed batters this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 64% — 100th Percentile.
Joe Ryan has struck out 33% (22/67) of right-handed batters he faced this season — 5th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 95th Percentile.
Joe Ryan has allowed an OBP of just .209 (67 PA’s) against right-handed batters this season — 3rd best among in MLB; League Avg: .292 — 95th Percentile.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Twins
The Red Sox are just 3-153 (.019) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .049.
The Red Sox are just 37-67 (.356) after a loss as underdogs since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .410.
The Red Sox are just 18-24 (.429) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Red Sox are just 14-21 (.400) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Twins Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Twins are 57-13 (.814) when they’ve had 10 or more hits since the 2023 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .735.
The Twins are 21-60 (.259) when trailing entering the 7th inning since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .144.
The Twins are 77-14 (.846) when scoring 5 or more runs since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .786.
The Twins are 15-70 (.176) when trailing entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .102.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
The Red Sox are batting .289 with two outs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .227.
Red Sox hitters have 96 strikeouts in 326 PA’s (29%) against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Red Sox are batting .179 on pitches out of the zone since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .152.
Red Sox hitters are slugging .258 on pitches out of the zone since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .212.
Twins Hitting Stats & Trends
Twins hitters have an OPS of 1.028 (173 PA’s) in innings 7-9 over the last 14 days — best in MLB; League Avg: .649.
Twins hitters have an OPS of .875 (514 PA’s) over the last 14 days — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .682.
Twins hitters are slugging .685 on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .587.
Twins hitters have 75 extra-base hits out of 178 total hits (42%) against RHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 34%.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
Red Sox pitchers have walked 120 of 1,741 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Red Sox pitchers have walked 84 of 1,254 batters (7%) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Red Sox pitchers have walked 15 of 306 batters (5%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Red Sox pitchers have an ERA of 1.99 (158.1 IP) on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 3.98.
Twins Pitching Stats & Trends
Twins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 27% this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Twins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 30% versus the bottom of the order this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Twins pitchers have walked 525 of 7,216 batters (7%) since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Twins pitchers have walked 82 of 1,188 batters (7%) this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Twins vs. Red Sox Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Zack Weiss (Minnesota Twins): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Jhoan Duran (Minnesota Twins): Oblique, 15-Day IL
- Anthony DeSclafani (Minnesota Twins): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Matt Canterino (Minnesota Twins): Shoulder, 7-Day IL
- Trevor Larnach (Minnesota Twins): Toe, 7-Day IL
- Royce Lewis (Minnesota Twins): Quadriceps, 10-Day IL
- Max Kepler (Minnesota Twins): Leg, Day-To-Day
- Jovani Moran (Minnesota Twins): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Josh Staumont (Minnesota Twins): Calf, 15-Day IL
- Caleb Thielbar (Minnesota Twins): Hamstring, 15-Day IL
- Justin Topa (Minnesota Twins): Kneecap, 15-Day IL
- Jose De Leon (Minnesota Twins): Elbow, Out
- Josh Winder (Minnesota Twins): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Wyatt Mills (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Vaughn Grissom (Boston Red Sox): Hamstring, 10-Day IL
- Michael Fulmer (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Zack Kelly (Boston Red Sox): Oblique, Day-To-Day
- Bryan Mata (Boston Red Sox): Hamstring, 15-Day IL
- Chris Murphy (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Kenley Jansen (Boston Red Sox): Back, Day-To-Day
- Brandon Walter (Boston Red Sox): Shoulder, 7-Day IL
- Lucas Giolito (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Rob Refsnyder (Boston Red Sox): Toe, 10-Day IL
- Yu Chang (Boston Red Sox): Oblique, Out
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