- Red Sox / Yankees TV Channel: YES | MLBN
The Boston Red Sox (+165) visit George M. Steinbrenner Field to take on the New York Yankees (-200) on Wednesday, March 13, 2024. First pitch is for this Spring Training game is scheduled for 1:05pm EDT in Tampa, FL.
This season, the Red Sox are 7-7 against the spread (ATS), while the Yankees are 5-9 ATS.
Red Sox vs. Yankees Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Moneyline | |
| Red Sox | +165 |
| Yankees | -200 |
Red Sox vs Yankees Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Yankees will win Wednesday‘s matchup with 57.9% confidence, based on game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Red Sox Player Prop Bets Today:
- Ceddanne Rafaela has hit the Hits Under in his last 2 games (+3.80 Units / 190% ROI)
- David Hamilton has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 3 away games (+3.10 Units / 74% ROI)
- Rafael Devers has hit the RBIs Over in 2 of his last 3 games (+2.95 Units / 98% ROI)
- Masataka Yoshida has hit the RBIs Over in 1 of his last 2 games (+0.90 Units / 45% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Yankees players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Yankees Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Ben Rortvedt has hit the Singles Under in his last 3 games at home (+3.00 Units / 41% ROI)
- Estevan Florial has hit the Singles Under in his last 2 games at home (+2.00 Units / 35% ROI)
- Aaron Judge has hit the Hits Under in 2 of his last 3 games (+1.80 Units / 38% ROI)
- Austin Wells has hit the RBIs Over in 2 of his last 4 games (+1.35 Units / 34% ROI)
- Isiah Kiner-Falefa has hit the Runs Over in 1 of his last 2 games at home (+1.10 Units / 55% ROI)
Red Sox Best Bets Today:
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 15 of their last 19 games (+10.60 Units / 50% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 37 of their last 66 away games (+7.03 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 34 of their last 61 away games (+5.05 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 5 of their last 7 away games (+2.95 Units / 38% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 3 of their last 6 away games (+1.53 Units / 24% ROI)
Yankees Best Bets Today:
- The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 23 of their last 37 games at home (+9.70 Units / 24% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the Team Total Under in 32 of their last 53 games at home (+9.60 Units / 16% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the Moneyline in 20 of their last 32 games (+7.10 Units / 18% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 37 of their last 81 games at home (+3.80 Units / 3% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 23 of their last 41 games at home (+3.68 Units / 8% ROI)
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this Spring Training, the Red Sox are 9-6 against the Run Line (+3.1 Units / 17.43% ROI).
- 7-7 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.48 Units / -7.21% ROI
- 4-11 when betting on the total runs Over for -8.08 Units / -49.27% ROI
- 11-4 when betting on the total runs Under for +6.52 Units / 39.28% ROI
Yankees Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this Spring Training, the Yankees are 5-9 against the Run Line (-5.05 Units / -30.64% ROI).
- 5-8 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.08 Units / -25.07% ROI
- 7-5 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.45 Units / 9.39% ROI
- 5-7 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.65 Units / -17.24% ROI
Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Nick Pivetta allowed an OBP of just .178 (359 PA’s) with two-strikes in the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .246 — 99th Percentile.
Nick Pivetta struck out 32% (77/241) of left-handed batters he faced in the 2023 season — 5th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 22% — 95th Percentile.
Right-handed batters batted just .197 (61-for-310) against Nick Pivetta in the 2023 season — 7th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .251 — 95th Percentile.
Nick Pivetta allowed an OPS of just .378 (360 PA’s) with two-strikes in the 2023 season — 4th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .526 — 97th Percentile.
Yankees Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Carlos Rodon has allowed an average Exit Velocity of 85.7 MPH on pitches out of the zone since last season (101 balls in play) — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 129 total IP; League Avg: 80.6
Carlos Rodon’s lowest spin rate on sliders since last season is 84.0 RPM — 10th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 129 total IP; League Avg: 1323.3
Carlos Rodon’s lowest spin rate on fastballs since last season is 223.0 RPM — 15th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 129 total IP; League Avg: 1212.5
Carlos Rodon’s highest spin rate on sliders since last season is 3503.0 RPM — 3rd most in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 129 total IP; League Avg: 2862.8
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Yankees
The Red Sox were just 1-72 (.014) when trailing entering the 9th inning in the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .052.
The Red Sox are just 3-138 (.021) when trailing entering the 9th inning since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .049.
The Red Sox were 59-4 (.937) when leading entering the 7th inning in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .859.
The Red Sox are just 12-20 (.375) when tied entering the 8th inning since last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Yankees Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Yankees are 108-28 (.794) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .697.
The Yankees are 19-17 (.528) after a win as underdogs since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .417.
The Yankees are just 14-28 (.333) after a loss as underdogs since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .407.
The Yankees were just 9-37 (.196) when allowing 10 or more hits in the 2023 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .272.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
Red Sox hitters slugged .266 on pitches out of the zone in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .211.
The Red Sox batted .182 on pitches out of the zone in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .151.
The Red Sox batted .300 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game in the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .267.
The Red Sox batted .185 with two-strikes in the 2023 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .172.
Yankees Hitting Stats & Trends
Yankees hitters had a groundball batting average of just .212 in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .248.
The Yankees batted just .227 in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .248.
The Yankees batted just .220 against starting pitchers in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .253.
The Yankees batted just .234 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .267.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents had a groundball batting average of .265 against Red Sox pitchers with the shift in the 2023 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: .240.
Red Sox pitchers threw over to first base 120 times in the 2023 season — 2nd fewest in MLB.
Opponents had a swing rate of 49% against the Red Sox pitchers in the 2023 season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
The Red Sox have won 43% of home games in which their opponents scored first since the 2021 season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Yankees Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents had a groundball batting average of just .215 against Yankees pitchers with runners on base in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .259.
In games when their opponents scored three or more runs in an inning, the Yankees won just just 14% of the time in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Opponents had a groundball batting average of just .200 against Yankees pitchers with the shift in the 2023 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .240.
Yankees pitchers have won 32% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings since last season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Yankees vs. Red Sox Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Lou Trivino (New York Yankees): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Scott Effross (New York Yankees): Back, 60-Day IL
- Jasson Dominguez (New York Yankees): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Wandy Peralta (New York Yankees): Personal, Day-To-Day
- Ryan Weber (New York Yankees): Forearm, Out
- Jose Trevino (New York Yankees): Calf, Out
- David Hamilton (Boston Red Sox): Thumb, Out
- Wyatt Mills (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, Out
- Vaughn Grissom (Boston Red Sox): Hamstring, Out
- Michael Fulmer (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, Out
- Dinelson Lamet (Boston Red Sox): Personal, Day-To-Day
- Connor Wong (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, Day-To-Day
- Jarren Duran (Boston Red Sox): Toe, Out
- Kenley Jansen (Boston Red Sox): Lat, Out
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