- The Cardinals are -130 favorites vs the Reds
- Reds vs Cardinals Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Reds / Cardinals TV Channel: BSOH | BSMW | MLBN
The Cincinnati Reds (+105) visit Busch Stadium to take on the St. Louis Cardinals (-130) on Friday, June 28, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 8:15pm EDT in St. Louis, MO.
This season, the Reds are 38-43 against the spread (ATS), while the Cardinals are 41-39 ATS.
Reds vs Cardinals Starting Pitchers Today:
- Reds starting pitcher: Frankie Montas 3-5, 4.50 ERA
- Cardinals starting pitcher: Andre Pallante 3-3, 5.19 ERA
Reds vs. Cardinals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Reds | +1.5 -185 | O 8.5 -105 | +105 |
| Cardinals | -1.5 +150 | U 8.5 -115 | -130 |
Reds vs Cardinals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Cardinals will win Friday‘s MLB game with 52.5% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Reds Player Prop Bets Today:
- Elly De La Cruz has hit the Hits Under in 28 of his last 47 games (+18.60 Units / 35% ROI)
- Santiago Espinal has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 7 away games (+17.00 Units / 243% ROI)
- Jeimer Candelario has hit the Total Bases Over in 25 of his last 41 games (+11.60 Units / 23% ROI)
- Will Benson has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 12 of his last 14 games (+11.25 Units / 74% ROI)
- Jake Fraley has hit the Singles Over in 16 of his last 22 games (+10.45 Units / 45% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cardinals players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Cardinals Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Brendan Donovan has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 13 games (+19.50 Units / 150% ROI)
- Brendan Donovan has hit the Hits Over in 18 of his last 20 games (+15.35 Units / 37% ROI)
- Nolan Gorman has hit the Total Bases Under in 14 of his last 16 games (+12.40 Units / 64% ROI)
- Willson Contreras has hit the Singles Under in 14 of his last 17 games (+10.30 Units / 46% ROI)
- Nolan Gorman has hit the Runs Under in 14 of his last 17 games (+8.95 Units / 31% ROI)
Reds Best Bets Today:
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 39 of their last 65 games (+13.55 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Under in 40 of their last 66 games (+10.40 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 37 of their last 63 games (+10.00 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 23 of their last 36 away games (+8.80 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 19 of their last 31 games (+6.20 Units / 17% ROI)
Cardinals Best Bets Today:
- The St. Louis Cardinals have covered the Run Line in 15 of their last 22 games at home (+9.40 Units / 33% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 13 of their last 17 games (+8.95 Units / 44% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Team Total Over in 25 of their last 41 games (+7.65 Units / 16% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 11 of their last 15 games at home (+7.50 Units / 44% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 10 of their last 17 games (+6.55 Units / 30% ROI)
Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Reds are 45-36 against the Run Line (+6.15 Units / 5.72% ROI).
- 38-43 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.95 Units / -6.28% ROI
- 35-43 when betting on the total runs Over for -12.8 Units / -14.33% ROI
- 43-35 when betting on the total runs Under for +4.2 Units / 4.71% ROI
Cardinals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Cardinals are 41-39 against the Run Line (-1.15 Units / -1.08% ROI).
- 41-39 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.95 Units / -5.09% ROI
- 34-41 when betting on the total runs Over for -11.15 Units / -12.82% ROI
- 41-34 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.7 Units / 4.25% ROI
Cardinals vs Reds Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nolan Gorman (STL) | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -500 |
| Willson Contreras (STL) | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -500 |
| Matt Carpenter (STL) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| Paul Goldschmidt (STL) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| Alec Burleson (STL) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
Cardinals vs Reds Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Brendan Donovan (STL) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Spencer Steer (CIN) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Elly De La Cruz (CIN) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Jonathan India (CIN) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Paul Goldschmidt (STL) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
Cardinals vs Reds RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Spencer Steer (CIN) | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -165 |
| Paul Goldschmidt (STL) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Nick Martini (CIN) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Willson Contreras (STL) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Alec Burleson (STL) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
Cardinals vs Reds Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Frankie Montas (CIN) | 3.5 -160 | 3.5 +125 |
| Andre Pallante (STL) | 3.5 -135 | 3.5 +105 |
Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a first pitch chase rate of 23% (107/455) against Frankie Montas since the 2022 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 160 total IP; League Avg: 16% — 100th Percentile.
Frankie Montas has allowed a slugging percentage of .690 (20 Total Bases / 29 ABs) on low fastballs this season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 31 total IP; League Avg: .392 — third Percentile.
Opponents have a chase percentage of just 30% (58/194) against Frankie Montas with two-strikes this season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 31 total IP; League Avg: 39% — first Percentile.
Frankie Montas has thrown inside pitches 44% of the time (102/232) with runners in scoring position this season — 5th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 31 total IP; League Avg: 32% — 96th Percentile.
Cardinals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Andre Pallante has allowed an OBP of .448 (203 PA’s) against right-handed batters since last season — highest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: .304 — first Percentile.
Right-handed batters are hitting .360 (62-for-172) against Andre Pallante since last season — highest among NL Relievers; League Avg: .229 — first Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 71% (235/330) against Andre Pallante since last season — highest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 44% — 100th Percentile.
Left-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 76% (141/186) against Andre Pallante since last season — highest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 44% — 100th Percentile.
Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Cardinals
The Reds are just 2-10 (.167) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Reds are just 1-7 (.125) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Reds are just 26-30 (.464) after a loss as favorites since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .586.
The Reds are just 54-56 (.491) when they’ve scored in the first inning since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .637.
Cardinals Keys to the Game vs. the Reds
The Cardinals are just 3-20 (.130) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .362.
The Cardinals are just 6-109 (.052) when trailing entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .103.
The Cardinals are just 9-98 (.084) when trailing entering the 7th inning since the 2023 season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .142.
The Cardinals are just 20-32 (.385) after a win as favorites since the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .577.
Reds Hitting Stats & Trends
Reds hitters are slugging just .155 on pitches out of the zone this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .211.
The Reds are batting just .115 on pitches out of the zone this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .153.
The Reds are batting just .178 on breaking pitches this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .219.
Reds hitters have pulled 52% of balls they’ve put into play against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Cardinals Hitting Stats & Trends
The Cardinals are batting just .234 against LHP since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .252.
Cardinals hitters have an OBP of just .280 (900 PA’s) against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .315.
Cardinals hitters have an OPS of just .616 (900 PA’s) against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .709.
The Cardinals are batting just .215 against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .247.
Reds Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 39% against Reds pitchers this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 39% against Reds pitchers since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 40% against Reds pitchers since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Reds pitchers have walked 203 of 2,159 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Cardinals Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Cardinals pitchers since last season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Cardinals pitchers since the 2022 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Cardinals pitchers since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Cardinals pitchers since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Cardinals vs. Reds Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Dylan Carlson (St. Louis Cardinals): Shoulder, 10-Day IL
- Keynan Middleton (St. Louis Cardinals): Forearm, 15-Day IL
- Lars Nootbaar (St. Louis Cardinals): Ribs, 10-Day IL
- Drew Rom (St. Louis Cardinals): Biceps, 15-Day IL
- Sonny Gray (St. Louis Cardinals): Hamstring, 15-Day IL
- Riley O’Brien (St. Louis Cardinals): Forearm, 15-Day IL
- Tommy Edman (St. Louis Cardinals): Wrist, 10-Day IL
- Packy Naughton (St. Louis Cardinals): Elbow, Out
- Austin Wynns (Cincinnati Reds): Shoulder, Day-To-Day
- Sam Moll (Cincinnati Reds): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Noelvi Marte (Cincinnati Reds): Suspension, Suspension
- Matt McLain (Cincinnati Reds): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Joey Votto (Cincinnati Reds): Ankle, Out
- Nick Lodolo (Cincinnati Reds): Calf, 15-Day IL
- TJ Friedl (Cincinnati Reds): Wrist, 10-Day IL
- Reiver Sanmartin (Cincinnati Reds): Elbow, Out
- Alex Young (Cincinnati Reds): Back, 15-Day IL
- Ian Gibaut (Cincinnati Reds): Forearm, 15-Day IL
- Brandon Williamson (Cincinnati Reds): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Connor Overton (Cincinnati Reds): Elbow, Out
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