- The Guardians are -165 favorites vs the Reds
- Reds vs Guardians Over / Under today: 8 Runs
- Reds / Guardians TV Channel: BSGL | BSOH
The Cincinnati Reds (+140) visit Progressive Field to take on the Cleveland Guardians (-165) on Tuesday, September 24, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Cleveland, OH.
This season, the Reds are 76-81 against the spread (ATS), while the Guardians are 80-77 ATS.
Reds vs Guardians Starting Pitchers Today:
- Reds starting pitcher: Jakob Junis 4-0, 2.63 ERA
- Guardians starting pitcher: Tanner Bibee 11-8, 3.59 ERA
Reds vs. Guardians Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Reds | +1.5 -155 | O 7.5 +100 | +140 |
| Guardians | -1.5 +125 | U 7.5 -120 | -165 |
Reds vs Guardians Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Guardians will win Tuesday‘s MLB game with 57.0% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Reds Player Prop Bets Today:
- TJ Friedl has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 9 away games (+21.75 Units / 242% ROI)
- Jonathan India has hit the Hits Under in 15 of his last 25 away games (+13.45 Units / 54% ROI)
- Santiago Espinal has hit the Total Bases Under in 14 of his last 17 games (+13.15 Units / 52% ROI)
- Spencer Steer has hit the Singles Under in 13 of his last 14 games (+11.90 Units / 64% ROI)
- Santiago Espinal has hit the Runs Under in 13 of his last 14 away games (+10.25 Units / 32% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Guardians Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Lane Thomas has hit the Home Runs Over in 6 of his last 18 games (+21.40 Units / 119% ROI)
- Josh Naylor has hit the Hits Under in 17 of his last 33 games (+10.75 Units / 30% ROI)
- Jose Ramirez has hit the RBIs Under in 20 of his last 25 games (+10.70 Units / 24% ROI)
- Josh Naylor has hit the Singles Under in 30 of his last 46 games (+10.45 Units / 18% ROI)
- Lane Thomas has hit the Total Bases Under in 18 of his last 25 games at home (+10.40 Units / 29% ROI)
Reds Best Bets Today:
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 80 of their last 139 games (+14.35 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Under in 81 of their last 142 games (+12.00 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Moneyline in 27 of their last 51 away games (+8.45 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Over in 35 of their last 66 games (+5.30 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 6 of their last 8 games (+3.75 Units / 38% ROI)
Guardians Best Bets Today:
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 39 of their last 65 games (+14.70 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 90 of their last 157 games (+11.45 Units / 6% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 36 of their last 72 games at home (+10.75 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 9 of their last 10 games (+8.35 Units / 65% ROI)
Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Reds are 88-69 against the Run Line (+10.5 Units / 5.03% ROI).
- 76-81 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.95 Units / -2.68% ROI
- 73-76 when betting on the total runs Over for -11.45 Units / -6.6% ROI
- 76-73 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.45 Units / -2.59% ROI
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Guardians are 80-77 against the Run Line (+5.35 Units / 2.7% ROI).
- 90-67 when betting on the Moneyline for +11.45 Units / 5.64% ROI
- 69-78 when betting on the total runs Over for -17.05 Units / -9.84% ROI
- 78-69 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.05 Units / 1.19% ROI
Guardians vs Reds Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jhonkensy Noel (CLE) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -500 |
| Kyle Manzardo (CLE) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Elly De La Cruz (CIN) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Josh Naylor (CLE) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
Guardians vs Reds Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Josh Naylor (CLE) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Tyler Stephenson (CIN) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Ty France (CIN) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +175 |
| Elly De La Cruz (CIN) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
Guardians vs Reds RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
| Josh Naylor (CLE) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Tyler Stephenson (CIN) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Jhonkensy Noel (CLE) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Kyle Manzardo (CLE) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
Guardians vs Reds Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Tanner Bibee (CLE) | 5.5 -135 | 5.5 +105 |
| Jakob Junis (CIN) | 3.5 -120 | 3.5 -110 |
Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
8 of Jakob Junis’ 25 breaking pitch strikeouts (32%) have been backdoor this season — 4th highest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 12% — 96th Percentile.
30 of Jakob Junis’ breaking pitch strikeouts are backdoor since the 2022 season — most among NL Relievers; League Avg: nan — 100th Percentile.
19 of Jakob Junis’ breaking pitch strikeouts are backdoor since last season — tied for most among NL Relievers; League Avg: nan — 100th Percentile.
Jakob Junis has walked 15 of 385 right-handed batters (4%) since last season — tied for 4th best among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 8% — 96th Percentile.
Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
The average home run distance against Tanner Bibee in the 2023 season was 379.5 feet — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 399.3
Tanner Bibee has a strike rate of 76% (357/473) when he’s behind in the count this season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 71% — 96th Percentile.
Tanner Bibee has thrown elevated pitches 43% of the time (203/473) when behind in the count this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 28% — 98th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 34% (157/455) against Tanner Bibee this season — 4th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — seventh Percentile.
Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians
The Reds are just 13-26 (.333) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Reds are just 34-37 (.479) after a loss as favorites since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .589.
The Reds are just 5-15 (.250) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Reds are just 7-17 (.292) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Reds
The Guardians are 24-30 (.444) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .290.
The Guardians are 74-2 (.974) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .900.
The Guardians are 40-172 (.189) when trailing entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .134.
The Guardians are 68-2 (.971) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .856.
Reds Hitting Stats & Trends
Reds hitters are slugging just .150 on pitches out of the zone this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .205.
The Reds are batting just .127 on pitches out of the zone since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .151.
Reds hitters are slugging just .170 on pitches out of the zone since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .208.
The Reds are batting just .225 against LHP this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .245.
Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends
The Guardians have barrels in 4% of PA’s since last season (453/11,884) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 5%.
Guardians hitters have put just 35% of balls in play to the left side of the field since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 38%.
Guardians hitters have put just 34% of balls in play to the left side of the field since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 38%.
Guardians hitters had a Hard-Hit Rate of just 33% in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 40%.
Reds Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 39% against Reds pitchers since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .294 against Reds pitchers with runners on base since the 2022 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .256.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 31% against Reds pitchers over the past seven days (6 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 35% against Reds pitchers over the last 14 days — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .203 against Guardians pitchers with runners on base this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .262.
The Guardians have allowed 0.88 runs per game (138/157) in late innings this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 1.29.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .222 against Guardians pitchers this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .249.
Guardians pitchers have walked 7 of 186 batters (4%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this month (21 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Guardians vs. Reds Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Cleveland Guardians – No Injuries Reported
- Cincinnati Reds – No Injuries Reported
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