- The Phillies are -150 favorites vs the Reds
- Reds / Phillies TV Channel: NSP+ | BSOH
The Cincinnati Reds (+125) visit Citizens Bank Park to take on the Philadelphia Phillies (-150) on Monday, April 1, 2024. First pitch is for this MLB matchup is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Philadelphia, PA.
This season, the Reds are 2-1 against the spread (ATS), while the Phillies are 1-2 ATS.
Reds vs. Phillies Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Reds | +1.5 -160 | O 8.5 -120 | +125 |
| Phillies | -1.5 +135 | U 8.5 +100 | -150 |
Reds vs Phillies Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Monday‘s game with 55.7% confidence, based on game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Reds Player Prop Bets Today:
- Noelvi Marte has hit the Hits Over in 11 of his last 12 games (+11.00 Units / 50% ROI)
- Hunter Renfroe has hit the Hits Under in 15 of his last 25 away games (+10.75 Units / 43% ROI)
- Noelvi Marte has hit the Singles Over in 11 of his last 12 games (+9.90 Units / 72% ROI)
- Hunter Renfroe has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 14 of his last 18 away games (+9.00 Units / 34% ROI)
- Graham Ashcraft has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 10 of his last 12 games (+8.35 Units / 57% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Phillies Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Ranger Suarez has hit the Strikeouts Over in 16 of his last 22 games (+9.95 Units / 37% ROI)
- Brandon Marsh has hit the Total Bases Over in 18 of his last 25 games at home (+9.80 Units / 29% ROI)
- Brandon Marsh has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 11 of his last 13 games at home (+9.50 Units / 54% ROI)
- Brandon Marsh has hit the Hits Over in his last 9 games at home (+9.20 Units / 85% ROI)
- Bryce Harper has hit the Hits Under in 6 of his last 7 games (+8.30 Units / 119% ROI)
Reds Best Bets Today:
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Moneyline in 41 of their last 67 away games (+23.65 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 96 of their last 161 games (+20.80 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 45 of their last 72 games (+16.80 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Over in 41 of their last 65 away games (+14.05 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 12 of their last 18 away games (+4.93 Units / 22% ROI)
Phillies Best Bets Today:
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 73 of their last 118 games (+13.30 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the Run Line in 39 of their last 70 games (+11.85 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 26 of their last 42 games at home (+8.78 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 9 of their last 13 games (+7.18 Units / 41% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 10 of their last 14 games (+6.21 Units / 41% ROI)
Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Reds are 1-2 against the Run Line (-0.65 Units / -21.67% ROI).
- 2-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.2 Units / 4.04% ROI
- 3-0 when betting on the total runs Over for +3 Units / 92.31% ROI
- 0-3 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.35 Units / -100% ROI
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Phillies are 1-2 against the Run Line (-2.05 Units / -46.07% ROI).
- 1-2 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.75 Units / -25% ROI
- 3-0 when betting on the total runs Over for +3 Units / 92.31% ROI
- 0-3 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.35 Units / -100% ROI
Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents had a groundball rate of just 20% (21/103) against Andrew Abbott’s curve and slider in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 43% — 0 Percentile.
Opponents had a groundball rate of just 30% (87/294) against Andrew Abbott in the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 43% — first Percentile.
Opponents had a groundball rate of just 27% (40/151) against Andrew Abbott on non-fastballs in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 46% — 0 Percentile.
Opponents had a groundball rate of just 22% (10/46) against Andrew Abbott on low breaking pitches in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 49% — 0 Percentile.
Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents had a groundball rate of 70% (55/78) against Cristopher Sanchez’s changeup in the 2023 season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 51% — 97th Percentile.
Opponents had a groundball rate of 58% (162/281) against Cristopher Sanchez in the 2023 season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 43% — 98th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 57% (229/402) against Cristopher Sanchez since last season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 130 total IP; League Avg: 43% — 98th Percentile.
Cristopher Sanchez has located his fastballs down 52% of the time (561/1,079) since last season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 130 total IP; League Avg: 28% — 98th Percentile.
Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Reds are just 18-24 (.429) after a loss as favorites since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .586.
The Reds are just 38-18 (.679) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .797.
The Reds are 25-10 (.714) after a win as favorites since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .593.
The Reds are just 40-46 (.465) when they’ve scored in the first inning since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .637.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Reds
The Phillies are 105-71 (.597) after a win since the 2022 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .515.
The Phillies are 19-120 (.137) when trailing entering the 8th inning since the 2022 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .092.
The Phillies are 10-127 (.073) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2022 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .048.
The Phillies are 20-21 (.488) after a win as underdogs since the 2022 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .415.
Reds Hitting Stats & Trends
The Reds are batting just .142 on pitches out of the zone since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .154.
Reds hitters had a swing rate of just 45% in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Reds hitters had a swing rate of just 44% in righty-righty matchups in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
The Reds are batting just .322 on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .342.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
Phillies hitters are slugging .424 against RHP since last season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .403.
Phillies hitters had a swing rate of 53% in righty-righty matchups in the 2023 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Phillies hitters had an OPS of .790 (3,042 PA’s) at home in the 2023 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .746.
Phillies hitters are slugging .443 against LHP since last season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .409.
Reds Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 40% against Reds pitchers since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Reds pitchers have walked 1,231 of 12,606 batters (10%) since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .294 against Reds pitchers with runners on base since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .253.
Opponents had a groundball rate of just 39% against Reds pitchers in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Phillies pitchers since last season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
The Phillies won 54% of home games in which their opponents scored first in the 2023 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Phillies pitchers have a strikeout rate of 44% with two-strikes since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Phillies pitchers had a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes in the 2023 season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Phillies vs. Reds Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Taijuan Walker (Philadelphia Phillies): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Orion Kerkering (Philadelphia Phillies): Forearm, 15-Day IL
- Michael Rucker (Philadelphia Phillies): Hand, 15-Day IL
- Michael Lorenzen (Philadelphia Phillies): Neck, 15-Day IL
- Erich Uelmen (Philadelphia Phillies): Forearm, Out
- Weston Wilson (Philadelphia Phillies): Hand, Day-To-Day
- Dylan Covey (Philadelphia Phillies): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Rafael Marchan (Philadelphia Phillies): Back, 10-Day IL
- Austin Wynns (Cincinnati Reds): Shoulder, Day-To-Day
- Sam Moll (Cincinnati Reds): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Noelvi Marte (Cincinnati Reds): Suspension, Suspension
- Matt McLain (Cincinnati Reds): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Joey Votto (Cincinnati Reds): Ankle, Out
- Nick Lodolo (Cincinnati Reds): Calf, 15-Day IL
- TJ Friedl (Cincinnati Reds): Wrist, 10-Day IL
- Reiver Sanmartin (Cincinnati Reds): Elbow, Out
- Alex Young (Cincinnati Reds): Back, 15-Day IL
- Ian Gibaut (Cincinnati Reds): Forearm, 15-Day IL
- Brandon Williamson (Cincinnati Reds): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Connor Overton (Cincinnati Reds): Elbow, Out
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