- The Reds are -125 favorites vs the Pirates
- Reds vs Pirates Over / Under today: 8 Runs
- Reds / Pirates TV Channel: BSOH | SNPT
The Cincinnati Reds (-125) visit PNC Park to take on the Pittsburgh Pirates (+105) on Tuesday, June 18, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Pittsburgh, PA.
This season, the Reds are 34-38 against the spread (ATS), while the Pirates are 39-33 ATS.
Reds vs Pirates Starting Pitchers Today:
- Reds starting pitcher: Nick Lodolo 7-2, 2.99 ERA
- Pirates starting pitcher: Bailey Falter 3-4, 3.88 ERA
Reds vs. Pirates Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Reds | -1.5 +135 | O 8 +100 | -125 |
| Pirates | +1.5 -160 | U 8 -120 | +105 |
Reds vs Pirates Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Reds will win Tuesday‘s MLB game with 55.9% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Reds Player Prop Bets Today:
- TJ Friedl has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 14 games (+18.70 Units / 134% ROI)
- Elly De La Cruz has hit the Hits Under in 24 of his last 39 games (+16.55 Units / 36% ROI)
- Jeimer Candelario has hit the Total Bases Over in 24 of his last 35 games (+15.40 Units / 35% ROI)
- Will Benson has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 14 of his last 19 away games (+8.70 Units / 37% ROI)
- Elly De La Cruz has hit the Singles Under in 33 of his last 50 games (+8.70 Units / 12% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Nick Gonzales has hit the Hits Over in 24 of his last 30 games (+14.85 Units / 27% ROI)
- Nick Gonzales has hit the Total Bases Over in 22 of his last 30 games (+14.55 Units / 34% ROI)
- Oneil Cruz has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 13 games at home (+11.40 Units / 88% ROI)
- Oneil Cruz has hit the Runs Over in 11 of his last 15 games at home (+10.10 Units / 67% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 11 of his last 13 games at home (+8.80 Units / 55% ROI)
Reds Best Bets Today:
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 34 of their last 56 games (+13.00 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Under in 35 of their last 57 games (+10.05 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 22 of their last 33 away games (+9.95 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 32 of their last 54 games (+8.50 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Moneyline in 14 of their last 22 games (+7.35 Units / 29% ROI)
Pirates Best Bets Today:
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 39 of their last 61 games (+15.05 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 16 of their last 28 games (+9.75 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 19 of their last 28 games (+9.35 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 13 of their last 17 games at home (+9.15 Units / 45% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 21 of their last 33 games (+8.85 Units / 21% ROI)
Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Reds are 40-32 against the Run Line (+4.65 Units / 4.85% ROI).
- 34-38 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.9 Units / -4.67% ROI
- 31-38 when betting on the total runs Over for -11.3 Units / -14.22% ROI
- 38-31 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.65 Units / 4.61% ROI
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Pirates are 39-33 against the Run Line (+3.76 Units / 4% ROI).
- 35-37 when betting on the Moneyline for -4 Units / -4.72% ROI
- 34-34 when betting on the total runs Over for -3 Units / -3.77% ROI
- 34-34 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.72 Units / -3.45% ROI
Pirates vs Reds Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Spencer Steer (CIN) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Jeimer Candelario (CIN) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Tyler Stephenson (CIN) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| Andrew McCutchen (PIT) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| Stuart Fairchild (CIN) | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -900 |
Pirates vs Reds Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryan Reynolds (PIT) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Jeimer Candelario (CIN) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Ke'Bryan Hayes (PIT) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Elly De La Cruz (CIN) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Jonathan India (CIN) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
Pirates vs Reds RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Spencer Steer (CIN) | 0.5 +120 | 0.5 -160 |
| Jeimer Candelario (CIN) | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -160 |
| Tyler Stephenson (CIN) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
| Jonathan India (CIN) | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
| Edward Olivares (PIT) | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
Pirates vs Reds Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nick Lodolo (CIN) | 6.5 +100 | 6.5 -135 |
| Bailey Falter (PIT) | 4.5 +115 | 4.5 -150 |
Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Nick Lodolo has spotted his fastball inside for a strike just 55% (397/729) of the time since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 157 total IP; League Avg: 65% — 0 Percentile.
Nick Lodolo has allowed an OBP of .378 (323 PA’s) when going through the lineup the second time in a game since the 2022 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 157 total IP; League Avg: .305 — 0 Percentile.
Opponents have a swing rate of just 32% (235/729) against Nick Lodolo on inside fastballs since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 157 total IP; League Avg: 49% — 0 Percentile.
Nick Lodolo has thrown inside pitches 42% of the time (128/301) with two-strikes this season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 27 total IP; League Avg: 30% — 97th Percentile.
Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Bailey Falter has thrown inside pitches 48% of the time (383/792) against right-handed batters this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 29% — 100th Percentile.
Bailey Falter has thrown inside pitches 48% of the time (383/792) against right-handed batters this season — highest among among NL Starters; League Avg: 29% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 20% (101/501) against Bailey Falter this season — 10th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — 12th Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 15% (12/82) against Bailey Falter on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — second Percentile.
Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Reds are just 1-6 (.143) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Reds are just 24-28 (.462) after a loss as favorites since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .589.
The Reds are just 63-44 (.589) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .698.
The Reds are just 52-55 (.486) when they’ve scored in the first inning since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .636.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Reds
The Pirates are just 28-47 (.373) after a road win since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .486.
The Pirates are just 127-30 (.809) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .867.
The Pirates are just 71-99 (.418) after a win since the 2022 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .511.
The Pirates are just 14-16 (.467) after a loss as favorites since the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .579.
Reds Hitting Stats & Trends
The Reds are batting just .116 on pitches out of the zone this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .153.
Reds hitters have an OPS of just .439 (1,388 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .505.
The Reds are batting just .213 at home this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .242.
The Reds are batting just .130 with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .168.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
The Pirates are batting just .127 on pitches out of the zone since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .154.
Pirates hitters have 49 strikeouts in 122 PA’s (40%) in lefty-lefty matchups this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Pirates hitters are slugging just .497 on the first pitch of at-bats since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .574.
The Pirates are batting just .152 with two-strikes since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .170.
Reds Pitching Stats & Trends
team pitchers – away
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Pirates pitchers have walked 1,403 of 15,256 batters (9%) since the 2022 season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates pitchers have walked 42 of 648 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The average home run distance against the Pirates pitchers this season is 402.2 feet — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 396.5
Pirates pitchers have an ERA of 4.74 (1285.1 IP) against division opponents since the 2022 season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.12.
Pirates vs. Reds Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Miguel Andujar (Pittsburgh Pirates): Knee, 10-Day IL
- Colin Holderman (Pittsburgh Pirates): Illness, 15-Day IL
- Johan Oviedo (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Dauri Moreta (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Carmen Mlodzinski (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Vince Velasquez (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, Out
- Mike Burrows (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, Out
- JT Brubaker (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Max Kranick (Pittsburgh Pirates): Hamstring, 15-Day IL
- Endy Rodriguez (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Ji Hwan Bae (Pittsburgh Pirates): Hip, 10-Day IL
- Austin Wynns (Cincinnati Reds): Shoulder, Day-To-Day
- Sam Moll (Cincinnati Reds): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Noelvi Marte (Cincinnati Reds): Suspension, Suspension
- Matt McLain (Cincinnati Reds): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Joey Votto (Cincinnati Reds): Ankle, Out
- Nick Lodolo (Cincinnati Reds): Calf, 15-Day IL
- TJ Friedl (Cincinnati Reds): Wrist, 10-Day IL
- Reiver Sanmartin (Cincinnati Reds): Elbow, Out
- Alex Young (Cincinnati Reds): Back, 15-Day IL
- Ian Gibaut (Cincinnati Reds): Forearm, 15-Day IL
- Brandon Williamson (Cincinnati Reds): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Connor Overton (Cincinnati Reds): Elbow, Out
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