- The Rays are -125 favorites vs the Reds
- Reds vs Rays Over / Under today: 7.5 Runs
- Reds / Rays TV Channel: BSOH | BSUN
The Cincinnati Reds (+110) visit Tropicana Field to take on the Tampa Bay Rays (-130) on Saturday, July 27, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in St. Petersburg, FL.
This season, the Reds are 50-53 against the spread (ATS), while the Rays are 50-54 ATS.
Reds vs Rays Starting Pitchers Today:
- Reds starting pitcher: Andrew Abbott 9-6, 3.20 ERA
- Rays starting pitcher: Zack Littell 3-7, 4.48 ERA
Reds vs. Rays Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Reds | +1.5 -190 | O 8 -110 | +110 |
| Rays | -1.5 +155 | U 8 -110 | -130 |
Reds vs Rays Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Reds will win Saturday‘s MLB game with 53.4% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Reds Player Prop Bets Today:
- TJ Friedl has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 9 away games (+17.10 Units / 190% ROI)
- Elly De La Cruz has hit the Stolen Bases Over in 12 of his last 18 away games (+14.20 Units / 79% ROI)
- Andrew Abbott has hit the Earned Runs Under in 16 of his last 20 games (+11.50 Units / 47% ROI)
- Spencer Steer has hit the Singles Under in 15 of his last 20 games (+9.60 Units / 39% ROI)
- Austin Slater has hit the Total Bases Under in 16 of his last 25 games (+9.45 Units / 29% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rays players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Rays Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Brandon Lowe has hit the Home Runs Over in 11 of his last 32 games (+22.80 Units / 71% ROI)
- Isaac Paredes has hit the Singles Under in 23 of his last 27 games (+17.30 Units / 44% ROI)
- Yandy Diaz has hit the Runs Under in 31 of his last 43 games (+15.20 Units / 26% ROI)
- Isaac Paredes has hit the Hits Under in 13 of his last 17 games (+15.00 Units / 88% ROI)
- Isaac Paredes has hit the Total Bases Under in 23 of his last 32 games (+12.70 Units / 26% ROI)
Reds Best Bets Today:
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 50 of their last 85 games (+12.20 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 49 of their last 87 games (+11.50 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Moneyline in 15 of their last 25 away games (+8.15 Units / 30% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Under in 50 of their last 88 games (+7.15 Units / 7% ROI)
Rays Best Bets Today:
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 63 of their last 101 games (+22.60 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Team Total Under in 55 of their last 95 games (+11.00 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Game Total Under in 15 of their last 24 games at home (+8.40 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have covered the Run Line in 21 of their last 33 games (+8.15 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 9 of their last 12 games at home (+6.05 Units / 39% ROI)
Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Reds are 58-45 against the Run Line (+8.35 Units / 6.12% ROI).
- 50-53 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.45 Units / -3.59% ROI
- 46-53 when betting on the total runs Over for -13.3 Units / -11.67% ROI
- 53-46 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.15 Units / 1.91% ROI
Rays Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Rays are 50-54 against the Run Line (-7.6 Units / -5.51% ROI).
- 52-52 when betting on the Moneyline for -9.05 Units / -7.05% ROI
- 50-51 when betting on the total runs Over for -5.85 Units / -5.11% ROI
- 51-50 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.7 Units / -3.23% ROI
Rays vs Reds Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Elly De La Cruz (CIN) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| Jeimer Candelario (CIN) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
| Will Benson (CIN) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
| Jose Siri (TB) | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
| Spencer Steer (CIN) | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
Rays vs Reds Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Tyler Stephenson (CIN) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Elly De La Cruz (CIN) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Jonathan India (CIN) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Spencer Steer (CIN) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Jeimer Candelario (CIN) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +160 |
Rays vs Reds RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Spencer Steer (CIN) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Isaac Paredes (TB) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Jeimer Candelario (CIN) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| TJ Friedl (CIN) | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
| Elly De La Cruz (CIN) | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
Rays vs Reds Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Andrew Abbott (CIN) | 4.5 -160 | 4.5 +120 |
| Zack Littell (TB) | 5.5 +115 | 5.5 -150 |
Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Andrew Abbott has walked 23 of 180 batters (13%) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — first Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 22% (48/214) against Andrew Abbott’s curve and slider since last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 105 total IP; League Avg: 42% — 0 Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 28% (91/321) against Andrew Abbott on non-fastballs since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 170 total IP; League Avg: 46% — 0 Percentile.
Andrew Abbott has walked 43 of 471 batters (9%) this season — tied for 9th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — 13th Percentile.
Rays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
12 of Zack Littell’s 32 breaking pitch strikeouts (38%) have been backdoor this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 15% — 100th Percentile.
Zack Littell has allowed a slugging percentage of .709 (151 Total Bases / 213 ABs) in non-two strike counts this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .533 — first Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .408 (87-for-213) against Zack Littell in non-two strike counts this season — tied for highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .317 — third Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 29% (36/125) against Zack Littell in two-strike counts this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 45% — first Percentile.
Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Rays
The Reds are just 2-12 (.143) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Reds are just 9-21 (.300) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Reds are just 1-10 (.091) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Reds are just 28-33 (.459) after a loss as favorites since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .586.
Rays Keys to the Game vs. the Reds
The Rays are just 14-29 (.326) after a win as underdogs since the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .424.
The Rays are 44-14 (.759) vs the bottom 10 runs allowed teams since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .573.
The Rays are 112-5 (.957) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .898.
The Rays are 53-4 (.930) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .794.
Reds Hitting Stats & Trends
team hitters – away
Rays Hitting Stats & Trends
Rays hitters have put just 31% of their swings in play on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 35%.
Rays hitters have put just 32% of their swings in play on the first pitch of at-bats since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 35%.
Rays hitters have 190 strikeouts in 583 PA’s (33%) in lefty-lefty matchups since the 2022 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Rays hitters have 232 strikeouts in 934 PA’s (25%) against LHP this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Reds Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 40% against Reds pitchers since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 40% against Reds pitchers this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 40% against Reds pitchers since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .291 against Reds pitchers with runners on base since the 2022 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .255.
Rays Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 39% against Rays pitchers this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
The Rays pitchers allowed division opponents to score first in just 29% of their games in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
The Rays pitchers allowed their opponents to score first in just 36% of their games in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Rays pitchers have walked 1,115 of 15,823 batters (7%) since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Rays vs. Reds Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Jeffrey Springs (Tampa Bay Rays): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Jonathan Aranda (Tampa Bay Rays): Oblique, 7-Day IL
- Ryan Pepiot (Tampa Bay Rays): Knee, 15-Day IL
- Yandy Diaz (Tampa Bay Rays): Personal, Out
- Garrett Acton (Tampa Bay Rays): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Drew Rasmussen (Tampa Bay Rays): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Shane McClanahan (Tampa Bay Rays): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Wander Franco (Tampa Bay Rays): Personal, Out
- Graham Ashcraft (Cincinnati Reds): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Nick Martini (Cincinnati Reds): Thumb, 60-Day IL
- Carson Spiers (Cincinnati Reds): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Christian Encarnacion-Strand (Cincinnati Reds): Wrist, 60-Day IL
- Tejay Antone (Cincinnati Reds): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Luke Maile (Cincinnati Reds): Back, 10-Day IL
- Matt McLain (Cincinnati Reds): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Joey Votto (Cincinnati Reds): Ankle, Day-To-Day
- TJ Friedl (Cincinnati Reds): Hamstring, 10-Day IL
- Brent Suter (Cincinnati Reds): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Reiver Sanmartin (Cincinnati Reds): Elbow, Out
- Ian Gibaut (Cincinnati Reds): Forearm, 60-Day IL
- Brandon Williamson (Cincinnati Reds): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Emilio Pagan (Cincinnati Reds): Lat, 60-Day IL
- Connor Overton (Cincinnati Reds): Elbow, 7-Day IL
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