- The Reds are -130 favorites vs the Rays
- Reds vs Rays Over / Under today: 7.5 Runs
- Reds / Rays TV Channel: Roku
The Cincinnati Reds (-120) visit Tropicana Field to take on the Tampa Bay Rays (+100) on Sunday, July 28, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 11:35am EDT in St. Petersburg, FL.
This season, the Reds are 50-54 against the spread (ATS), while the Rays are 51-54 ATS.
Reds vs Rays Starting Pitchers Today:
- Reds starting pitcher: Hunter Greene 7-4, 3.15 ERA
- Rays starting pitcher: Shawn Armstrong 2-2, 5.65 ERA
Reds vs. Rays Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Reds | -1.5 +145 | O 7.5 -115 | -120 |
| Rays | +1.5 -175 | U 7.5 -105 | +100 |
Reds vs Rays Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Reds will win Sunday‘s MLB game with 56.2% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Reds Player Prop Bets Today:
- TJ Friedl has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 10 away games (+16.10 Units / 161% ROI)
- Elly De La Cruz has hit the Stolen Bases Over in 12 of his last 19 away games (+13.20 Units / 69% ROI)
- Austin Slater has hit the Total Bases Under in 16 of his last 25 games (+9.45 Units / 29% ROI)
- Spencer Steer has hit the Singles Under in 15 of his last 21 games (+8.35 Units / 32% ROI)
- Hunter Greene has hit the Earned Runs Under in 14 of his last 20 games (+8.05 Units / 34% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rays players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Rays Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Brandon Lowe has hit the Home Runs Over in 11 of his last 33 games (+21.80 Units / 66% ROI)
- Isaac Paredes has hit the Singles Under in 24 of his last 28 games (+18.30 Units / 45% ROI)
- Isaac Paredes has hit the Hits Under in 14 of his last 18 games (+16.20 Units / 90% ROI)
- Isaac Paredes has hit the Total Bases Under in 24 of his last 33 games (+13.95 Units / 28% ROI)
- Yandy Diaz has hit the Runs Under in 31 of his last 44 games (+13.95 Units / 24% ROI)
Reds Best Bets Today:
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 50 of their last 88 games (+12.50 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 50 of their last 86 games (+10.30 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Under in 51 of their last 89 games (+8.30 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Moneyline in 15 of their last 26 away games (+7.15 Units / 26% ROI)
Rays Best Bets Today:
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 63 of their last 102 games (+21.00 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Team Total Under in 55 of their last 96 games (+10.00 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have covered the Run Line in 22 of their last 34 games (+9.80 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Game Total Under in 16 of their last 25 games at home (+9.40 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 10 of their last 13 games at home (+7.20 Units / 44% ROI)
Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Reds are 58-46 against the Run Line (+6.45 Units / 4.66% ROI).
- 50-54 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.45 Units / -4.36% ROI
- 46-54 when betting on the total runs Over for -14.4 Units / -12.51% ROI
- 54-46 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.15 Units / 2.77% ROI
Rays Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Rays are 51-54 against the Run Line (-5.95 Units / -4.28% ROI).
- 53-52 when betting on the Moneyline for -8.05 Units / -6.21% ROI
- 50-52 when betting on the total runs Over for -6.95 Units / -6.02% ROI
- 52-50 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.7 Units / -2.34% ROI
Rays vs Reds Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Brandon Lowe (TB) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Jeimer Candelario (CIN) | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
| Tyler Stephenson (CIN) | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -900 |
| Spencer Steer (CIN) | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -800 |
| Isaac Paredes (TB) | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -900 |
Rays vs Reds Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Tyler Stephenson (CIN) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Yandy Diaz (TB) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Amed Rosario (TB) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Jonathan India (CIN) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +145 |
| Elly De La Cruz (CIN) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +145 |
Rays vs Reds RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Tyler Stephenson (CIN) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -225 |
| Spencer Steer (CIN) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Jeimer Candelario (CIN) | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
| Brandon Lowe (TB) | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -275 |
| Elly De La Cruz (CIN) | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -300 |
Rays vs Reds Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Hunter Greene (CIN) | 6.5 -130 | 6.5 +100 |
| Shawn Armstrong (TB) | 1.5 -125 | 1.5 -105 |
Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Hunter Greene has walked 17 of 121 batters (14%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 6% — first Percentile.
57% of Hunter Greene’s strikeouts have come on 97+ MPH fastballs this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 9% — 100th Percentile.
Hunter Greene has struck out 31% (75/241) of left-handed batters he faced this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 97th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .114 (5-for-44) against Hunter Greene on low fastballs this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .267 — 100th Percentile.
Rays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting .560 (14-for-25) against Shawn Armstrong on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 3rd highest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: .316 — third Percentile.
Shawn Armstrong has an ERA of 5.84 this season — tied for 14th worst among qualified RPs– sixth Percentile. He had an ERA of 1.38 last season — fourth best among qualified RPs– 98th Percentile.
Shawn Armstrong has a strike rate of 69% (1,730/2,503) since the 2022 season — 2nd highest among AL Relievers; League Avg: 65% — 98th Percentile.
Left-handed batters are hitting .347 (25-for-72) against Shawn Armstrong this season — highest among AL Relievers; League Avg: .219 — first Percentile.
Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Rays
The Reds are just 28-33 (.459) after a loss as favorites since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .586.
The Reds are just 2-10 (.167) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Reds are just 3-12 (.200) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Reds are just 72-47 (.605) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .699.
Rays Keys to the Game vs. the Reds
The Rays are just 21-44 (.323) after a win as underdogs since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .415.
The Rays are just 14-30 (.318) after a win as underdogs since the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .423.
The Rays are 54-4 (.931) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .795.
The Rays are 44-14 (.759) vs the bottom 10 runs allowed teams since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .573.
Reds Hitting Stats & Trends
team hitters – away
Rays Hitting Stats & Trends
Rays hitters have 190 strikeouts in 586 PA’s (32%) in lefty-lefty matchups since the 2022 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
The Rays scored first in 64% of their games in the 2023 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Rays hitters have put just 31% of their swings in play on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 35%.
The Rays are batting .266 against LHP since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .252.
Reds Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 40% against Reds pitchers since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 40% against Reds pitchers this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .291 against Reds pitchers with runners on base since the 2022 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .255.
Reds pitchers have walked 939 of 10,205 batters (9%) since last season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Rays Pitching Stats & Trends
The Rays pitchers allowed their opponents to score first in just 36% of their games in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Rays pitchers have walked 1,120 of 15,891 batters (7%) since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 39% against Rays pitchers this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
The Rays pitchers allowed division opponents to score first in just 29% of their games in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Rays vs. Reds Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Jeffrey Springs (Tampa Bay Rays): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Jonathan Aranda (Tampa Bay Rays): Oblique, 7-Day IL
- Ryan Pepiot (Tampa Bay Rays): Knee, 15-Day IL
- Yandy Diaz (Tampa Bay Rays): Personal, Out
- Garrett Acton (Tampa Bay Rays): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Drew Rasmussen (Tampa Bay Rays): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Shane McClanahan (Tampa Bay Rays): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Wander Franco (Tampa Bay Rays): Personal, Out
- Graham Ashcraft (Cincinnati Reds): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Nick Martini (Cincinnati Reds): Thumb, 60-Day IL
- Carson Spiers (Cincinnati Reds): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Christian Encarnacion-Strand (Cincinnati Reds): Wrist, 60-Day IL
- Tejay Antone (Cincinnati Reds): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Luke Maile (Cincinnati Reds): Back, 10-Day IL
- Matt McLain (Cincinnati Reds): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Joey Votto (Cincinnati Reds): Ankle, Day-To-Day
- TJ Friedl (Cincinnati Reds): Hamstring, 10-Day IL
- Brent Suter (Cincinnati Reds): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Reiver Sanmartin (Cincinnati Reds): Elbow, Out
- Ian Gibaut (Cincinnati Reds): Forearm, 60-Day IL
- Brandon Williamson (Cincinnati Reds): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Emilio Pagan (Cincinnati Reds): Lat, 60-Day IL
- Connor Overton (Cincinnati Reds): Elbow, 7-Day IL
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