The Cincinnati Reds (-105) visit Salt River Fields at Talking Stick to take on the Colorado Rockies (-115) on Saturday, March 2, 2024. First pitch is for this Spring Training game is scheduled for 3:10pm EST in Scottsdale, AZ.
This season, the Reds are 2-1 against the spread (ATS), while the Rockies are 4-2 ATS.
Reds vs. Rockies Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Moneyline | |
| Reds | -105 |
| Rockies | -115 |
Reds vs Rockies Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Reds will win Saturday‘s matchup with 51.0% confidence, based on game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Reds Player Prop Bets Today:
- Elly De La Cruz has hit the Stolen Bases Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 36% ROI)
- Spencer Steer has hit the Hits Over in his last 2 games (+2.85 Units / 76% ROI)
- Curt Casali has hit the Runs Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 40% ROI)
- Christian Encarnacio has hit the Hits Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 40% ROI)
- Jonathan India has hit the Hits Over in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 38% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rockies players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Rockies Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Brian Serven has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 84% ROI)
- Elias Diaz has hit the Hits Under in 3 of his last 4 games (+3.00 Units / 40% ROI)
- Charlie Blackmon has hit the Hits Under in his last 2 games (+2.90 Units / 81% ROI)
- Ezequiel Tovar has hit the Hits Under in his last 2 games (+2.90 Units / 78% ROI)
- Hunter Goodman has hit the RBIs Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 37% ROI)
Reds Best Bets Today:
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Moneyline in 41 of their last 67 away games (+23.65 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 96 of their last 161 games (+20.80 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 45 of their last 72 games (+16.80 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Over in 41 of their last 65 away games (+14.05 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 12 of their last 18 away games (+4.93 Units / 22% ROI)
Rockies Best Bets Today:
- The Colorado Rockies have hit the Moneyline in 34 of their last 69 games at home (+12.00 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Colorado Rockies have covered the Run Line in 39 of their last 69 games at home (+11.30 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Colorado Rockies have hit the Game Total Under in 82 of their last 150 games (+9.05 Units / 5% ROI)
- The Colorado Rockies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 4 of their last 6 games (+1.20 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Colorado Rockies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 2 of their last 5 games (+0.27 Units / 5% ROI)
Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this Spring Training, the Reds are 3-1 against the Run Line (+2 Units / 33.9% ROI).
- 2-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.95 Units / 22.35% ROI
- 2-2 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.4 Units / -8.79% ROI
- 2-2 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.25 Units / -5.88% ROI
Rockies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this Spring Training, the Rockies are 4-2 against the Run Line (+2 Units / 26.85% ROI).
- 5-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +5.24 Units / 81.88% ROI
- 4-2 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.75 Units / 25.93% ROI
- 2-4 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.3 Units / -35.66% ROI
Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Left-handed hitters had a groundball rate of just 25% (32/128) against Hunter Greene in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 42% — 0 Percentile.
Hunter Greene struck out 34% (83/244) of left-handed batters he faced in the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 22% — 98th Percentile.
Hunter Greene has averaged 98.6 MPH on fastballs since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 129 total IP; League Avg: 93.4 — 100th Percentile.
Hunter Greene had an average fastball velocity of 98.4 MPH in the 2023 season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 93.6 — 99th Percentile.
Rockies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Cal Quantrill had a strikeout rate of just 15% (19/128) on low non-fastballs in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 34% — first Percentile.
Opponents had a miss rate of just 6% (7/127) against Cal Quantrill on inside fastballs in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 16% — first Percentile.
Cal Quantrill had a strikeout rate of just 13% (58/444) in the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 22% — first Percentile.
Cal Quantrill had a strike rate of just 59% (527/900) vs left-handed batters in the 2023 season — 5th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 63% — fifth Percentile.
Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Rockies
The Reds are just 48-38 (.558) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .697.
The Reds are just 40-46 (.465) when they’ve scored in the first inning since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .637.
The Reds were just 24-12 (.667) when they had 5 or more XBH in the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .790.
The Reds were 13-63 (.171) when trailing entering the 8th inning in the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .100.
Rockies Keys to the Game vs. the Reds
The Rockies were just 40-20 (.667) when leading entering the 7th inning in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .859.
The Rockies were just 44-13 (.772) when leading entering the 8th inning in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .900.
The Rockies were just 15-14 (.517) when they had 5 or more XBH in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .790.
The Rockies are just 60-56 (.517) when they’ve had 10 or more hits since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .728.
Reds Hitting Stats & Trends
The Reds have a winning percentage of just 44% at home since last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.
The Reds have won just 57% of games in which they have scored first at home since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 72%.
Reds hitters had a swing rate of just 45% in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
The Reds have hit 1,462 balls in play with an exit velocity of 95 MPH or greater in the 2023 season — 4th fewest in MLB.
Rockies Hitting Stats & Trends
The Rockies have won just 49% of games in which they have scored in at least three different innings on the road since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 72%.
The Rockies have an average HR distance of 411.4 feet since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 398.7.
The Rockies won just 53% of games in which they have scored three or more runs in an inning in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 75%.
The Rockies have won just 58% of games in which they have scored three or more runs in an inning since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 76%.
Reds Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents had a groundball rate of just 40% against Reds pitchers in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Reds pitchers walked 613 of 6,310 batters (10%) in the 2023 season — tied for 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Reds pitchers walked 140 of 1,443 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning in the 2023 season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Reds pitchers won 46% of games in which they allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road in the 2023 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Rockies Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents had a miss rate of just 21% against Rockies pitchers in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Rockies pitchers had a strikeout rate of just 37% with two-strikes in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Rockies pitchers had an ERA of 6.13 (735.0 IP) at home in the 2023 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.23.
Rockies pitchers had a strikeout rate of just 18% in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Rockies vs. Reds Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- German Marquez (Colorado Rockies): Elbow, Out
- Austin Gomber (Colorado Rockies): Back, Out
- Lucas Gilbreath (Colorado Rockies): Elbow, Out
- Antonio Senzatela (Colorado Rockies): Elbow, Out
- Kyle Freeland (Colorado Rockies): Oblique, Out
- Daniel Bard (Colorado Rockies): Knee, Out
- Sam Moll (Cincinnati Reds): Shoulder, Day-To-Day
- Noelvi Marte (Cincinnati Reds): Hamstring, Out
- Jonathan India (Cincinnati Reds): Foot, Day-To-Day
- Matt McLain (Cincinnati Reds): Oblique, Out
- Nick Lodolo (Cincinnati Reds): Lower Leg, Day-To-Day
- Reiver Sanmartin (Cincinnati Reds): Elbow, Out
- Alex Young (Cincinnati Reds): Back, Day-To-Day
- Emilio Pagan (Cincinnati Reds): Abdomen, Out
- Connor Overton (Cincinnati Reds): Elbow, Out
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