- The Blue Jays are -130 favorites vs the Royals
- Royals vs Blue Jays Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Royals / Blue Jays TV Channel: ESPN+ | BSKC
The Kansas City Royals (+110) visit Rogers Centre to take on the Toronto Blue Jays (-130) on Wednesday, May 1, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 3:07pm EDT in Toronto, ON.
This season, the Royals are 18-13 against the spread (ATS), while the Blue Jays are 14-17 ATS.
Royals vs Blue Jays Starting Pitchers Today:
- Royals starting pitcher: Seth Lugo 4-1, 1.63 ERA
- Blue Jays starting pitcher: Chris Bassitt 2-4, 5.58 ERA
Royals vs. Blue Jays Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Royals | +1.5 -185 | O 8 -110 | +110 |
| Blue Jays | -1.5 +150 | U 8 -110 | -130 |
Royals vs Blue Jays Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Blue Jays will win Wednesday‘s MLB game with 53.1% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Royals players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Royals Player Prop Bets Today:
- MJ Melendez has hit the Hits Under in 12 of his last 14 games (+14.60 Units / 104% ROI)
- MJ Melendez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 13 of his last 14 games (+11.80 Units / 67% ROI)
- MJ Melendez has hit the Total Bases Under in 12 of his last 14 games (+11.65 Units / 71% ROI)
- Maikel Garcia has hit the Singles Under in 19 of his last 31 games (+11.55 Units / 37% ROI)
- MJ Melendez has hit the Runs Under in 13 of his last 14 games (+11.30 Units / 51% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Blue Jays players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Blue Jays Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- George Springer has hit the Runs Under in 20 of his last 25 games (+14.60 Units / 49% ROI)
- George Springer has hit the RBIs Under in 16 of his last 17 games (+13.75 Units / 34% ROI)
- Daulton Varsho has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 16 games (+13.20 Units / 82% ROI)
- George Springer has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 19 of his last 27 games (+10.70 Units / 35% ROI)
- Bo Bichette has hit the Hits Under in 19 of his last 25 games (+9.55 Units / 19% ROI)
Royals Best Bets Today:
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Moneyline in 12 of their last 17 games (+13.10 Units / 77% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Over in 33 of their last 59 games (+9.10 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 11 of their last 16 games (+5.49 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have covered the Run Line in 12 of their last 17 games (+5.00 Units / 22% ROI)
Blue Jays Best Bets Today:
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Team Total Under in 40 of their last 66 games at home (+12.34 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Under in 61 of their last 111 games (+11.50 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 18 of their last 26 games (+9.66 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 4 of their last 9 games at home (+1.85 Units / 15% ROI)
Royals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Royals are 20-11 against the Run Line (+5.54 Units / 12.35% ROI).
- 18-13 when betting on the Moneyline for +7.05 Units / 20% ROI
- 10-18 when betting on the total runs Over for -9.7 Units / -29.39% ROI
- 18-10 when betting on the total runs Under for +7 Units / 21.15% ROI
Blue Jays Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Blue Jays are 14-17 against the Run Line (-5.3 Units / -12.73% ROI).
- 15-16 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.95 Units / -7.68% ROI
- 12-19 when betting on the total runs Over for -8.8 Units / -26.04% ROI
- 19-12 when betting on the total runs Under for +5.6 Units / 16.28% ROI
Blue Jays vs Royals Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Danny Jansen (TOR) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -500 |
| MJ Melendez (KC) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -650 |
| Salvador Perez (KC) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Daulton Varsho (TOR) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
Blue Jays vs Royals Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Justin Turner (TOR) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Isiah Kiner-Falefa (TOR) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Vinnie Pasquantino (KC) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Freddy Fermin (KC) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Danny Jansen (TOR) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
Blue Jays vs Royals RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Salvador Perez (KC) | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -165 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. (KC) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -185 |
| Justin Turner (TOR) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -175 |
| Vinnie Pasquantino (KC) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -190 |
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
Blue Jays vs Royals Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
Royals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Seth Lugo has a strikeout rate of just 13% (7 SO in 54 PAs) when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — tied for 4th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — fifth Percentile.
Seth Lugo has walked 1 of 54 batters (2%) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — tied for 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — 98th Percentile.
Seth Lugo has struck out just 13% (9/67) of right-handed batters he faced this season — 4th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — fifth Percentile.
Seth Lugo has a strikeout rate of just 29% (23 SO in 78 PAs) with two-strikes this season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — second Percentile.
Blue Jays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of just 6% (2/32) against Chris Bassitt on the first pitch of at-bats this season — tied for lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — second Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 6% (2/32) against Chris Bassitt on the first pitch of at-bats this season — tied for lowest among among AL Starters; League Avg: 26% — fourth Percentile.
Chris Bassitt has allowed an OBP of .500 (66 PA’s) vs left-handed batters this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .304 — first Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .455 (10-for-22) against Chris Bassitt’s elevated fastball this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .212 — second Percentile.
Royals Keys to the Game vs. the Blue Jays
The Royals are just 18-14 (.562) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH since the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .791.
The Royals are just 18-45 (.286) after a road win since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .491.
The Royals are just 13-87 (.130) when their opponents score in the first inning since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .364.
The Royals are just 9-46 (.164) when their opponents score in the first inning since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .386.
Blue Jays Keys to the Game vs. the Royals
The Blue Jays are just 10-65 (.133) when allowing 5 or more runs since the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .215.
The Blue Jays are 21-10 (.677) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2023 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Blue Jays are 22-17 (.564) after a loss as underdogs since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .410.
The Blue Jays are 16-11 (.593) after a loss as underdogs since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .424.
Royals Hitting Stats & Trends
Royals hitters have an OBP of just .280 (3,479 PA’s) on the road since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .316.
The Royals have won just 51% of games in which they have scored in at least three different innings on the road since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 72%.
The Royals have won just 45% of games in which they have scored in at least three different innings on the road since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 71%.
The Royals have a winning percentage of just 31% on the road since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Blue Jays Hitting Stats & Trends
Blue Jays hitters are slugging just .373 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .549.
Blue Jays hitters have an OBP of .341 (1,658 PA’s) against LHP since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .322.
Blue Jays hitters have just 561 strikeouts in 2,897 PA’s (19%) against LHP since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Blue Jays hitters are slugging just .143 on pitches out of the zone this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .217.
Royals Pitching Stats & Trends
The Royals have won just 20% of games in which their opponents scored first since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 32%.
The Royals won just 18% of games in which their opponents scored first in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 34%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Royals pitchers this season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
The Royals have won just 13% of road games in which their opponents scored first since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
Blue Jays Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of just 22% against Blue Jays pitchers this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
The Blue Jays pitchers have allowed the 30th hardest ball in play hit (119.2 MPH) this season (; League Avg: 114.6).
Blue Jays pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 18% with runners in scoring position this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 21%.
Blue Jays pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 39% with two-strikes this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Blue Jays vs. Royals Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Erik Swanson (Toronto Blue Jays): Forearm, 15-Day IL
- Jordan Romano (Toronto Blue Jays): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Bo Bichette (Toronto Blue Jays): Neck, Day-To-Day
- Danny Jansen (Toronto Blue Jays): Wrist, 10-Day IL
- Alek Manoah (Toronto Blue Jays): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Kyle Wright (Kansas City Royals): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Austin Cox (Kansas City Royals): Knee, Day-To-Day
- Michael Massey (Kansas City Royals): Back, 10-Day IL
- Jake Brentz (Kansas City Royals): Hamstring, 15-Day IL
- Josh Taylor (Kansas City Royals): Biceps, 15-Day IL
- Carlos Hernandez (Kansas City Royals): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Kris Bubic (Kansas City Royals): Elbow, 60-Day IL
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