- The Royals are -125 favorites vs the Red Sox
- Royals vs Red Sox Over / Under today: 9 Runs
- Royals / Red Sox TV Channel: NESN | BSKC
The Kansas City Royals (-125) visit Fenway Park to take on the Boston Red Sox (+105) on Friday, July 12, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Boston, MA.
This season, the Royals are 51-43 against the spread (ATS), while the Red Sox are 44-48 ATS.
Royals vs Red Sox Starting Pitchers Today:
- Royals starting pitcher: Cole Ragans 5-6, 3.30 ERA
- Red Sox starting pitcher: Undecided 0-0, 0.00 ERA
Royals vs. Red Sox Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Royals | -1.5 +125 | O 9 -105 | -125 |
| Red Sox | +1.5 -155 | U 9 -115 | +105 |
Royals vs Red Sox Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Royals will win Friday‘s MLB game with 54.9% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Royals players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Royals Player Prop Bets Today:
- Salvador Perez has hit the RBIs Under in 26 of his last 31 games (+18.25 Units / 37% ROI)
- Salvador Perez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 23 of his last 31 games (+14.80 Units / 41% ROI)
- Vinnie Pasquantino has hit the Total Bases Under in 18 of his last 21 away games (+14.65 Units / 46% ROI)
- Maikel Garcia has hit the Hits Under in 18 of his last 22 games (+13.85 Units / 32% ROI)
- Maikel Garcia has hit the Singles Under in 14 of his last 21 games (+11.70 Units / 55% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Red Sox Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Rafael Devers has hit the Runs Over in 27 of his last 39 games (+16.65 Units / 39% ROI)
- Rafael Devers has hit the Home Runs Over in 11 of his last 37 games (+11.95 Units / 32% ROI)
- Jarren Duran has hit the Hits Over in 11 of his last 14 games (+11.75 Units / 53% ROI)
- Wilyer Abreu has hit the Walks Under in 13 of his last 14 games at home (+11.25 Units / 40% ROI)
- Jarren Duran has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 25 of his last 38 games (+10.15 Units / 22% ROI)
Royals Best Bets Today:
- The Kansas City Royals have covered the Run Line in 52 of their last 90 games (+7.09 Units / 6% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Under in 16 of their last 25 games (+7.00 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 8 of their last 11 games (+4.75 Units / 35% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Moneyline in 38 of their last 71 games (+2.25 Units / 3% ROI)
Red Sox Best Bets Today:
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 30 of their last 49 games (+12.40 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 18 of their last 25 games (+10.30 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 19 of their last 31 games at home (+6.55 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 13 of their last 19 games at home (+6.05 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 17 of their last 28 games at home (+5.30 Units / 16% ROI)
Royals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Royals are 53-41 against the Run Line (+3.49 Units / 2.69% ROI).
- 51-43 when betting on the Moneyline for +7.05 Units / 6.21% ROI
- 40-50 when betting on the total runs Over for -14.8 Units / -14.5% ROI
- 50-40 when betting on the total runs Under for +5.8 Units / 5.65% ROI
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Red Sox are 44-48 against the Run Line (-9.55 Units / -7.84% ROI).
- 51-41 when betting on the Moneyline for +5.35 Units / 4.67% ROI
- 44-43 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.75 Units / -2.72% ROI
- 43-44 when betting on the total runs Under for -5.2 Units / -5.12% ROI
Royals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting just .177 (28-for-158) against Cole Ragans when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — 4th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .232 — 95th Percentile.
Cole Ragans has allowed a slugging percentage of just .352 (183 Total Bases / 520 ABs) on pitches in the strike zone since last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 101 total IP; League Avg: .490 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of 33% (293/898) against Cole Ragans this season — tied for 4th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — 95th Percentile.
Cole Ragans has walked 33 of 368 right-handed batters (9%) this season — 7th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 6% — 10th Percentile.
Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Left-handed batters are hitting .329 (25-for-76) against Josh Winckowski this season — 3rd highest among AL Relievers; League Avg: .218 — third Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .287 (31-for-108) against Josh Winckowski’s elevated fastball since the 2022 season — 6th highest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: .204 — fifth Percentile.
Josh Winckowski has thrown inside pitches 49% of the time (736/1,498) vs left-handed batters since the 2022 season — 2nd highest among AL Relievers; League Avg: 31% — 98th Percentile.
Left-handed batters are hitting .271 (58-for-214) against Josh Winckowski since last season — tied for 10th highest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: .228 — 12th Percentile.
Royals Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Royals are just 20-96 (.172) when their opponents score in the first inning since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .362.
The Royals are just 25-54 (.316) after a road win since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .485.
The Royals are just 40-56 (.417) vs the bottom 10 runs allowed teams since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .577.
The Royals are just 18-33 (.353) vs the bottom 10 runs allowed teams since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .573.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Royals
The Red Sox are 45-9 (.833) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .724.
The Red Sox are just 5-175 (.028) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2022 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .050.
The Red Sox are 60-18 (.769) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .693.
The Red Sox are 100-8 (.926) when leading entering the 7th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .860.
Royals Hitting Stats & Trends
The Royals have won just 53% of games in which they have scored in at least three different innings on the road since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 72%.
The Royals won just 46% of games in which they have scored in at least three different innings on the road in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 71%.
Royals hitters are slugging .271 on pitches out of the zone this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .210.
Royals hitters have an OBP of just .281 (4,619 PA’s) on the road since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .313.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
Red Sox hitters have 293 strikeouts in 1,004 PA’s (29%) against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Red Sox are batting .261 with two outs this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .233.
Red Sox hitters have an OPS of .902 (259 PA’s) against RHP this month (9 games) — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .733.
Red Sox hitters have put just 31% of their swings in play against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Royals Pitching Stats & Trends
Royals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 40% with two-strikes since the 2022 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Royals pitchers have an ERA of 2.81 (227.0 IP) against division opponents this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.15.
The Royals have won just 15% of road games in which their opponents scored first since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Royals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% in late innings this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
Red Sox pitchers have an ERA of 3.26 (405.1 IP) on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.21.
Red Sox pitchers have walked 241 of 3,451 batters (7%) this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Red Sox pitchers have walked 51 of 827 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Red Sox pitchers have 165 three-pitch strikeouts this season — 2nd most in MLB.
Red Sox vs. Royals Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Wyatt Mills (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Vaughn Grissom (Boston Red Sox): Hamstring, 10-Day IL
- Michael Fulmer (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Zack Kelly (Boston Red Sox): Oblique, Day-To-Day
- Bryan Mata (Boston Red Sox): Hamstring, 15-Day IL
- Chris Murphy (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Kenley Jansen (Boston Red Sox): Back, Day-To-Day
- Brandon Walter (Boston Red Sox): Shoulder, 7-Day IL
- Lucas Giolito (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Rob Refsnyder (Boston Red Sox): Toe, 10-Day IL
- Yu Chang (Boston Red Sox): Oblique, Out
- Kyle Wright (Kansas City Royals): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Austin Cox (Kansas City Royals): Knee, Day-To-Day
- Michael Massey (Kansas City Royals): Back, 10-Day IL
- Jake Brentz (Kansas City Royals): Hamstring, 15-Day IL
- Josh Taylor (Kansas City Royals): Biceps, 15-Day IL
- Carlos Hernandez (Kansas City Royals): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Kris Bubic (Kansas City Royals): Elbow, 60-Day IL
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