- The Red Sox are -130 favorites vs the Royals
- Royals vs Red Sox Over / Under today: 9 Runs
- Royals / Red Sox TV Channel: NESN | BSKC
The Kansas City Royals (+110) visit Fenway Park to take on the Boston Red Sox (-130) on Saturday, July 13, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in Boston, MA.
This season, the Royals are 52-43 against the spread (ATS), while the Red Sox are 44-49 ATS.
Royals vs Red Sox Starting Pitchers Today:
- Royals starting pitcher: Seth Lugo 11-3, 2.20 ERA
- Red Sox starting pitcher: Kutter Crawford 5-7, 3.25 ERA
Royals vs. Red Sox Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Royals | +1.5 -175 | O 9 -110 | +110 |
| Red Sox | -1.5 +145 | U 9 -110 | -130 |
Royals vs Red Sox Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Red Sox will win Saturday‘s MLB game with 53.1% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Royals players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Royals Player Prop Bets Today:
- Salvador Perez has hit the RBIs Under in 26 of his last 31 games (+18.25 Units / 37% ROI)
- Salvador Perez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 23 of his last 31 games (+14.80 Units / 41% ROI)
- Vinnie Pasquantino has hit the Total Bases Under in 18 of his last 21 away games (+14.65 Units / 46% ROI)
- Maikel Garcia has hit the Hits Under in 18 of his last 22 games (+13.85 Units / 32% ROI)
- Maikel Garcia has hit the Singles Under in 14 of his last 21 games (+11.70 Units / 55% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Red Sox Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Rafael Devers has hit the Runs Over in 27 of his last 39 games (+16.65 Units / 39% ROI)
- Rafael Devers has hit the Home Runs Over in 11 of his last 37 games (+11.95 Units / 32% ROI)
- Jarren Duran has hit the Hits Over in 11 of his last 14 games (+11.75 Units / 53% ROI)
- Wilyer Abreu has hit the Walks Under in 13 of his last 14 games at home (+11.25 Units / 40% ROI)
- Jarren Duran has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 25 of his last 38 games (+10.15 Units / 22% ROI)
Royals Best Bets Today:
- The Kansas City Royals have covered the Run Line in 53 of their last 91 games (+8.49 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Under in 17 of their last 26 games (+8.00 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 9 of their last 12 games (+5.80 Units / 40% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Moneyline in 39 of their last 72 games (+3.25 Units / 4% ROI)
Red Sox Best Bets Today:
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 30 of their last 50 games (+11.20 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 18 of their last 26 games (+9.20 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 20 of their last 32 games at home (+7.55 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 12 of their last 18 games (+4.90 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 13 of their last 20 games at home (+4.70 Units / 18% ROI)
Royals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Royals are 54-41 against the Run Line (+4.89 Units / 3.74% ROI).
- 52-43 when betting on the Moneyline for +8.05 Units / 7.03% ROI
- 40-51 when betting on the total runs Over for -16 Units / -15.5% ROI
- 51-40 when betting on the total runs Under for +6.8 Units / 6.56% ROI
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Red Sox are 44-49 against the Run Line (-11.2 Units / -9.07% ROI).
- 51-42 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.25 Units / 3.67% ROI
- 44-44 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.95 Units / -3.87% ROI
- 44-44 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.2 Units / -4.1% ROI
Red Sox vs Royals Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Salvador Perez (KC) | 0.5 +290 | 0.5 -375 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. (KC) | 0.5 +350 | 0.5 -450 |
| Vinnie Pasquantino (KC) | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -500 |
| MJ Melendez (KC) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -500 |
| Rafael Devers (BOS) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
Red Sox vs Royals Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Tyler O'Neill (BOS) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Salvador Perez (KC) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Rafael Devers (BOS) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Vinnie Pasquantino (KC) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Ceddanne Rafaela (BOS) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
Red Sox vs Royals RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Salvador Perez (KC) | 0.5 +120 | 0.5 -160 |
| Tyler O'Neill (BOS) | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -160 |
| Rafael Devers (BOS) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -175 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. (KC) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -175 |
| Vinnie Pasquantino (KC) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
Red Sox vs Royals Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Seth Lugo (KC) | 5.5 -130 | 5.5 +100 |
| Kutter Crawford (BOS) | 5.5 +130 | 5.5 -175 |
Royals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Seth Lugo has thrown breaking pitches 48% of the time (521/1,093) on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 30% — 96th Percentile.
Seth Lugo has an average spin rate of 3228.6 RPM on curveballs since the 2022 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 163 total IP; League Avg: 2525.2 — 100th Percentile.
12 of Seth Lugo’s breaking pitch strikeouts are backdoor this season — tied for 4th most among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: nan — 95th Percentile.
Seth Lugo has allowed a slugging percentage of just .227 (15 Total Bases / 66 ABs) on elevated fastballs this season — 7th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .358 — 88th Percentile.
Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Kutter Crawford has a strike rate of 79% (111/140) in his last two starts — highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 65% — 100th Percentile.
Kutter Crawford has a strike rate of 79% (111/140) this month (2 games) — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 65% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 31% (33/106) against Kutter Crawford in two-strike counts this season — tied for 3rd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 45% — sixth Percentile.
Opposing hitters have a groundball rate of just 20% (9/46) against Kutter Crawford when he’s behind in the count this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 37 total IP; League Avg: 39% — 0 Percentile.
Royals Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Royals are just 18-33 (.353) vs the bottom 10 runs allowed teams since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .573.
The Royals are just 26-54 (.325) after a road win since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .485.
The Royals are just 36-39 (.480) when they’ve scored in the first inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .622.
The Royals are 21-30 (.412) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .275.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Royals
The Red Sox are 45-9 (.833) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .725.
The Red Sox are just 52-170 (.234) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since the 2022 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .280.
The Red Sox are 172-12 (.935) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2022 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .905.
The Red Sox are 31-3 (.912) when they’ve had 10 or more hits this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .754.
Royals Hitting Stats & Trends
Royals hitters have an OBP of just .281 (4,658 PA’s) on the road since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .313.
The Royals have won just 53% of games in which they have scored in at least three different innings on the road since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 72%.
Royals hitters are slugging .272 on pitches out of the zone this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .210.
The Royals are batting .187 on pitches out of the zone this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .153.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
Red Sox hitters have 54 strikeouts in 149 PA’s (36%) against LHP over the last 14 days — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Red Sox hitters have 300 strikeouts in 1,029 PA’s (29%) against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Red Sox hitters have put just 31% of their swings in play against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Red Sox hitters have 668 strikeouts in 2,607 PA’s (26%) against LHP since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Royals Pitching Stats & Trends
Royals pitchers won only 14% of games in which they allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
The Royals have won just 23% of games in which their opponents scored first since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 32%.
Royals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 18% in close and late situations this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Royals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% with runners in scoring position since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
Red Sox pitchers have walked 243 of 3,490 batters (7%) this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Red Sox pitchers have 165 three-pitch strikeouts this season — 2nd most in MLB.
Red Sox pitchers have 417 three-pitch strikeouts since last season — 5th most in MLB.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .284 against Red Sox pitchers with runners on base this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: .259.
Red Sox vs. Royals Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Wyatt Mills (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Vaughn Grissom (Boston Red Sox): Hamstring, 10-Day IL
- Michael Fulmer (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Zack Kelly (Boston Red Sox): Oblique, Day-To-Day
- Bryan Mata (Boston Red Sox): Hamstring, 15-Day IL
- Chris Murphy (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Kenley Jansen (Boston Red Sox): Back, Day-To-Day
- Brandon Walter (Boston Red Sox): Shoulder, 7-Day IL
- Lucas Giolito (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Rob Refsnyder (Boston Red Sox): Toe, 10-Day IL
- Yu Chang (Boston Red Sox): Oblique, Out
- Kyle Wright (Kansas City Royals): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Austin Cox (Kansas City Royals): Knee, Day-To-Day
- Michael Massey (Kansas City Royals): Back, 10-Day IL
- Jake Brentz (Kansas City Royals): Hamstring, 15-Day IL
- Josh Taylor (Kansas City Royals): Biceps, 15-Day IL
- Carlos Hernandez (Kansas City Royals): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Kris Bubic (Kansas City Royals): Elbow, 60-Day IL
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