- The Reds are -135 favorites vs the Royals
- Royals vs Reds Over / Under today: 10 Runs
- Royals / Reds TV Channel: ESPN+ | BSOH | BSKC
The Kansas City Royals (+115) visit Great American Ball Park to take on the Cincinnati Reds (-135) on Friday, August 16, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Cincinnati, OH.
This season, the Royals are 66-55 against the spread (ATS), while the Reds are 69-52 ATS.
Royals vs Reds Starting Pitchers Today:
- Royals starting pitcher: Michael Lorenzen 5-6, 3.83 ERA
- Reds starting pitcher: Nick Martinez 6-5, 3.17 ERA
Royals vs. Reds Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Royals | +1.5 -190 | O 10 -120 | +115 |
| Reds | -1.5 +155 | U 10 +100 | -135 |
Royals vs Reds Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Reds will win Friday‘s MLB game with 52.9% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Royals players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Royals Player Prop Bets Today:
- Vinnie Pasquantino has hit the RBIs Over in 26 of his last 42 games (+18.95 Units / 45% ROI)
- Bobby Witt Jr. has hit the Home Runs Over in 11 of his last 35 games (+18.90 Units / 54% ROI)
- Bobby Witt Jr. has hit the Runs Over in 26 of his last 36 games (+11.90 Units / 23% ROI)
- Kyle Isbel has hit the Hits Under in 17 of his last 28 games (+10.75 Units / 38% ROI)
- Bobby Witt Jr. has hit the Singles Over in 25 of his last 34 games (+10.60 Units / 18% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Reds Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- TJ Friedl has hit the Home Runs Over in 8 of his last 34 games (+30.80 Units / 91% ROI)
- Jonathan India has hit the Hits Under in 19 of his last 30 games (+15.55 Units / 41% ROI)
- Jonathan India has hit the Singles Under in 26 of his last 37 games (+14.45 Units / 34% ROI)
- Jonathan India has hit the Total Bases Under in 18 of his last 23 games (+10.45 Units / 29% ROI)
- Tyler Stephenson has hit the Runs Over in 10 of his last 13 games (+9.80 Units / 75% ROI)
Royals Best Bets Today:
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Over in 13 of their last 17 games (+8.70 Units / 47% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 24 of their last 38 games (+8.55 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have covered the Run Line in 66 of their last 117 games (+8.39 Units / 5% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Moneyline in 11 of their last 16 away games (+6.15 Units / 29% ROI)
Reds Best Bets Today:
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 61 of their last 103 games (+15.00 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Under in 30 of their last 47 games at home (+10.60 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 57 of their last 105 games (+9.55 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Moneyline in 40 of their last 71 games (+8.30 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 35 of their last 59 games at home (+6.40 Units / 9% ROI)
Royals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Royals are 67-54 against the Run Line (+4.79 Units / 2.95% ROI).
- 66-55 when betting on the Moneyline for +7.65 Units / 5.02% ROI
- 55-62 when betting on the total runs Over for -12.85 Units / -9.78% ROI
- 62-55 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.1 Units / 0.83% ROI
Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Reds are 69-52 against the Run Line (+11.15 Units / 6.93% ROI).
- 60-61 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.95 Units / -2.03% ROI
- 55-61 when betting on the total runs Over for -12.95 Units / -9.69% ROI
- 61-55 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.2 Units / 0.15% ROI
Reds vs Royals Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Salvador Perez (KC) | 0.5 +280 | 0.5 -350 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. (KC) | 0.5 +300 | 0.5 -400 |
| Hunter Renfroe (KC) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -500 |
| Vinnie Pasquantino (KC) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -500 |
| MJ Melendez (KC) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
Reds vs Royals Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Salvador Perez (KC) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Jonathan India (CIN) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +195 |
| Ty France (CIN) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Spencer Steer (CIN) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Vinnie Pasquantino (KC) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
Reds vs Royals RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Salvador Perez (KC) | 0.5 +120 | 0.5 -160 |
| Tyler Stephenson (CIN) | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -175 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. (KC) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
| Spencer Steer (CIN) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Vinnie Pasquantino (KC) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
Reds vs Royals Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Michael Lorenzen (KC) | 4.5 +115 | 4.5 -150 |
| Nick Martinez (CIN) | 4.5 +125 | 4.5 -160 |
Royals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Michael Lorenzen allowed a batting average of .288 vs right-handed batters (tied for ninth worst)– ninth Percentile and just .161 vs left-handed batters this season (best among non-qualified SPs)– 100th Percentile.
Michael Lorenzen has allowed a BABIP of .179 vs left-handed batters this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 48 total IP; League Avg: .286 — 100th Percentile.
Michael Lorenzen has allowed a slugging percentage of just .290 (54 Total Bases / 186 ABs) vs left-handed batters this season — 5th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 48 total IP; League Avg: .410 — 94th Percentile.
Left-handed batters are hitting just .197 (99-for-502) against Michael Lorenzen since last season — 5th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 112 total IP; League Avg: .246 — 95th Percentile.
Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Nick Martinez has walked 10 of 367 batters (3%) this season — 2nd best among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 9% — 99th Percentile.
Nick Martinez has walked 10 of 367 batters (3%) this season — 2nd best among NL Relievers; League Avg: 8% — 98th Percentile.
Nick Martinez has walked 5 of 186 right-handed batters (3%) this season — 5th best among NL Relievers; League Avg: 8% — 95th Percentile.
Nick Martinez has walked 5 of 186 right-handed batters (3%) this season — 3rd best among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 8% — 97th Percentile.
Royals Keys to the Game vs. the Reds
The Royals are 25-37 (.403) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .270.
The Royals are just 14-72 (.163) when allowing 2 or more home runs since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .304.
The Royals are just 64-64 (.500) when they’ve scored in the first inning since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .639.
The Royals are just 41-44 (.482) when they’ve scored in the first inning since the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .625.
Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Royals
The Reds are just 31-34 (.477) after a loss as favorites since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .585.
The Reds are 13-20 (.394) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .242.
The Reds are just 11-22 (.333) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Reds are 51-5 (.911) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .854.
Royals Hitting Stats & Trends
Royals hitters have just 176 strikeouts in 999 PA’s (18%) against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Royals won just 46% of games in which they have scored in at least three different innings on the road in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 71%.
Royals hitters have an OBP of just .284 (5,125 PA’s) on the road since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .313.
The Royals have won just 53% of games in which they have scored in at least three different innings on the road since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 72%.
Reds Hitting Stats & Trends
The Reds are batting just .112 on pitches out of the zone this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .153.
The Reds are batting just .127 on pitches out of the zone since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .151.
Reds hitters are slugging just .148 on pitches out of the zone this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .209.
Reds hitters are slugging just .172 on pitches out of the zone since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .210.
Royals Pitching Stats & Trends
Royals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 21% since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Royals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 22% in close and late situations since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 24% against Royals pitchers since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Royals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% since the 2022 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Reds Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 40% against Reds pitchers since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 40% against Reds pitchers this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 40% against Reds pitchers since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Reds pitchers have a strikeout rate of 34% with runners in scoring position this month (12 games) — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Reds vs. Royals Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Graham Ashcraft (Cincinnati Reds): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Nick Martini (Cincinnati Reds): Thumb, 60-Day IL
- Carson Spiers (Cincinnati Reds): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Christian Encarnacion-Strand (Cincinnati Reds): Wrist, 60-Day IL
- Tejay Antone (Cincinnati Reds): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Luke Maile (Cincinnati Reds): Back, 10-Day IL
- Matt McLain (Cincinnati Reds): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Joey Votto (Cincinnati Reds): Ankle, Day-To-Day
- TJ Friedl (Cincinnati Reds): Hamstring, 10-Day IL
- Brent Suter (Cincinnati Reds): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Reiver Sanmartin (Cincinnati Reds): Elbow, Out
- Ian Gibaut (Cincinnati Reds): Forearm, 60-Day IL
- Brandon Williamson (Cincinnati Reds): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Emilio Pagan (Cincinnati Reds): Lat, 60-Day IL
- Connor Overton (Cincinnati Reds): Elbow, 7-Day IL
- MJ Melendez (Kansas City Royals): Ankle, 10-Day IL
- Kyle Wright (Kansas City Royals): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Josh Taylor (Kansas City Royals): Biceps, 60-Day IL
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