- The Reds are -135 favorites vs the Royals
- Royals vs Reds Over / Under today: 9.5 Runs
- Royals / Reds TV Channel: BSOH | BSKC
The Kansas City Royals (+110) visit Great American Ball Park to take on the Cincinnati Reds (-130) on Saturday, August 17, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Cincinnati, OH.
This season, the Royals are 67-55 against the spread (ATS), while the Reds are 69-53 ATS.
Royals vs Reds Starting Pitchers Today:
- Royals starting pitcher: Michael Wacha 9-6, 3.52 ERA
- Reds starting pitcher: Nick Lodolo 9-4, 4.05 ERA
Royals vs. Reds Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Royals | +1.5 -190 | O 9.5 -115 | +110 |
| Reds | -1.5 +155 | U 9.5 -105 | -130 |
Royals vs Reds Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Reds will win Saturday‘s MLB game with 52.6% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Royals players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Royals Player Prop Bets Today:
- Bobby Witt Jr. has hit the Home Runs Over in 12 of his last 36 games (+22.05 Units / 61% ROI)
- Vinnie Pasquantino has hit the RBIs Over in 27 of his last 43 games (+20.45 Units / 47% ROI)
- Bobby Witt Jr. has hit the Runs Over in 27 of his last 37 games (+12.90 Units / 24% ROI)
- Kyle Isbel has hit the Hits Under in 18 of his last 29 games (+11.85 Units / 41% ROI)
- Bobby Witt Jr. has hit the Singles Over in 26 of his last 35 games (+11.60 Units / 20% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Reds Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- TJ Friedl has hit the Home Runs Over in 8 of his last 35 games (+29.80 Units / 85% ROI)
- Jonathan India has hit the Singles Under in 27 of his last 38 games (+15.45 Units / 35% ROI)
- Jonathan India has hit the Hits Under in 19 of his last 31 games (+14.55 Units / 38% ROI)
- Spencer Steer has hit the Total Bases Under in 19 of his last 25 games (+11.10 Units / 29% ROI)
- Elly De La Cruz has hit the Runs Under in 22 of his last 32 games (+10.60 Units / 27% ROI)
Royals Best Bets Today:
- The Kansas City Royals have covered the Run Line in 67 of their last 118 games (+9.39 Units / 6% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Over in 13 of their last 18 games (+7.65 Units / 39% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 24 of their last 39 games (+7.55 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Moneyline in 12 of their last 17 away games (+7.35 Units / 34% ROI)
Reds Best Bets Today:
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 61 of their last 104 games (+14.00 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Under in 31 of their last 48 games at home (+11.70 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 58 of their last 106 games (+10.55 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 36 of their last 60 games at home (+7.40 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Moneyline in 40 of their last 72 games (+6.85 Units / 8% ROI)
Royals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Royals are 68-54 against the Run Line (+5.79 Units / 3.53% ROI).
- 67-55 when betting on the Moneyline for +8.85 Units / 5.77% ROI
- 55-63 when betting on the total runs Over for -13.9 Units / -10.49% ROI
- 63-55 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.1 Units / 1.57% ROI
Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Reds are 69-53 against the Run Line (+10.15 Units / 6.27% ROI).
- 60-62 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.4 Units / -3% ROI
- 55-62 when betting on the total runs Over for -14 Units / -10.39% ROI
- 62-55 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.2 Units / 0.9% ROI
Reds vs Royals Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Salvador Perez (KC) | 0.5 +275 | 0.5 -350 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. (KC) | 0.5 +320 | 0.5 -400 |
| Hunter Renfroe (KC) | 0.5 +340 | 0.5 -450 |
| Spencer Steer (CIN) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -550 |
| Jonathan India (CIN) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
Reds vs Royals Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Tyler Stephenson (CIN) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Jonathan India (CIN) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Spencer Steer (CIN) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Hunter Renfroe (KC) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Ty France (CIN) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
Reds vs Royals RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bobby Witt Jr. (KC) | 0.5 +105 | 0.5 -140 |
| Salvador Perez (KC) | 0.5 +120 | 0.5 -155 |
| Spencer Steer (CIN) | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -160 |
| Vinnie Pasquantino (KC) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Tyler Stephenson (CIN) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -200 |
Reds vs Royals Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Michael Wacha (KC) | 4.5 -130 | 4.5 +100 |
| Nick Lodolo (CIN) | 5.5 +105 | 5.5 -140 |
Royals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Michael Wacha has thrown his breaking pitches for a strike just 47% (166/355) of the time this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 48 total IP; League Avg: 63% — 0 Percentile.
Hitters have swung at 28% of Michael Wacha’s breaking pitches (98/355) this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 48 total IP; League Avg: 46% — 0 Percentile.
Hitters have chased just 37 of Michael Wacha’s 227 breaking balls out of the zone (chase rate of 16%) this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 48 total IP; League Avg: 31% — 0 Percentile.
Michael Wacha has thrown his changeup 48% of the time (252/522) with two-strikes this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 48 total CH; League Avg: 17% — 98th Percentile.
Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Nick Lodolo has allowed an OBP of .395 (403 PA’s) when going through the lineup the second time in a game since the 2022 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 178 total IP; League Avg: .306 — 0 Percentile.
Opponents have a Hard-Hit Rate of just 26% (19/74) against Nick Lodolo on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 113 total IP; League Avg: 43% — 100th Percentile.
Nick Lodolo has thrown inside pitches 44% of the time (229/525) with two-strikes this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 48 total IP; League Avg: 29% — 99th Percentile.
Nick Lodolo has allowed a slugging percentage of just .175 (18 Total Bases / 103 ABs) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 48 total IP; League Avg: .403 — 100th Percentile.
Royals Keys to the Game vs. the Reds
The Royals are just 18-33 (.353) vs the bottom 10 runs allowed teams since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .573.
The Royals are just 23-101 (.185) when their opponents score in the first inning since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .361.
The Royals are just 40-56 (.417) vs the bottom 10 runs allowed teams since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .577.
The Royals are just 26-113 (.187) when allowing 2 or more home runs since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .300.
Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Royals
The Reds are just 31-34 (.477) after a loss as favorites since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .585.
The Reds are just 11-22 (.333) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Reds are 13-21 (.382) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .242.
The Reds are 34-18 (.654) after a win as favorites since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .574.
Royals Hitting Stats & Trends
The Royals won just 46% of games in which they have scored in at least three different innings on the road in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 71%.
Royals hitters have an OBP of just .285 (5,165 PA’s) on the road since last season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .313.
The Royals won only 28% of their road games in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Royals hitters are slugging .261 on pitches out of the zone this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .209.
Reds Hitting Stats & Trends
The Reds are batting just .111 on pitches out of the zone this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .153.
Reds hitters are slugging just .146 on pitches out of the zone this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .209.
The Reds are batting just .126 on pitches out of the zone since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .151.
Reds hitters are slugging just .171 on pitches out of the zone since last season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .210.
Royals Pitching Stats & Trends
Royals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% in close and late situations this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 24% against Royals pitchers since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Royals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 40% with two-strikes since the 2022 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Royals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 22% in close and late situations since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Reds Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 40% against Reds pitchers since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 40% against Reds pitchers since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Reds pitchers have walked 983 of 10,860 batters (9%) since last season — tied for 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Reds pitchers have walked 354 of 3,947 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the 2022 season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Reds vs. Royals Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Graham Ashcraft (Cincinnati Reds): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Nick Martini (Cincinnati Reds): Thumb, 60-Day IL
- Carson Spiers (Cincinnati Reds): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Christian Encarnacion-Strand (Cincinnati Reds): Wrist, 60-Day IL
- Tejay Antone (Cincinnati Reds): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Luke Maile (Cincinnati Reds): Back, 10-Day IL
- Matt McLain (Cincinnati Reds): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Joey Votto (Cincinnati Reds): Ankle, Day-To-Day
- TJ Friedl (Cincinnati Reds): Hamstring, 10-Day IL
- Brent Suter (Cincinnati Reds): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Reiver Sanmartin (Cincinnati Reds): Elbow, Out
- Ian Gibaut (Cincinnati Reds): Forearm, 60-Day IL
- Brandon Williamson (Cincinnati Reds): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Emilio Pagan (Cincinnati Reds): Lat, 60-Day IL
- Connor Overton (Cincinnati Reds): Elbow, 7-Day IL
- MJ Melendez (Kansas City Royals): Ankle, 10-Day IL
- Kyle Wright (Kansas City Royals): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Josh Taylor (Kansas City Royals): Biceps, 60-Day IL
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