- The Royals are -160 favorites vs the Tigers
- Royals vs Tigers Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Royals / Tigers TV Channel: BSDT | BSKC
The Kansas City Royals (-160) visit Comerica Park to take on the Detroit Tigers (+135) on Thursday, August 1, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Detroit, MI.
This season, the Royals are 60-49 against the spread (ATS), while the Tigers are 55-54 ATS.
Royals vs Tigers Starting Pitchers Today:
- Royals starting pitcher: Seth Lugo 12-5, 2.65 ERA
- Tigers starting pitcher: Keider Montero 1-4, 6.45 ERA
Royals vs. Tigers Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Royals | -1.5 +100 | O 8.5 -115 | -160 |
| Tigers | +1.5 -120 | U 8.5 -105 | +135 |
Royals vs Tigers Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Royals will win Thursday‘s MLB game with 64.1% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Royals players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Royals Player Prop Bets Today:
- Vinnie Pasquantino has hit the RBIs Over in 19 of his last 30 games (+13.45 Units / 45% ROI)
- Kyle Isbel has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 9 away games (+13.00 Units / 144% ROI)
- Vinnie Pasquantino has hit the Singles Over in 21 of his last 29 games (+12.00 Units / 36% ROI)
- Bobby Witt Jr. has hit the Runs Over in 19 of his last 24 games (+11.75 Units / 32% ROI)
- Seth Lugo has hit the Earned Runs Under in 17 of his last 22 games (+11.15 Units / 39% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Tigers players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Tigers Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Colt Keith has hit the Home Runs Over in 6 of his last 21 games (+27.70 Units / 132% ROI)
- Colt Keith has hit the Total Bases Under in 30 of his last 45 games (+8.95 Units / 13% ROI)
- Zach McKinstry has hit the Singles Under in 10 of his last 11 games (+8.50 Units / 52% ROI)
- Colt Keith has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 22 games (+8.15 Units / 19% ROI)
- Matt Vierling has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 15 of his last 23 games at home (+7.55 Units / 29% ROI)
Royals Best Bets Today:
- The Kansas City Royals have covered the Run Line in 61 of their last 105 games (+10.24 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Under in 25 of their last 40 games (+9.15 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 17 of their last 26 games (+6.45 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Moneyline in 7 of their last 9 away games (+5.25 Units / 41% ROI)
Tigers Best Bets Today:
- The Detroit Tigers have hit the Game Total Over in 53 of their last 92 games (+13.10 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Detroit Tigers have covered the Run Line in 17 of their last 22 games (+11.95 Units / 37% ROI)
- The Detroit Tigers have hit the Moneyline in 14 of their last 24 games (+5.60 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Detroit Tigers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 17 of their last 27 games (+5.30 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Detroit Tigers have hit the Team Total Over in 16 of their last 27 games (+5.25 Units / 17% ROI)
Royals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Royals are 62-47 against the Run Line (+6.64 Units / 4.5% ROI).
- 60-49 when betting on the Moneyline for +8.5 Units / 6.16% ROI
- 46-59 when betting on the total runs Over for -18.6 Units / -15.74% ROI
- 59-46 when betting on the total runs Under for +7.95 Units / 6.65% ROI
Tigers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Tigers are 55-54 against the Run Line (-5.2 Units / -3.49% ROI).
- 52-57 when betting on the Moneyline for -7.55 Units / -6.07% ROI
- 58-44 when betting on the total runs Over for +9.2 Units / 7.88% ROI
- 44-58 when betting on the total runs Under for -19.9 Units / -17.07% ROI
Tigers vs Royals Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Salvador Perez (KC) | 0.5 +300 | 0.5 -375 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. (KC) | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -500 |
| Hunter Renfroe (KC) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| MJ Melendez (KC) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -700 |
| Paul DeJong (KC) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
Tigers vs Royals Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Colt Keith (DET) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| MJ Melendez (KC) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +160 |
| Freddy Fermin (KC) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Hunter Renfroe (KC) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +155 |
| Wenceel Perez (DET) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
Tigers vs Royals RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Salvador Perez (KC) | 0.5 +110 | 0.5 -140 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. (KC) | 0.5 +120 | 0.5 -155 |
| Vinnie Pasquantino (KC) | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -160 |
| Hunter Renfroe (KC) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| MJ Melendez (KC) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
Tigers vs Royals Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Seth Lugo (KC) | 4.5 -175 | 4.5 +130 |
| Keider Montero (DET) | 3.5 -155 | 3.5 +115 |
Royals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of just 18% (31/169) against Seth Lugo on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 4th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — fifth Percentile.
Seth Lugo has walked 9 of 198 batters (4%) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — 9th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — 87th Percentile.
12 of Seth Lugo’s breaking pitch strikeouts are backdoor this season — tied for 6th most among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: nan — 92nd Percentile.
Seth Lugo has thrown his curveball 34% of the time (822/2,401) vs left-handed batters since last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 107 total CB; League Avg: 17% — 98th Percentile.
Tigers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Keider Montero has allowed at least one HR in each of his last three games dating back to July 13rd — Griffin Canning has the longest active streak at 9.
Royals Keys to the Game vs. the Tigers
The Royals are just 46-66 (.411) vs bottom 10 scoring offenses since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .568.
The Royals are just 13-69 (.159) when allowing 2 or more home runs since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .305.
The Royals are just 25-42 (.373) vs bottom 10 scoring offenses since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .560.
The Royals are just 28-55 (.337) after a road win since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .485.
Tigers Keys to the Game vs. the Royals
The Tigers are just 9-16 (.360) after a home win this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .519.
The Tigers are just 27-39 (.409) after a home win since the 2023 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .528.
The Tigers are 24-4 (.857) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .704.
The Tigers are just 36-8 (.818) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .895.
Royals Hitting Stats & Trends
Royals hitters have just 729 strikeouts in 4,003 PA’s (18%) this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Royals hitters have an OBP of just .283 (4,851 PA’s) on the road since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .313.
Royals hitters have just 153 strikeouts in 878 PA’s (17%) against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Royals won just 46% of games in which they have scored in at least three different innings on the road in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 71%.
Tigers Hitting Stats & Trends
team hitters – home
Royals Pitching Stats & Trends
Royals pitchers have an ERA of 2.72 (281.0 IP) against division opponents this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.11.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 24% against Royals pitchers since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Royals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 18% in close and late situations this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Royals pitchers this season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Tigers Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of 27% against Tigers pitchers this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Tigers pitchers have walked 287 of 4,041 batters (7%) this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Tigers pitchers have walked 324 of 3,839 batters (8%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the 2022 season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Tigers pitchers have won only 16% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
Tigers vs. Royals Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Reese Olson (Detroit Tigers): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Alex Lange (Detroit Tigers): Lat, 60-Day IL
- Matt Manning (Detroit Tigers): Lat, 7-Day IL
- Parker Meadows (Detroit Tigers): Hamstring, 10-Day IL
- Matthew Boyd (Detroit Tigers): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Sawyer Gipson-Long (Detroit Tigers): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Eddys Leonard (Detroit Tigers): Undisclosed, 7-Day IL
- Brendan White (Detroit Tigers): Elbow, 7-Day IL
- Casey Mize (Detroit Tigers): Hamstring, 15-Day IL
- Kerry Carpenter (Detroit Tigers): Back, 60-Day IL
- MJ Melendez (Kansas City Royals): Ankle, 10-Day IL
- Kyle Wright (Kansas City Royals): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Josh Taylor (Kansas City Royals): Biceps, 60-Day IL
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