- The Royals are -105 favorites vs the Twins
- Royals vs Twins Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Royals / Twins TV Channel: BSNO | BSKC
The Kansas City Royals (+110) visit Target Field to take on the Minnesota Twins (-130) on Tuesday, August 13, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 7:40pm EDT in Minneapolis, MN.
This season, the Royals are 65-54 against the spread (ATS), while the Twins are 58-60 ATS.
Royals vs Twins Starting Pitchers Today:
- Royals starting pitcher: Seth Lugo 13-6, 2.71 ERA
- Twins starting pitcher: Louie Varland 0-4, 6.39 ERA
Royals vs. Twins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Royals | +1.5 -200 | O 8.5 +100 | +110 |
| Twins | -1.5 +165 | U 8.5 -120 | -130 |
Royals vs Twins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Royals will win Tuesday‘s MLB game with 51.0% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Royals players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Royals Player Prop Bets Today:
- Vinnie Pasquantino has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 11 games (+19.60 Units / 178% ROI)
- Vinnie Pasquantino has hit the RBIs Over in 25 of his last 40 games (+18.70 Units / 47% ROI)
- Bobby Witt Jr. has hit the Runs Over in 25 of his last 34 games (+12.20 Units / 25% ROI)
- Seth Lugo has hit the Earned Runs Under in 18 of his last 24 games (+10.70 Units / 34% ROI)
- Kyle Isbel has hit the Hits Under in 16 of his last 26 games (+10.40 Units / 40% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Twins Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Christian Vazquez has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 17 games (+22.50 Units / 132% ROI)
- Matt Wallner has hit the Total Bases Over in 18 of his last 21 games (+14.80 Units / 57% ROI)
- Matt Wallner has hit the Hits Over in 18 of his last 21 games (+14.80 Units / 57% ROI)
- Matt Wallner has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 16 of his last 21 games (+11.15 Units / 43% ROI)
- Matt Wallner has hit the RBIs Over in 7 of his last 10 games (+9.25 Units / 93% ROI)
Royals Best Bets Today:
- The Kansas City Royals have covered the Run Line in 65 of their last 115 games (+8.89 Units / 6% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Over in 12 of their last 15 games (+8.80 Units / 54% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 23 of their last 36 games (+8.55 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Moneyline in 10 of their last 14 away games (+6.15 Units / 33% ROI)
Twins Best Bets Today:
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Team Total Over in 36 of their last 53 games at home (+15.15 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 33 of their last 52 games (+14.60 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the Run Line in 25 of their last 42 games (+10.20 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Moneyline in 59 of their last 98 games (+8.95 Units / 6% ROI)
Royals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Royals are 66-53 against the Run Line (+5.29 Units / 3.32% ROI).
- 65-54 when betting on the Moneyline for +7.65 Units / 5.09% ROI
- 54-61 when betting on the total runs Over for -12.75 Units / -9.87% ROI
- 61-54 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.2 Units / 0.92% ROI
Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Twins are 58-60 against the Run Line (-3.5 Units / -2.35% ROI).
- 66-52 when betting on the Moneyline for +0 Units / 0% ROI
- 61-51 when betting on the total runs Over for +5.2 Units / 4.05% ROI
- 51-61 when betting on the total runs Under for -16.4 Units / -12.7% ROI
Twins vs Royals Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Byron Buxton (MIN) | 0.5 +320 | 0.5 -400 |
| Royce Lewis (MIN) | 0.5 +340 | 0.5 -450 |
| Matt Wallner (MIN) | 0.5 +350 | 0.5 -450 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. (KC) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Salvador Perez (KC) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
Twins vs Royals Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Vinnie Pasquantino (KC) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Willi Castro (MIN) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Salvador Perez (KC) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Byron Buxton (MIN) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Maikel Garcia (KC) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
Twins vs Royals RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Byron Buxton (MIN) | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -165 |
| Royce Lewis (MIN) | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -165 |
| Salvador Perez (KC) | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -165 |
| Vinnie Pasquantino (KC) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -175 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. (KC) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
Twins vs Royals Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Seth Lugo (KC) | 5.5 +115 | 5.5 -150 |
Royals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting just .256 (20-for-78) against Seth Lugo on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 6th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .332 — 92nd Percentile.
Seth Lugo has a strikeout rate of just 20% (19 SO in 94 PAs) in PAs ending on elevated fastballs this season — 9th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 28% — 15th Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 17% (32/185) against Seth Lugo on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — third Percentile.
Seth Lugo has allowed an OPS of just .573 (293 PA’s) against right-handed batters this season — 10th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .674 — 85th Percentile.
Twins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Hitters have swung at 61% of Louie Varland’s pitches (52/85) this month (1 games) — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 3 total IP; League Avg: 48% — 100th Percentile.
The average home run distance against Louie Varland in the 2023 season was 413.0 feet — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 399.8
Louie Varland allowed an average Exit Velocity of 91.0 MPH (192 batted balls) in the 2023 season — tied for 11th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 89.2 — seventh Percentile.
Louie Varland has not walked any of the 24 batters that he has faced this month (1 games) — tied for best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 3 total IP; League Avg: 8% — 100th Percentile.
Royals Keys to the Game vs. the Twins
The Royals are 24-35 (.407) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .271.
The Royals are just 49-21 (.700) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .798.
The Royals are just 30-56 (.349) after a road win since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .487.
The Royals are just 46-85 (.351) after a road loss since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .463.
Twins Keys to the Game vs. the Royals
The Twins are 124-1 (.992) when leading entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .947.
The Twins are 11-6 (.647) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Twins are 192-4 (.980) when leading entering the 9th inning since the 2022 season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .950.
The Twins are 26-9 (.743) when they’ve scored in the first inning this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .641.
Royals Hitting Stats & Trends
Royals hitters have an OBP of just .284 (5,051 PA’s) on the road since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .314.
The Royals are batting .184 on pitches out of the zone this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .153.
The Royals won just 46% of games in which they have scored in at least three different innings on the road in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 71%.
The Royals won only 28% of their road games in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Twins Hitting Stats & Trends
Twins hitters have an OPS of .775 (3,379 PA’s) in innings 7-9 since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .701.
Twins hitters have an OPS of .796 (2,180 PA’s) at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .723.
Twins hitters have an OPS of .782 (1,431 PA’s) in innings 7-9 this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .689.
The Twins have scored 1.87 runs per game (221/118) in late innings this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 1.42.
Royals Pitching Stats & Trends
Royals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% with runners in scoring position since the 2022 season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The average home run distance against the Royals pitchers since last season is 405.1 feet — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 399.0
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Royals pitchers this season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Royals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% since the 2022 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Twins Pitching Stats & Trends
Twins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Twins pitchers have walked 305 of 4,360 batters (7%) this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Twins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 28% when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Twins pitchers have walked 163 of 2,504 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Twins vs. Royals Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Anthony DeSclafani (Minnesota Twins): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Byron Buxton (Minnesota Twins): Forearm, Day-To-Day
- Chris Paddack (Minnesota Twins): Forearm, 15-Day IL
- Royce Lewis (Minnesota Twins): Groin, 10-Day IL
- Jovani Moran (Minnesota Twins): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Brent Headrick (Minnesota Twins): Forearm, 60-Day IL
- Alex Kirilloff (Minnesota Twins): Back, 10-Day IL
- Jose Miranda (Minnesota Twins): Back, 10-Day IL
- Kyle Farmer (Minnesota Twins): Shoulder, 10-Day IL
- Kody Funderburk (Minnesota Twins): Oblique, 15-Day IL
- Justin Topa (Minnesota Twins): Knee, 60-Day IL
- Jose De Leon (Minnesota Twins): Elbow, Out
- MJ Melendez (Kansas City Royals): Ankle, 10-Day IL
- Kyle Wright (Kansas City Royals): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Josh Taylor (Kansas City Royals): Biceps, 60-Day IL
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