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The Detroit Tigers () visit Progressive Field to take on the Cleveland Guardians () on Wednesday, July 24, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Cleveland, OH.
This season, the Tigers are 50-52 against the spread (ATS), while the Guardians are 49-51 ATS.
Tigers vs Guardians Starting Pitchers Today:
- Tigers starting pitcher: Jack Flaherty 7-5, 3.16 ERA
- Guardians starting pitcher: Tanner Bibee 8-4, 3.61 ERA
Tigers vs. Guardians Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Tigers | O | ||
| Guardians | U |
Tigers vs Guardians Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Guardians will win Wednesday‘s MLB game with 55.8% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Tigers players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Tigers Player Prop Bets Today:
- Colt Keith has hit the Home Runs Over in 9 of his last 44 games (+26.90 Units / 61% ROI)
- Gio Urshela has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 20 of his last 26 games (+14.60 Units / 52% ROI)
- Gio Urshela has hit the Singles Under in 16 of his last 26 games (+11.50 Units / 44% ROI)
- Gio Urshela has hit the Runs Under in 24 of his last 30 games (+11.15 Units / 17% ROI)
- Jack Flaherty has hit the Strikeouts Over in 14 of his last 17 games (+10.95 Units / 54% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Guardians Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Steven Kwan has hit the Home Runs Over in 6 of his last 16 games at home (+59.50 Units / 372% ROI)
- Andres Gimenez has hit the Runs Under in 19 of his last 23 games (+11.95 Units / 29% ROI)
- Daniel Schneemann has hit the Singles Under in 19 of his last 24 games (+11.25 Units / 32% ROI)
- Josh Naylor has hit the Hits Under in 14 of his last 23 games at home (+10.80 Units / 33% ROI)
- Steven Kwan has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 16 of his last 23 games (+10.15 Units / 39% ROI)
Tigers Best Bets Today:
- The Detroit Tigers have hit the Game Total Over in 50 of their last 85 games (+14.40 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Detroit Tigers have covered the Run Line in 14 of their last 15 games (+14.20 Units / 66% ROI)
- The Detroit Tigers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 15 of their last 20 games (+9.30 Units / 37% ROI)
- The Detroit Tigers have hit the Moneyline in 12 of their last 17 games (+8.35 Units / 45% ROI)
- The Detroit Tigers have hit the Team Total Over in 14 of their last 20 games (+8.00 Units / 35% ROI)
Guardians Best Bets Today:
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 30 of their last 41 games at home (+13.70 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Team Total Over in 27 of their last 41 games at home (+11.85 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 58 of their last 100 games (+11.40 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 25 of their last 41 games at home (+8.60 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Over in 26 of their last 45 games at home (+8.35 Units / 17% ROI)
Tigers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Tigers are 52-50 against the Run Line (-2.95 Units / -2.13% ROI).
- 50-52 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.8 Units / -4.09% ROI
- 55-40 when betting on the total runs Over for +10.5 Units / 9.62% ROI
- 40-55 when betting on the total runs Under for -20.7 Units / -19.02% ROI
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Guardians are 49-51 against the Run Line (+1 Units / 0.83% ROI).
- 60-40 when betting on the Moneyline for +12.67 Units / 9.68% ROI
- 49-45 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.75 Units / -0.68% ROI
- 45-49 when betting on the total runs Under for -8.75 Units / -8% ROI
Guardians vs Tigers Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Matt Vierling (DET) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Riley Greene (DET) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
| Carson Kelly (DET) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
| Justyn-Henry Malloy (DET) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
| Colt Keith (DET) | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1000 |
Guardians vs Tigers Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Gio Urshela (DET) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Riley Greene (DET) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Mark Canha (DET) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Carson Kelly (DET) | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
| Wenceel Perez (DET) | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +135 |
Guardians vs Tigers RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Riley Greene (DET) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -200 |
| Matt Vierling (DET) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Carson Kelly (DET) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Colt Keith (DET) | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
| Mark Canha (DET) | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
Guardians vs Tigers Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Xzavion Curry (CLE) | 3.5 +125 | 3.5 -160 |
Tigers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Jack Flaherty has allowed an OBP of just .056 (18 PA’s) when going through the lineup the first time in a game over the last 14 days — best among AL Starters over the last two weeks; League Avg: .300 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of 33% (249/745) against Jack Flaherty this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — 100th Percentile.
Jack Flaherty has walked 3 of 153 batters (2%) when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — 98th Percentile.
Jack Flaherty has allowed an OBP of just .222 (153 PA’s) when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — tied for 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .292 — 97th Percentile.
Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Tanner Bibee has walked 4 of 20 right-handed batters (20%) over the last 14 days — highest among AL Starters over the last two weeks; League Avg: 7% — second Percentile.
The average home run distance against Tanner Bibee in the 2023 season was 379.5 feet — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 399.3
Opponents are hitting .434 against Tanner Bibee on the first pitch of at-bats this season — sixth worst among starting pitchers with at least 39 total IP– fifth Percentile. Opponents batted just .268 (15-for-56) against him on the first pitch of at-bats last season — eighth best among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP– 94th Percentile.
Opposing hitters have a groundball rate of just 18% (8/44) against Tanner Bibee when he’s behind in the count this season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 39 total IP; League Avg: 39% — first Percentile.
Tigers Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians
The Tigers are 50-21 (.704) when they’ve scored in the first inning since the 2023 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .622.
The Tigers are 11-35 (.239) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .142.
The Tigers are just 40-4 (.909) when leading entering the 9th inning this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .944.
The Tigers are 23-3 (.885) when they’ve had 10 or more hits this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .758.
Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Tigers
The Guardians are 18-16 (.529) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .300.
The Guardians are 10-16 (.385) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .242.
The Guardians are 44-117 (.273) when allowing 5 or more runs since the 2022 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .206.
The Guardians are just 2-34 (.056) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .105.
Tigers Hitting Stats & Trends
The Tigers are batting just .307 on the first pitch of at-bats since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .340.
The Tigers are batting just .277 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .332.
Tigers hitters have an OBP of just .292 (11,986 PA’s) against RHP since the 2022 season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .314.
The Tigers have answered-back in just 20% of innings after an opponent scores in late innings since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends
Guardians hitters have just 2,081 strikeouts in 11,381 PA’s (18%) against RHP since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Guardians hitters have put just 34% of balls in play to the left side of the field since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 38%.
Guardians hitters have just 3,001 strikeouts in 15,967 PA’s (19%) since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Guardians hitters are slugging just .517 on the first pitch of at-bats since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .573.
Tigers Pitching Stats & Trends
Tigers pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 35% with two-strikes over the last 14 days — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Tigers pitchers have won only 17% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
Tigers pitchers have walked 272 of 3,783 batters (7%) this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Tigers pitchers have won only 15% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .196 against Guardians pitchers with runners on base this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .259.
Guardians pitchers have won 46% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
The Guardians have allowed 0.77 runs per game (77/100) in late innings this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 1.28.
Guardians pitchers have won 53% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
Guardians vs. Tigers Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Luis Ortiz (Cleveland Guardians): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Sam Hentges (Cleveland Guardians): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Shane Bieber (Cleveland Guardians): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Trevor Stephan (Cleveland Guardians): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- James Karinchak (Cleveland Guardians): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Reese Olson (Detroit Tigers): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Alex Lange (Detroit Tigers): Lat, 60-Day IL
- Matt Manning (Detroit Tigers): Lat, 7-Day IL
- Parker Meadows (Detroit Tigers): Hamstring, 10-Day IL
- Matthew Boyd (Detroit Tigers): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Sawyer Gipson-Long (Detroit Tigers): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Eddys Leonard (Detroit Tigers): Undisclosed, 7-Day IL
- Brendan White (Detroit Tigers): Elbow, 7-Day IL
- Casey Mize (Detroit Tigers): Hamstring, 15-Day IL
- Kerry Carpenter (Detroit Tigers): Back, 60-Day IL
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