- The Royals are -150 favorites vs the Tigers
- Tigers vs Royals Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Tigers / Royals TV Channel: BSDT | BSKC
The Detroit Tigers (+125) visit Ewing M. Kauffman Stadium to take on the Kansas City Royals (-150) on Monday, September 16, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 7:40pm EDT in Kansas City, MO.
This season, the Tigers are 77-73 against the spread (ATS), while the Royals are 85-65 ATS.
Tigers vs Royals Starting Pitchers Today:
- Tigers starting pitcher: Casey Mize 2-6, 4.46 ERA
- Royals starting pitcher: Seth Lugo 16-8, 2.94 ERA
Tigers vs. Royals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Tigers | +1.5 -175 | O 8.5 -120 | +125 |
| Royals | -1.5 +145 | U 8.5 +100 | -150 |
Tigers vs Royals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Royals will win Monday‘s MLB game with 51.6% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Tigers players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Tigers Player Prop Bets Today:
- Parker Meadows has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 10 games (+16.60 Units / 166% ROI)
- Colt Keith has hit the Hits Over in his last 14 away games (+15.85 Units / 58% ROI)
- Colt Keith has hit the Singles Over in 18 of his last 22 away games (+12.90 Units / 47% ROI)
- Colt Keith has hit the Total Bases Over in 13 of his last 18 away games (+10.10 Units / 45% ROI)
- Parker Meadows has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 15 of his last 20 away games (+9.65 Units / 37% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Royals players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Royals Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Salvador Perez has hit the Runs Under in 34 of his last 45 games (+16.85 Units / 25% ROI)
- Bobby Witt Jr. has hit the Home Runs Over in 10 of his last 35 games (+13.85 Units / 40% ROI)
- Bobby Witt Jr. has hit the Hits Under in 23 of his last 28 games (+13.50 Units / 25% ROI)
- Seth Lugo has hit the Earned Runs Under in 22 of his last 30 games (+12.75 Units / 34% ROI)
- Bobby Witt Jr. has hit the Singles Under in 16 of his last 24 games (+10.15 Units / 42% ROI)
Tigers Best Bets Today:
- The Detroit Tigers have covered the Run Line in 42 of their last 63 games (+19.65 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Detroit Tigers have hit the Moneyline in 39 of their last 65 games (+14.60 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Detroit Tigers have hit the Team Total Over in 23 of their last 34 away games (+11.35 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Detroit Tigers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 18 of their last 34 away games (+10.20 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Detroit Tigers have hit the Game Total Under in 24 of their last 38 games (+9.75 Units / 23% ROI)
Royals Best Bets Today:
- The Kansas City Royals have covered the Run Line in 43 of their last 73 games at home (+14.64 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Moneyline in 45 of their last 73 games at home (+11.85 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 38 of their last 73 games at home (+8.55 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Under in 11 of their last 15 games (+7.65 Units / 46% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 39 of their last 67 games (+7.34 Units / 9% ROI)
Tigers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Tigers are 80-70 against the Run Line (+2.5 Units / 1.24% ROI).
- 77-73 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.45 Units / 0.82% ROI
- 73-69 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.75 Units / -1.7% ROI
- 69-73 when betting on the total runs Under for -11.3 Units / -6.97% ROI
Royals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Royals are 85-65 against the Run Line (+10.88 Units / 5.36% ROI).
- 82-68 when betting on the Moneyline for +10.25 Units / 5.47% ROI
- 66-78 when betting on the total runs Over for -19.3 Units / -11.85% ROI
- 78-66 when betting on the total runs Under for +4.75 Units / 2.88% ROI
Royals vs Tigers Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Salvador Perez (KC) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. (KC) | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
| MJ Melendez (KC) | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -900 |
| Michael Massey (KC) | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Spencer Torkelson (DET) | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -900 |
Royals vs Tigers Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Colt Keith (DET) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Salvador Perez (KC) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Freddy Fermin (KC) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Riley Greene (DET) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Parker Meadows (DET) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
Royals vs Tigers RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Salvador Perez (KC) | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -165 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. (KC) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
| Michael Massey (KC) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -190 |
| MJ Melendez (KC) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Matt Vierling (DET) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
Royals vs Tigers Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Seth Lugo (KC) | 5.5 -110 | 5.5 -115 |
Tigers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Casey Mize has a strikeout rate of just 15% (26 SO in 172 PAs) when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — 5th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 59 total IP; League Avg: 24% — third Percentile.
Casey Mize has walked 6 of 167 batters (4%) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — 9th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 59 total IP; League Avg: 7% — 93rd Percentile.
Casey Mize has allowed an OBP of .430 (100 PA’s) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 59 total IP; League Avg: .301 — first Percentile.
Opponents have a swing rate of 62% (146/235) against Casey Mize on inside fastballs this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 59 total IP; League Avg: 49% — 100th Percentile.
Royals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of just 17% (42/240) against Seth Lugo on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — third Percentile.
Seth Lugo has walked 15 of 368 right-handed batters (4%) this season — 8th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 6% — 87th Percentile.
Seth Lugo has allowed an OBP of just .251 (366 PA’s) against right-handed batters this season — 6th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .289 — 90th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .260 (27-for-104) against Seth Lugo when he’s behind in the count this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .334 — 98th Percentile.
Tigers Keys to the Game vs. the Royals
The Tigers are 36-4 (.900) when they’ve had 10 or more hits this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .752.
The Tigers are 40-24 (.625) after a win as favorites since the 2022 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .584.
The Tigers are 71-15 (.826) when they’ve had 10 or more hits since the 2023 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .739.
The Tigers are 26-1 (.963) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .806.
Royals Keys to the Game vs. the Tigers
The Royals are just 24-103 (.189) when their opponents score in the first inning since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .362.
The Royals are just 46-66 (.411) vs bottom 10 scoring offenses since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .568.
The Royals are just 25-42 (.373) vs bottom 10 scoring offenses since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .560.
The Royals are just 14-76 (.156) when allowing 2 or more home runs since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .302.
Tigers Hitting Stats & Trends
Tigers hitters have an OBP of just .293 (13,392 PA’s) against RHP since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .314.
The Tigers are batting just .312 on the first pitch of at-bats since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .338.
Tigers hitters are slugging just .366 against RHP since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .403.
Tigers hitters have an OBP of just .296 (17,519 PA’s) since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .315.
Royals Hitting Stats & Trends
Royals hitters have just 251 strikeouts in 1,327 PA’s (19%) against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Royals hitters are slugging .252 on pitches out of the zone this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .207.
Royals hitters have drawn 188 walks in 2,853 PA’s (7%) against LHP since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Royals won only 28% of their road games in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Tigers Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 52% against Tigers pitchers over the last 14 days — highest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 51% against Tigers pitchers this month (13 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Tigers pitchers have walked 385 of 5,528 batters (7%) this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Tigers pitchers have won only 16% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
Royals Pitching Stats & Trends
Royals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% in close and late situations this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
The average home run distance against the Royals pitchers since last season is 403.7 feet — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 398.4
Royals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% since the 2022 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Royals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 40% with two-strikes since the 2022 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Royals vs. Tigers Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Kansas City Royals – No Injuries Reported
- Detroit Tigers – No Injuries Reported
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