- The Blue Jays are -120 favorites vs the Twins
- Twins vs Blue Jays Over / Under today: 7.5 Runs
- Twins / Blue Jays TV Channel: BSNO | RSN1
The Minnesota Twins (-105) visit Rogers Centre to take on the Toronto Blue Jays (-115) on Friday, May 10, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 7:07pm EDT in Toronto, ON.
This season, the Twins are 22-15 against the spread (ATS), while the Blue Jays are 16-21 ATS.
Twins vs Blue Jays Starting Pitchers Today:
- Twins starting pitcher: Joe Ryan 1-2, 3.57 ERA
- Blue Jays starting pitcher: Yusei Kikuchi 2-2, 2.73 ERA
Twins vs. Blue Jays Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Twins | -1.5 +165 | O 7.5 -115 | -105 |
| Blue Jays | +1.5 -200 | U 7.5 -105 | -115 |
Twins vs Blue Jays Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Twins will win Friday‘s MLB game with 51.0% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Twins Player Prop Bets Today:
- Ryan Jeffers has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 4 games (+13.10 Units / 328% ROI)
- Max Kepler has hit the Hits Over in 12 of his last 13 games (+12.95 Units / 49% ROI)
- Willi Castro has hit the Total Bases Over in 16 of his last 21 games (+12.40 Units / 43% ROI)
- Alex Kirilloff has hit the Singles Under in 17 of his last 23 games (+10.75 Units / 41% ROI)
- Alex Kirilloff has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 15 of his last 20 games (+10.00 Units / 44% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Blue Jays players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Blue Jays Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- George Springer has hit the RBIs Under in 21 of his last 23 games (+16.85 Units / 31% ROI)
- George Springer has hit the Runs Under in 24 of his last 31 games (+16.00 Units / 44% ROI)
- Bo Bichette has hit the Hits Under in 24 of his last 31 games (+13.55 Units / 22% ROI)
- Bo Bichette has hit the Total Bases Under in his last 13 games (+13.00 Units / 76% ROI)
- George Springer has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 23 of his last 33 games (+12.95 Units / 34% ROI)
Twins Best Bets Today:
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the Run Line in 31 of their last 50 games (+14.40 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 47 of their last 78 games (+13.95 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Team Total Over in 48 of their last 77 games (+13.50 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 17 of their last 26 games (+6.64 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 14 of their last 22 away games (+5.41 Units / 21% ROI)
Blue Jays Best Bets Today:
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Team Total Under in 40 of their last 66 games at home (+12.34 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Under in 61 of their last 111 games (+11.50 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 18 of their last 26 games (+9.66 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 4 of their last 9 games at home (+1.85 Units / 15% ROI)
Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Twins are 20-17 against the Run Line (+2.85 Units / 5.93% ROI).
- 22-15 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.65 Units / 5.28% ROI
- 19-15 when betting on the total runs Over for +2.6 Units / 6.54% ROI
- 15-19 when betting on the total runs Under for -5.9 Units / -14.92% ROI
Blue Jays Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Blue Jays are 16-21 against the Run Line (-9.75 Units / -19.29% ROI).
- 17-20 when betting on the Moneyline for -6.1 Units / -13.06% ROI
- 16-21 when betting on the total runs Over for -7.1 Units / -17.51% ROI
- 21-16 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.25 Units / 7.96% ROI
Blue Jays vs Twins Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Danny Jansen (TOR) | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -500 |
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Ryan Jeffers (MIN) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| Justin Turner (TOR) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -700 |
| Jose Miranda (MIN) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
Blue Jays vs Twins Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Ryan Jeffers (MIN) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Jose Miranda (MIN) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Bo Bichette (TOR) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| George Springer (TOR) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Manuel Margot (MIN) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
Blue Jays vs Twins RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Justin Turner (TOR) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -225 |
| Danny Jansen (TOR) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Jose Miranda (MIN) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Carlos Correa (MIN) | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
Blue Jays vs Twins Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Joe Ryan (MIN) | 5.5 -140 | 5.5 +105 |
| Yusei Kikuchi (TOR) | 5.5 -130 | 5.5 +100 |
Twins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Left-handed hitters have a chase rate of 37% (55/150) against Joe Ryan this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — 100th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 29% (15/51) against Joe Ryan this season — 2nd lowest among among AL Starters; League Avg: 42% — fourth Percentile.
Joe Ryan has a strike rate of 70% (1,116/1,582) vs left-handed batters since last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 78 total IP; League Avg: 63% — 98th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 29% (15/51) against Joe Ryan this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — first Percentile.
Blue Jays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Yusei Kikuchi has thrown his curveball 32% of the time (143/444) in non-two strike counts this season — highest among among AL Starters; League Avg: 14% — 100th Percentile.
Yusei Kikuchi has thrown his curveball 32% of the time (39/121) when he’s behind in the count this season — highest among among AL Starters; League Avg: 9% — 100th Percentile.
4 of Yusei Kikuchi’s breaking pitch strikeouts are backdoor on breaking pitches this season — tied for 3rd most among among AL Starters; League Avg: nan — 94th Percentile.
Yusei Kikuchi has thrown his curveball 32% of the time (39/121) when he’s behind in the count this season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 9% — 96th Percentile.
Twins Keys to the Game vs. the Blue Jays
The Twins are just 16-29 (.356) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Twins are 21-61 (.256) when trailing entering the 7th inning since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .143.
The Twins are 58-13 (.817) when they’ve had 10 or more hits since the 2023 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .737.
The Twins are 156-4 (.975) when leading entering the 9th inning since the 2022 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .950.
Blue Jays Keys to the Game vs. the Twins
The Blue Jays are 23-17 (.575) after a loss as underdogs since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .411.
The Blue Jays are just 10-69 (.127) when allowing 5 or more runs since the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .213.
The Blue Jays are 144-15 (.906) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .868.
The Blue Jays are 21-11 (.656) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2023 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Twins Hitting Stats & Trends
Twins hitters have 96 extra-base hits out of 216 total hits (44%) against RHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 34%.
Twins hitters have an OPS of .829 (467 PA’s) in innings 7-9 this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .677.
The Twins are batting just .151 with two-strikes since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .171.
Twins hitters have 494 extra-base hits out of 1,226 total hits (40%) against RHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Blue Jays Hitting Stats & Trends
Blue Jays hitters have just 573 strikeouts in 2,970 PA’s (19%) against LHP since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Blue Jays hitters have an OBP of .335 (2,970 PA’s) against LHP since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .319.
Blue Jays hitters have just 327 strikeouts in 1,731 PA’s (19%) against LHP since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Blue Jays are batting .269 against LHP since last season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .252.
Twins Pitching Stats & Trends
Twins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 27% this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Twins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 33% over the past seven days (7 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Twins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 28% versus hitters not batting 3-4-5 in the order this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Twins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 47% with two-strikes this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Blue Jays Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of just 22% against Blue Jays pitchers this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Blue Jays pitchers have allowed a run just 25% of the time after an opposing score since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 32%.
In games when their opponents have scored three or more runs in an inning, the Blue Jays have won just just 0% of the time this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Blue Jays pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 36% with two-strikes over the last 14 days — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Blue Jays vs. Twins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Erik Swanson (Toronto Blue Jays): Forearm, 15-Day IL
- Jordan Romano (Toronto Blue Jays): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Bo Bichette (Toronto Blue Jays): Neck, Day-To-Day
- Danny Jansen (Toronto Blue Jays): Wrist, 10-Day IL
- Alek Manoah (Toronto Blue Jays): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Zack Weiss (Minnesota Twins): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Jhoan Duran (Minnesota Twins): Oblique, 15-Day IL
- Anthony DeSclafani (Minnesota Twins): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Matt Canterino (Minnesota Twins): Shoulder, 7-Day IL
- Trevor Larnach (Minnesota Twins): Toe, 7-Day IL
- Royce Lewis (Minnesota Twins): Quadriceps, 10-Day IL
- Max Kepler (Minnesota Twins): Leg, Day-To-Day
- Jovani Moran (Minnesota Twins): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Josh Staumont (Minnesota Twins): Calf, 15-Day IL
- Caleb Thielbar (Minnesota Twins): Hamstring, 15-Day IL
- Justin Topa (Minnesota Twins): Kneecap, 15-Day IL
- Jose De Leon (Minnesota Twins): Elbow, Out
- Josh Winder (Minnesota Twins): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
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