- The Blue Jays are -160 favorites vs the Twins
- Twins vs Blue Jays Over / Under today: 7.5 Runs
- Twins / Blue Jays TV Channel: BSNO | RSN1
The Minnesota Twins (+125) visit Rogers Centre to take on the Toronto Blue Jays (-150) on Saturday, May 11, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 3:07pm EDT in Toronto, ON.
This season, the Twins are 23-15 against the spread (ATS), while the Blue Jays are 16-22 ATS.
Twins vs Blue Jays Starting Pitchers Today:
- Twins starting pitcher: Simeon Woods Richardson 1-0, 1.77 ERA
- Blue Jays starting pitcher: Kevin Gausman 2-3, 3.75 ERA
Twins vs. Blue Jays Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Twins | +1.5 -165 | O 7.5 -105 | +125 |
| Blue Jays | -1.5 +135 | U 7.5 -115 | -150 |
Twins vs Blue Jays Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Blue Jays will win Saturday‘s MLB game with 53.6% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Twins Player Prop Bets Today:
- Carlos Santana has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 7 away games (+19.00 Units / 271% ROI)
- Max Kepler has hit the Hits Over in 12 of his last 13 games (+12.95 Units / 49% ROI)
- Willi Castro has hit the Total Bases Over in 16 of his last 22 games (+11.40 Units / 38% ROI)
- Alex Kirilloff has hit the Singles Under in 17 of his last 23 games (+10.75 Units / 41% ROI)
- Alex Kirilloff has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 15 of his last 20 games (+10.00 Units / 44% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Blue Jays players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Blue Jays Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- George Springer has hit the RBIs Under in 21 of his last 23 games (+16.85 Units / 31% ROI)
- George Springer has hit the Runs Under in 24 of his last 31 games (+16.00 Units / 44% ROI)
- George Springer has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 23 of his last 33 games (+12.95 Units / 34% ROI)
- George Springer has hit the Hits Under in 16 of his last 19 games (+12.80 Units / 33% ROI)
- George Springer has hit the Total Bases Under in 16 of his last 19 games (+12.00 Units / 44% ROI)
Twins Best Bets Today:
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the Run Line in 31 of their last 50 games (+14.40 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 47 of their last 78 games (+13.95 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Team Total Over in 48 of their last 77 games (+13.50 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 17 of their last 26 games (+6.64 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 14 of their last 22 away games (+5.41 Units / 21% ROI)
Blue Jays Best Bets Today:
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Team Total Under in 40 of their last 66 games at home (+12.34 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Under in 61 of their last 111 games (+11.50 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 18 of their last 26 games (+9.66 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 4 of their last 9 games at home (+1.85 Units / 15% ROI)
Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Twins are 21-17 against the Run Line (+3.85 Units / 7.67% ROI).
- 23-15 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.65 Units / 7.13% ROI
- 19-16 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.45 Units / 3.55% ROI
- 16-19 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.9 Units / -12.07% ROI
Blue Jays Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Blue Jays are 16-22 against the Run Line (-10.75 Units / -20.85% ROI).
- 17-21 when betting on the Moneyline for -7.25 Units / -15.15% ROI
- 16-22 when betting on the total runs Over for -8.25 Units / -19.78% ROI
- 22-16 when betting on the total runs Under for +4.25 Units / 10.14% ROI
Blue Jays vs Twins Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Danny Jansen (TOR) | 0.5 +290 | 0.5 -375 |
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR) | 0.5 +350 | 0.5 -450 |
| Daulton Varsho (TOR) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Justin Turner (TOR) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Max Kepler (MIN) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
Blue Jays vs Twins Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Justin Turner (TOR) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Alex Kirilloff (MIN) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Isiah Kiner-Falefa (TOR) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Danny Jansen (TOR) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Max Kepler (MIN) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
Blue Jays vs Twins RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Danny Jansen (TOR) | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -165 |
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR) | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -165 |
| Justin Turner (TOR) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -175 |
| George Springer (TOR) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Daulton Varsho (TOR) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
Blue Jays vs Twins Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Simeon Woods Richardson (MIN) | 3.5 -135 | 3.5 +100 |
| Kevin Gausman (TOR) | 6.5 +110 | 6.5 -145 |
Twins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Simeon Woods Richardson has allowed an OPS of just .153 (20 PA’s) over the past seven days (1 games) — tied for best among AL Starters over the last week; League Avg: .640 — 100th Percentile.
Simeon Woods Richardson allowed an OPS of just .153 (20 PA’s) — tied for best in MLB over the last week; League Avg: .637 — 100th Percentile.
Simeon Woods Richardson has not allowed a hit in the first inning in any of his last four games dating back to April 13rd — Bryse Wilson has the longest active streak at 7.
Simeon Woods Richardson has not allowed a HR in any of his last four starts dating back to April 13rd — Shawn Armstrong has the longest active streak at 10.
Blue Jays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Kevin Gausman has a strikeout rate of 33% (207 SO in 621 PAs) when going through the lineup the first time in a game since the 2022 season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — 100th Percentile.
Kevin Gausman has a strikeout rate of 30% (100 SO in 333 PAs) when going through the lineup the second time in a game since last season — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 94th Percentile.
Kevin Gausman has not walked any of the 54 batters that he has faced when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 14 total IP; League Avg: 7% — 100th Percentile.
Left-handed hitters have a chase rate of 36% (535/1,488) against Kevin Gausman since the 2022 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 143 total IP; League Avg: 28% — 100th Percentile.
Twins Keys to the Game vs. the Blue Jays
The Twins are 21-61 (.256) when trailing entering the 7th inning since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .143.
The Twins are just 16-29 (.356) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Twins are 88-1 (.989) when leading entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .948.
The Twins are 79-15 (.840) when scoring 5 or more runs since the 2023 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .787.
Blue Jays Keys to the Game vs. the Twins
The Blue Jays are 23-17 (.575) after a loss as underdogs since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .411.
The Blue Jays are just 10-51 (.164) when allowing 10 or more hits since the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .263.
The Blue Jays are 174-43 (.802) when allowing 4 or fewer runs since the 2022 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .719.
The Blue Jays are 72-124 (.367) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .281.
Twins Hitting Stats & Trends
The Twins are batting .279 against LHP this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .245.
Twins hitters have an OPS of .823 (479 PA’s) in innings 7-9 this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .678.
Twins hitters have 1,536 strikeouts in 5,800 PA’s (27%) against RHP since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Twins hitters are slugging .679 on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .587.
Blue Jays Hitting Stats & Trends
Blue Jays hitters have just 573 strikeouts in 2,970 PA’s (19%) against LHP since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Blue Jays are batting just .252 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .330.
The Blue Jays are batting just .235 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .266.
Blue Jays hitters have just 327 strikeouts in 1,731 PA’s (19%) against LHP since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Twins Pitching Stats & Trends
Twins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 27% this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Twins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Twins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 28% versus hitters not batting 3-4-5 in the order this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Twins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 47% with two-strikes this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Blue Jays Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of just 22% against Blue Jays pitchers this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Blue Jays pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 36% with two-strikes over the last 14 days — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Blue Jays pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 39% with two-strikes this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Blue Jays pitchers have a strikeout rate of 44% with two-strikes since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Blue Jays vs. Twins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Erik Swanson (Toronto Blue Jays): Forearm, 15-Day IL
- Jordan Romano (Toronto Blue Jays): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Bo Bichette (Toronto Blue Jays): Neck, Day-To-Day
- Danny Jansen (Toronto Blue Jays): Wrist, 10-Day IL
- Alek Manoah (Toronto Blue Jays): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Zack Weiss (Minnesota Twins): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Jhoan Duran (Minnesota Twins): Oblique, 15-Day IL
- Anthony DeSclafani (Minnesota Twins): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Matt Canterino (Minnesota Twins): Shoulder, 7-Day IL
- Trevor Larnach (Minnesota Twins): Toe, 7-Day IL
- Royce Lewis (Minnesota Twins): Quadriceps, 10-Day IL
- Max Kepler (Minnesota Twins): Leg, Day-To-Day
- Jovani Moran (Minnesota Twins): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Josh Staumont (Minnesota Twins): Calf, 15-Day IL
- Caleb Thielbar (Minnesota Twins): Hamstring, 15-Day IL
- Justin Topa (Minnesota Twins): Kneecap, 15-Day IL
- Jose De Leon (Minnesota Twins): Elbow, Out
- Josh Winder (Minnesota Twins): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
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