- The Twins are -135 favorites vs the Blue Jays
- Twins vs Blue Jays Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Twins / Blue Jays TV Channel: BSNO | RSN | TVA
The Minnesota Twins (-125) visit Rogers Centre to take on the Toronto Blue Jays (+105) on Sunday, May 12, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 1:37pm EDT in Toronto, ON.
This season, the Twins are 23-16 against the spread (ATS), while the Blue Jays are 17-22 ATS.
Twins vs Blue Jays Starting Pitchers Today:
- Twins starting pitcher: Bailey Ober 3-1, 4.42 ERA
- Blue Jays starting pitcher: Alek Manoah 0-0, 13.51 ERA
Twins vs. Blue Jays Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Twins | -1.5 +125 | O 8.5 -105 | -125 |
| Blue Jays | +1.5 -155 | U 8.5 -115 | +105 |
Twins vs Blue Jays Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Twins will win Sunday‘s MLB game with 59.4% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Twins Player Prop Bets Today:
- Carlos Santana has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 8 away games (+25.40 Units / 317% ROI)
- Max Kepler has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 14 games (+13.95 Units / 49% ROI)
- Willi Castro has hit the Total Bases Over in 17 of his last 23 games (+12.40 Units / 39% ROI)
- Trevor Larnach has hit the RBIs Over in 10 of his last 16 games (+11.70 Units / 73% ROI)
- Alex Kirilloff has hit the Singles Under in 17 of his last 24 games (+9.35 Units / 34% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Blue Jays players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Blue Jays Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Bo Bichette has hit the Hits Under in 25 of his last 33 games (+13.55 Units / 21% ROI)
- Danny Jansen has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 6 games at home (+12.95 Units / 216% ROI)
- Justin Turner has hit the Total Bases Under in 17 of his last 21 games (+11.20 Units / 35% ROI)
- Daulton Varsho has hit the Singles Under in his last 11 games at home (+11.00 Units / 52% ROI)
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr has hit the Runs Under in 19 of his last 26 games (+11.00 Units / 34% ROI)
Twins Best Bets Today:
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the Run Line in 31 of their last 50 games (+14.40 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 47 of their last 78 games (+13.95 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Team Total Over in 48 of their last 77 games (+13.50 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 17 of their last 26 games (+6.64 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 14 of their last 22 away games (+5.41 Units / 21% ROI)
Blue Jays Best Bets Today:
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Team Total Under in 40 of their last 66 games at home (+12.34 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Under in 61 of their last 111 games (+11.50 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 18 of their last 26 games (+9.66 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 4 of their last 9 games at home (+1.85 Units / 15% ROI)
Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Twins are 21-18 against the Run Line (+2.2 Units / 4.24% ROI).
- 23-16 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.65 Units / 5.08% ROI
- 20-16 when betting on the total runs Over for +2.45 Units / 5.84% ROI
- 16-20 when betting on the total runs Under for -6.05 Units / -14.49% ROI
Blue Jays Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Blue Jays are 17-22 against the Run Line (-9.3 Units / -17.7% ROI).
- 18-21 when betting on the Moneyline for -6.25 Units / -12.66% ROI
- 17-22 when betting on the total runs Over for -7.25 Units / -16.96% ROI
- 22-17 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.1 Units / 7.2% ROI
Blue Jays vs Twins Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Max Kepler (MIN) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Trevor Larnach (MIN) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
| Carlos Correa (MIN) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
| Davis Schneider (TOR) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
Blue Jays vs Twins Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| George Springer (TOR) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Carlos Correa (MIN) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Max Kepler (MIN) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Isiah Kiner-Falefa (TOR) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
Blue Jays vs Twins RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Max Kepler (MIN) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Carlos Santana (MIN) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Carlos Correa (MIN) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Willi Castro (MIN) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
Blue Jays vs Twins Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bailey Ober (MIN) | 4.5 -145 | 4.5 +110 |
| Alek Manoah (TOR) | 5.5 +120 | 5.5 -155 |
Twins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Bailey Ober has allowed a slugging percentage of .714 (20 Total Bases / 28 ABs) on elevated fastballs this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .350 — second Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 31% (31/100) against Bailey Ober this season — tied for 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — third Percentile.
Bailey Ober has allowed a slugging percentage of .444 (32 Total Bases / 72 ABs) with two-strikes this season — highest among among AL Starters; League Avg: .264 — first Percentile.
Bailey Ober has allowed a slugging percentage of .444 (32 Total Bases / 72 ABs) with two-strikes this season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .258 — third Percentile.
Blue Jays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Alek Manoah has walked 63 of 439 batters (14%) since last season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 79 total IP; League Avg: 8% — second Percentile.
Alek Manoah has allowed an OBP of .392 (439 PA’s) since last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 79 total IP; League Avg: .314 — first Percentile.
Alek Manoah has allowed a slugging percentage of just .301 (146 Total Bases / 485 ABs) against right-handed batters since the 2022 season — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 144 total IP; League Avg: .406 — 98th Percentile.
Alek Manoah has a strike rate of just 61% (256/417) when he’s behind in the count since last season — 4th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 79 total IP; League Avg: 69% — second Percentile.
Twins Keys to the Game vs. the Blue Jays
The Twins are 21-61 (.256) when trailing entering the 7th inning since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .143.
The Twins are 15-72 (.172) when trailing entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .102.
The Twins are just 16-29 (.356) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Twins are 79-15 (.840) when scoring 5 or more runs since the 2023 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .787.
Blue Jays Keys to the Game vs. the Twins
The Blue Jays are 23-17 (.575) after a loss as underdogs since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .411.
The Blue Jays are just 10-69 (.127) when allowing 5 or more runs since the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .213.
The Blue Jays are 72-124 (.367) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .281.
The Blue Jays are 17-11 (.607) after a loss as underdogs since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .425.
Twins Hitting Stats & Trends
Twins hitters have 102 extra-base hits out of 229 total hits (45%) against RHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 34%.
The Twins are batting .279 against LHP this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .245.
Twins hitters have 500 extra-base hits out of 1,239 total hits (40%) against RHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Twins hitters have 133 extra-base hits out of 318 total hits (42%) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 34%.
Blue Jays Hitting Stats & Trends
The Blue Jays are batting just .236 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .266.
Blue Jays hitters are slugging just .398 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .554.
Blue Jays hitters have an OBP of .341 (333 PA’s) against LHP this season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .314.
Blue Jays hitters have chased just 15% pitches with the pitcher behind in the count this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Twins Pitching Stats & Trends
Twins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 27% this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Twins pitchers have walked 102 of 1,458 batters (7%) this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Twins pitchers have walked 545 of 7,486 batters (7%) since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Twins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Blue Jays Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of just 22% against Blue Jays pitchers this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Blue Jays pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 39% with two-strikes this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Blue Jays pitchers have a strikeout rate of 44% with two-strikes since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Blue Jays pitchers this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Blue Jays vs. Twins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Erik Swanson (Toronto Blue Jays): Forearm, 15-Day IL
- Jordan Romano (Toronto Blue Jays): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Bo Bichette (Toronto Blue Jays): Neck, Day-To-Day
- Danny Jansen (Toronto Blue Jays): Wrist, 10-Day IL
- Alek Manoah (Toronto Blue Jays): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Zack Weiss (Minnesota Twins): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Jhoan Duran (Minnesota Twins): Oblique, 15-Day IL
- Anthony DeSclafani (Minnesota Twins): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Matt Canterino (Minnesota Twins): Shoulder, 7-Day IL
- Trevor Larnach (Minnesota Twins): Toe, 7-Day IL
- Royce Lewis (Minnesota Twins): Quadriceps, 10-Day IL
- Max Kepler (Minnesota Twins): Leg, Day-To-Day
- Jovani Moran (Minnesota Twins): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Josh Staumont (Minnesota Twins): Calf, 15-Day IL
- Caleb Thielbar (Minnesota Twins): Hamstring, 15-Day IL
- Justin Topa (Minnesota Twins): Kneecap, 15-Day IL
- Jose De Leon (Minnesota Twins): Elbow, Out
- Josh Winder (Minnesota Twins): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
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