- The Twins are -130 favorites vs the Guardians
- Twins vs Guardians Over / Under today: 7 Runs
- Twins / Guardians TV Channel: GDTV | TWTV
The Minnesota Twins (-130) visit Progressive Field to take on the Cleveland Guardians (+110) on Wednesday, April 30, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 6:10pm EDT in Cleveland, OH, OH.
This season, the Twins are 13-17 against the spread (ATS), while the Guardians are 14-15 ATS.
Twins vs Guardians Starting Pitchers Today:
- Twins starting pitcher: Pablo Lopez 2-1, 2.05 ERA
- Guardians starting pitcher: Luis Ortiz 2-3, 5.97 ERA
Twins vs. Guardians Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Twins | -1.5 +140 | O 7 +100 | -130 |
| Guardians | +1.5 -170 | U 7 -120 | +110 |
Twins vs Guardians Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Twins will win Wednesday‘s MLB game with 56.2% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Twins Player Prop Bets Today:
- Ty France has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 7 away games (+20.50 Units / 293% ROI)
- Ty France has hit the Hits Under in 14 of his last 25 away games (+11.85 Units / 47% ROI)
- Ty France has hit the RBIs Over in 9 of his last 15 games (+10.75 Units / 72% ROI)
- Ty France has hit the Singles Under in 18 of his last 25 away games (+10.20 Units / 36% ROI)
- Ty France has hit the Runs Over in 6 of his last 7 games (+8.10 Units / 116% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Guardians Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Kyle Manzardo has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 8 games (+17.60 Units / 220% ROI)
- Steven Kwan has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 25 games (+11.70 Units / 23% ROI)
- Steven Kwan has hit the Singles Over in 19 of his last 25 games (+9.70 Units / 26% ROI)
- Carlos Santana has hit the Runs Under in 13 of his last 15 games (+9.60 Units / 33% ROI)
- Jose Ramirez has hit the Total Bases Under in 15 of his last 20 games (+8.40 Units / 29% ROI)
Twins Best Bets Today:
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 16 of their last 23 games (+9.75 Units / 35% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Under in 14 of their last 21 games (+7.55 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 13 of their last 23 games (+7.45 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the Run Line in 13 of their last 20 games (+7.00 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 10 of their last 14 away games (+6.60 Units / 42% ROI)
Guardians Best Bets Today:
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Team Total Under in 17 of their last 26 games (+7.45 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 13 of their last 20 games (+6.70 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Over in 10 of their last 17 games (+4.50 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 17 of their last 29 games (+3.90 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 9 of their last 19 games (+1.15 Units / 5% ROI)
Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Twins are 16-14 against the Run Line (+2.65 Units / 7.04% ROI).
- 13-17 when betting on the Moneyline for -8.05 Units / -19.35% ROI
- 11-16 when betting on the total runs Over for -6.7 Units / -20.18% ROI
- 16-11 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.9 Units / 11.89% ROI
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Guardians are 14-15 against the Run Line (-4.25 Units / -10.28% ROI).
- 16-13 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.55 Units / 10.23% ROI
- 15-12 when betting on the total runs Over for +2.2 Units / 6.95% ROI
- 12-15 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.3 Units / -13.37% ROI
Guardians vs Twins Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Byron Buxton (MIN) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -625 |
| Trevor Larnach (MIN) | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
| Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -900 |
| Kyle Manzardo (CLE) | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Carlos Santana (CLE) | 0.5 +750 | 0.5 -1200 |
Guardians vs Twins Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Steven Kwan (CLE) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Carlos Correa (MIN) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Ty France (MIN) | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +135 |
| Byron Buxton (MIN) | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +135 |
Guardians vs Twins RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Byron Buxton (MIN) | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
| Trevor Larnach (MIN) | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -250 |
| Carlos Santana (CLE) | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
| Carlos Correa (MIN) | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
| Kyle Manzardo (CLE) | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -295 |
Guardians vs Twins Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Pablo Lopez (MIN) | 5.5 +125 | 5.5 -160 |
Twins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a first pitch chase rate of 23% (89/378) against Pablo Lopez since last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 17% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .422 (46-for-109) against Pablo Lopez on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .332 — second Percentile.
Opponents had a first pitch chase rate of 24% (82/335) against Pablo Lopez in the 2024 season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 16% — 100th Percentile.
Pablo Lopez walked 5% of batters in the 2024 season — 8th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — 88th Percentile.
Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Luis Ortiz has a strikeout rate of 48% (10 SO in 21 PAs) in PAs ending on elevated fastballs this season — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 11 total IP; League Avg: 23% — 97th Percentile.
Opponents had a miss rate of just 17% (23/134) against Luis Ortiz on the first pitch of at-bats in 2023 — 4th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 26% — third Percentile.
Luis Ortiz has allowed a slugging percentage of .000 (0 TB / 19 ABs) on elevated fastballs this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 11 total IP; League Avg: .389 — 100th Percentile.
Luis Ortiz threw fastballs down 49% of the time (388/787) in 2023 — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 27% — 98th Percentile.
Twins Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians
The Twins are just 1-5 (.167) vs top 10 scoring offenses this season They play the Guardians (14th best runs scored) today.
The Twins are just 1-83 (.012) when trailing entering the 9th inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .049.
The Twins are just 0-15 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .040.
The Twins are just 4-11 (.267) on the road this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .396.
Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Twins
The Guardians are 85-3 (.966) when leading entering the 7th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .862.
The Guardians are 96-0 (1.000) when leading entering the 9th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .951.
The Guardians are 9-0 (1.000) when they’ve had 10 or more hits this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .746.
The Guardians were 71-2 (.973) when leading entering the 7th inning in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .856.
Twins Hitting Stats & Trends
Twins hitters have an OPS of just .520 (303 PA’s) in innings 7-9 this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .682.
The Twins batted just .241 against LHP in the 2023 season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .254.
Twins hitters had an OPS of just .482 (3,423 PA’s) with two-strikes in 2023 — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .523.
The Twins were just 14-29 (.326) against the run line (-32.5% ROI) vs top 10 scoring offenses in the 2024 season They play the Royals (12th best runs scored) today.
Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends
The Guardians batted just .232 against LHP in the 2023 season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .254.
Guardians hitters have put just 34% of balls in play to the left side of the field since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 38%.
Guardians hitters had a Hard-Hit Rate of just 34% on the first pitch of at-bats in the 2024 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Guardians hitters struck out just 1,142 times in 6,096 PA’s (19%) in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Twins Pitching Stats & Trends
Twins pitchers have walked 7% of batters since last season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Twins pitchers had a strikeout rate of 47% with two-strikes in 2023 — best in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents had a groundball rate of just 41% against Twins pitchers in the 2024 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Twins pitchers have walked 7% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the 2023 season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents had a groundball batting average of just .207 against Guardians pitchers with runners on base in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .262.
The Guardians allowed 0.87 runs per game (140/161) in late innings in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 1.29.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .221 against Guardians pitchers with runners on base since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .262.
Opponents had a groundball batting average of just .223 against Guardians pitchers in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .249.
More MLB Reading:
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