- The Twins are -110 favorites vs the Guardians
- Twins vs Guardians Over / Under today: 9 Runs
- Twins / Guardians TV Channel: GDTV | TWTV | MLBN
The Minnesota Twins (-110) visit Progressive Field to take on the Cleveland Guardians (-110) on Thursday, May 1, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 1:10pm EDT in Cleveland, OH, OH.
This season, the Twins are 13-18 against the spread (ATS), while the Guardians are 15-15 ATS.
Twins vs Guardians Starting Pitchers Today:
- Twins starting pitcher: Simeon Woods Richardson 2-2, 4.19 ERA
- Guardians starting pitcher: Ben Lively 1-2, 4.45 ERA
Twins vs. Guardians Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Twins | -1.5 +150 | O 9 +100 | -110 |
| Guardians | +1.5 -185 | U 9 -120 | -110 |
Twins vs Guardians Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Guardians will win Thursday‘s MLB game with 51.0% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Twins Player Prop Bets Today:
- Ty France has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 8 away games (+19.50 Units / 244% ROI)
- Ty France has hit the RBIs Over in 12 of his last 20 games (+14.70 Units / 74% ROI)
- Carlos Correa has hit the Singles Under in 15 of his last 20 away games (+10.60 Units / 50% ROI)
- Ty France has hit the Hits Under in 13 of his last 25 away games (+9.20 Units / 37% ROI)
- Ty France has hit the Runs Over in 6 of his last 8 games (+7.10 Units / 89% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Guardians Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Kyle Manzardo has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 9 games (+16.60 Units / 184% ROI)
- Nolan Jones has hit the Runs Under in 21 of his last 25 games (+14.05 Units / 31% ROI)
- Gabriel Arias has hit the Singles Under in 15 of his last 20 games at home (+8.15 Units / 27% ROI)
- Steven Kwan has hit the Hits Over in 18 of his last 25 games (+8.00 Units / 16% ROI)
- Jose Ramirez has hit the Total Bases Under in 12 of his last 15 games at home (+7.25 Units / 32% ROI)
Twins Best Bets Today:
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 16 of their last 24 games (+8.75 Units / 30% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Under in 15 of their last 22 games (+8.55 Units / 36% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 11 of their last 15 away games (+7.70 Units / 46% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 13 of their last 24 games (+7.45 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the Run Line in 13 of their last 21 games (+6.00 Units / 22% ROI)
Guardians Best Bets Today:
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 14 of their last 21 games (+7.70 Units / 30% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Team Total Under in 17 of their last 27 games (+6.15 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 6 of their last 8 games (+4.15 Units / 43% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Over in 10 of their last 18 games (+3.40 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 9 of their last 20 games (+1.15 Units / 5% ROI)
Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Twins are 16-15 against the Run Line (+1.65 Units / 4.27% ROI).
- 13-18 when betting on the Moneyline for -9.15 Units / -21.43% ROI
- 11-17 when betting on the total runs Over for -7.8 Units / -22.74% ROI
- 17-11 when betting on the total runs Under for +4.9 Units / 14.45% ROI
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Guardians are 15-15 against the Run Line (-3.25 Units / -7.53% ROI).
- 17-13 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.55 Units / 12.71% ROI
- 15-13 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.1 Units / 3.36% ROI
- 13-15 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.3 Units / -9.92% ROI
Guardians vs Twins Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Byron Buxton (MIN) | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -325 |
| Jhonkensy Noel (CLE) | 0.5 +270 | 0.5 -325 |
| Kyle Manzardo (CLE) | 0.5 +320 | 0.5 -400 |
| Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -500 |
| Trevor Larnach (MIN) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -500 |
Guardians vs Twins Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Gabriel Arias (CLE) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Steven Kwan (CLE) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Ty France (MIN) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Trevor Larnach (MIN) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +175 |
| Brooks Lee (MIN) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
Guardians vs Twins RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Byron Buxton (MIN) | 0.5 +115 | 0.5 -150 |
| Kyle Manzardo (CLE) | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -165 |
| Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -165 |
| Jhonkensy Noel (CLE) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Trevor Larnach (MIN) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
Guardians vs Twins Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Simeon Woods Richardson (MIN) | 4.5 +105 | 4.5 -140 |
| Ben Lively (CLE) | 4.5 +120 | 4.5 -155 |
Twins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents had a groundball batting average of .415 (22 GB hits out of 53 GBs) against Simeon Woods Richardson with runners on base in the 2024 season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .257 — first Percentile.
Simeon Woods Richardson has allowed a slugging percentage of .634 (64 Total Bases / 101 ABs) on changeups since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 76 total IP; League Avg: .375 — first Percentile.
Left-handed batters are hitting .381 (16-for-42) against Simeon Woods Richardson this season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 11 total IP; League Avg: .243 — third Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .457 (42-for-92) against Simeon Woods Richardson when he’s behind in the count since last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 76 total IP; League Avg: .341 — first Percentile.
Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of just 4% (2/51) against Ben Lively with runners in scoring position this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 27% — first Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 9% (3/35) against Ben Lively on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — first Percentile.
Ben Lively has allowed an OPS of .958 (53 PA’s) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — 6th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .651 — sixth Percentile.
Hitters batting in the top of the order have hit .432 against Ben Lively this season — highest among among AL Starters; League Avg: .260 — second Percentile.
Twins Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians
The Twins are just 1-5 (.167) vs top 10 scoring offenses this season They play the Guardians (14th best runs scored) today.
The Twins are just 0-10 (.000) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .170.
The Twins were just 1-68 (.014) when trailing entering the 9th inning in the 2024 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .050.
The Twins are just 1-84 (.012) when trailing entering the 9th inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .048.
Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Twins
The Guardians are 85-3 (.966) when leading entering the 7th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .861.
The Guardians are just 3-74 (.039) when trailing entering the 8th inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .096.
The Guardians were 71-2 (.973) when leading entering the 7th inning in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .856.
The Guardians were 82-0 (1.000) when leading entering the 9th inning in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .949.
Twins Hitting Stats & Trends
The Twins batted just .150 with two-strikes in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .172.
Twins hitters slugged .716 on the first pitch of at-bats in the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .596.
Twins hitters are slugging just .328 against LHP this season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .373.
Twins hitters slugged just .164 on pitches out of the zone in 2023 — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .211.
Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends
Guardians hitters had an OPS of just .662 (1,910 PA’s) against LHP in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .742.
Guardians hitters have a swing rate of 63% with two-strikes since last season — tied for highest in MLB; League Avg: 60%.
Guardians hitters had an OBP of just .296 (1,910 PA’s) against LHP in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .323.
The Guardians batted just .232 against LHP in the 2023 season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .254.
Twins Pitching Stats & Trends
Twins pitchers have walked 7% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the 2023 season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Twins pitchers had a strikeout rate of 26% in 2023 — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Opponents had a groundball batting average of .293 against Twins pitchers with runners on base in the 2024 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .262.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 40% against Twins pitchers since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents had a groundball batting average of just .207 against Guardians pitchers with runners on base in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .262.
The Guardians allowed 0.87 runs per game (140/161) in late innings in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 1.29.
Opponents had a groundball batting average of just .223 against Guardians pitchers in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .249.
Opponents had a groundball rate of just 41% against Guardians pitchers in 2023 — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
More MLB Reading:
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