- The Guardians are -125 favorites vs the Twins
- Twins vs Guardians Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Twins / Guardians TV Channel: BSGL | BSNO
The Minnesota Twins (+105) visit Progressive Field to take on the Cleveland Guardians (-125) on Tuesday, September 17, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Cleveland, OH.
This season, the Twins are 79-71 against the spread (ATS), while the Guardians are 77-74 ATS.
Twins vs Guardians Starting Pitchers Today:
- Twins starting pitcher: Zebby Matthews 1-3, 7.11 ERA
- Guardians starting pitcher: Gavin Williams 3-9, 5.21 ERA
Twins vs. Guardians Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Twins | +1.5 -210 | O 8 -105 | +105 |
| Guardians | -1.5 +170 | U 8 -115 | -125 |
Twins vs Guardians Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Guardians will win Tuesday‘s MLB game with 52.1% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
Bet now on Twins vs Guardians and all games with BetMGM
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Twins Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jose Miranda has hit the RBIs Under in 16 of his last 17 away games (+14.05 Units / 38% ROI)
- Kyle Farmer has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 4 games (+12.60 Units / 315% ROI)
- Royce Lewis has hit the Runs Under in 15 of his last 18 games (+10.60 Units / 41% ROI)
- Matt Wallner has hit the Total Bases Over in 27 of his last 40 games (+10.55 Units / 20% ROI)
- Royce Lewis has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 13 of his last 18 games (+8.25 Units / 41% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Guardians Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Brayan Rocchio has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 11 games (+14.50 Units / 132% ROI)
- Lane Thomas has hit the Runs Under in 19 of his last 25 games at home (+10.90 Units / 28% ROI)
- Jose Ramirez has hit the RBIs Under in 16 of his last 19 games (+10.80 Units / 33% ROI)
- Jose Ramirez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 19 of his last 25 games at home (+10.80 Units / 32% ROI)
- Lane Thomas has hit the Hits Under in 13 of his last 21 games at home (+10.55 Units / 47% ROI)
Twins Best Bets Today:
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 48 of their last 84 games (+14.20 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 14 of their last 19 games (+9.45 Units / 42% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 13 of their last 24 away games (+2.10 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 7 of their last 12 away games (+1.70 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the Run Line in 3 of their last 6 games (+0.05 Units / 1% ROI)
Guardians Best Bets Today:
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 35 of their last 59 games (+12.90 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 87 of their last 151 games (+12.22 Units / 6% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 35 of their last 69 games at home (+11.75 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 8 of their last 12 games (+3.85 Units / 27% ROI)
Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Twins are 68-82 against the Run Line (-18.4 Units / -9.71% ROI).
- 79-71 when betting on the Moneyline for -11.25 Units / -5.25% ROI
- 76-65 when betting on the total runs Over for +4.8 Units / 2.93% ROI
- 65-76 when betting on the total runs Under for -18.85 Units / -11.48% ROI
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Guardians are 77-74 against the Run Line (+5.45 Units / 2.88% ROI).
- 87-64 when betting on the Moneyline for +12.22 Units / 6.24% ROI
- 67-74 when betting on the total runs Over for -14.85 Units / -8.9% ROI
- 74-67 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.35 Units / 0.21% ROI
Guardians vs Twins Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Matt Wallner (MIN) | 0.5 +310 | 0.5 -400 |
| Byron Buxton (MIN) | 0.5 +333 | 0.5 -450 |
| Royce Lewis (MIN) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Kyle Manzardo (CLE) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -650 |
| Jhonkensy Noel (CLE) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
Guardians vs Twins Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Josh Naylor (CLE) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Carlos Correa (MIN) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Royce Lewis (MIN) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Lane Thomas (CLE) | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +135 |
Guardians vs Twins RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Josh Naylor (CLE) | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -165 |
| Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -190 |
| Royce Lewis (MIN) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Byron Buxton (MIN) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Matt Wallner (MIN) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -225 |
Guardians vs Twins Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Gavin Williams (CLE) | 5.5 -160 | 5.5 +125 |
| Zebby Matthews (MIN) | 4.5 +130 | 4.5 -165 |
Twins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Zebby Matthews has allowed at least one HR in each of his last four games dating back to August 25th — Bobby Miller has the longest active streak at 11.
Zebby Matthews has allowed a slugging percentage of .500 (10 Total Bases / 20 ABs) with two-strikes this month (2 games) — tied for 8th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 4 total IP; League Avg: .251 — seventh Percentile.
Zebby Matthews has allowed a slugging percentage of .750 (12 Total Bases / 16 ABs) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this month (2 games) — tied for 5th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 4 total IP; League Avg: .385 — fourth Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .350 (7-for-20) against Zebby Matthews with two-strikes this month (2 games) — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 4 total IP; League Avg: .165 — second Percentile.
Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Gavin Williams has walked 5 of 25 batters (20%) when going through the lineup the first time in a game this month (3 games) — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — second Percentile.
10 of Gavin Williams’ 31 breaking pitch strikeouts (32%) have been backdoor this season — 5th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 60 total IP; League Avg: 14% — 96th Percentile.
20 of Gavin Williams’ 71 breaking pitch strikeouts (28%) have been backdoor since last season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 124 total IP; League Avg: 14% — 96th Percentile.
Opponents batted .333 (7-for-21) against Gavin Williams in his last start — tied for 6th highest in MLB over the last week; League Avg: .224 — eighth Percentile.
Twins Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians
The Twins are 137-2 (.986) when leading entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .949.
The Twins are 205-5 (.976) when leading entering the 9th inning since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .950.
The Twins are 26-103 (.202) when trailing entering the 7th inning since the 2023 season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .142.
The Twins are just 8-14 (.364) after a loss as underdogs this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .434.
Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Twins
The Guardians are 67-2 (.971) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .857.
The Guardians are 39-170 (.187) when trailing entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .134.
The Guardians are just 3-56 (.051) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .101.
The Guardians are 29-11 (.725) when they’ve scored in the first inning this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .642.
Twins Hitting Stats & Trends
Twins hitters have 139 extra-base hits out of 334 total hits (42%) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
The Twins are batting just .119 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this month (14 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .252.
Twins hitters are slugging .445 at home this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .406.
The Twins are batting just .200 in lefty-lefty matchups since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .239.
Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends
The Guardians are batting just .293 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .331.
Guardians hitters have put just 34% of balls in play to the left side of the field since last season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 38%.
The Guardians have barrels in 4% of PA’s since last season (439/11,665) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 5%.
Guardians hitters had a Hard-Hit Rate of just 33% in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 40%.
Twins Pitching Stats & Trends
Twins pitchers have walked 832 of 11,596 batters (7%) since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Twins pitchers have walked 182 of 2,786 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Twins pitchers have induced opposing hitters to ground into just 66 double plays in 941 opportunities (7%) this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 10%.
Twins pitchers have walked 389 of 5,568 batters (7%) this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .204 against Guardians pitchers with runners on base this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .262.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .222 against Guardians pitchers this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .249.
The Guardians have allowed 0.87 runs per game (131/151) in late innings this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 1.30.
Guardians pitchers have won 39% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
Guardians vs. Twins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Cleveland Guardians – No Injuries Reported
- Minnesota Twins – No Injuries Reported
Bet now on Twins vs Guardians and all games with BetMGM
Bet on MLB Odds at BetMGM
Sportsbook promos are always available at BetMGM. For new customers, check out the sportsbook welcome offer and BetMGM Refer a Friend. For existing customers, there are Odds Boosts, Parlay Boosts, contests and more.
