- The Mariners are -130 favorites vs the Twins
- Twins vs Mariners Over / Under today: 7 Runs
- Twins / Mariners TV Channel: BSNO | RTNW | MLBN
The Minnesota Twins (+105) visit T-Mobile Park to take on the Seattle Mariners (-130) on Saturday, June 29, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 10:10pm EDT in Seattle, WA.
This season, the Twins are 45-37 against the spread (ATS), while the Mariners are 39-45 ATS.
Twins vs Mariners Starting Pitchers Today:
- Twins starting pitcher: Pablo Lopez 7-6, 5.14 ERA
- Mariners starting pitcher: Bryce Miller 6-6, 3.92 ERA
Twins vs. Mariners Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Twins | +1.5 -200 | O 7 +100 | +105 |
| Mariners | -1.5 +165 | U 7 -120 | -130 |
Twins vs Mariners Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Twins will win Saturday‘s MLB game with 54.2% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Twins Player Prop Bets Today:
- Carlos Santana has hit the Home Runs Over in 7 of his last 25 away games (+21.80 Units / 87% ROI)
- Trevor Larnach has hit the Walks Under in 21 of his last 24 games (+15.00 Units / 27% ROI)
- Max Kepler has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 19 of his last 27 games (+11.65 Units / 41% ROI)
- Willi Castro has hit the Runs Over in 21 of his last 35 games (+11.05 Units / 30% ROI)
- Manuel Margot has hit the Total Bases Under in 14 of his last 17 away games (+9.90 Units / 36% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mariners players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mariners Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Luke Raley has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 13 games at home (+15.60 Units / 120% ROI)
- Julio Rodriguez has hit the Hits Under in 24 of his last 35 games (+15.00 Units / 23% ROI)
- Julio Rodriguez has hit the Total Bases Under in 34 of his last 50 games (+12.60 Units / 18% ROI)
- Josh Rojas has hit the Singles Under in 20 of his last 27 games (+11.90 Units / 35% ROI)
- Julio Rodriguez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 18 of his last 26 games (+10.55 Units / 37% ROI)
Twins Best Bets Today:
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Team Total Over in 40 of their last 65 games (+10.95 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Moneyline in 38 of their last 62 games (+7.00 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 15 of their last 23 away games (+6.74 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 11 of their last 16 games (+5.50 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the Run Line in 5 of their last 6 games (+4.75 Units / 66% ROI)
Mariners Best Bets Today:
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Moneyline in 24 of their last 30 games at home (+15.90 Units / 36% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Under in 27 of their last 39 games at home (+14.60 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have covered the Run Line in 19 of their last 30 games at home (+13.80 Units / 41% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 19 of their last 30 games at home (+10.25 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 20 of their last 30 games at home (+8.30 Units / 23% ROI)
Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Twins are 38-44 against the Run Line (-8.95 Units / -8.53% ROI).
- 45-37 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.95 Units / -1.7% ROI
- 39-39 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.9 Units / -4.37% ROI
- 39-39 when betting on the total runs Under for -4 Units / -4.49% ROI
Mariners Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Mariners are 39-45 against the Run Line (-9 Units / -8.32% ROI).
- 47-37 when betting on the Moneyline for +2 Units / 1.83% ROI
- 33-47 when betting on the total runs Over for -17.8 Units / -19.66% ROI
- 47-33 when betting on the total runs Under for +10.45 Units / 11.31% ROI
Mariners vs Twins Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Julio Rodriguez (SEA) | 0.5 +333 | 0.5 -450 |
| Cal Raleigh (SEA) | 0.5 +350 | 0.5 -450 |
| Max Kepler (MIN) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -550 |
| Byron Buxton (MIN) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Mitch Garver (SEA) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -650 |
Mariners vs Twins Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Julio Rodriguez (SEA) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Carlos Correa (MIN) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Royce Lewis (MIN) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Max Kepler (MIN) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Trevor Larnach (MIN) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
Mariners vs Twins RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Royce Lewis (MIN) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Max Kepler (MIN) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Julio Rodriguez (SEA) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Cal Raleigh (SEA) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Trevor Larnach (MIN) | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
Mariners vs Twins Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bailey Ober (MIN) | 6.5 -110 | 6.5 -120 |
| Logan Gilbert (SEA) | 6.5 +100 | 6.5 -135 |
Twins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opposing hitters have a chase rate of 36% (210/581) against Pablo Lopez when he’s behind in the count since the 2022 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 160 total IP; League Avg: 25% — 100th Percentile.
Pablo Lopez has allowed a slugging percentage of .524 (66 Total Bases / 126 ABs) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .361 — third Percentile.
Pablo Lopez has walked 3 of 144 batters (2%) when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — tied for 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — 97th Percentile.
Pablo Lopez has a strikeout rate of 29% (126 SO in 431 PAs) when going through the lineup the second time in a game since last season — tied for 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 96th Percentile.
Mariners Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Right-handed hitters have a line drive rate of just 15% (16/106) against Bryce Miller this season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 98th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .161 (9-for-56) against Bryce Miller on low fastballs this season — 4th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .256 — 94th Percentile.
Bryce Miller has thrown fastballs 70% of the time (434/617) against right-handed batters this season — highest among among AL Starters; League Avg: 46% — 100th Percentile.
Bryce Miller has thrown fastballs 81% of the time (240/296) when he’s behind in the count this season — highest among among AL Starters; League Avg: 49% — 100th Percentile.
Twins Keys to the Game vs. the Mariners
The Twins are 51-17 (.750) when they’ve scored in the first inning since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .619.
The Twins are 14-25 (.359) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .198.
The Twins are 108-1 (.991) when leading entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .947.
The Twins are just 21-32 (.396) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Mariners Keys to the Game vs. the Twins
The Mariners are 9-2 (.818) after a home loss this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .545.
The Mariners are 28-12 (.700) at home this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .537.
The Mariners are 115-3 (.975) when leading entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .947.
The Mariners are 53-31 (.631) after a home loss since the 2022 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .522.
Twins Hitting Stats & Trends
The Twins are batting .283 against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .247.
Twins hitters are slugging .461 against LHP this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .395.
Twins hitters have an OBP of .336 (781 PA’s) against LHP this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .315.
Twins hitters are slugging .422 this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .393.
Mariners Hitting Stats & Trends
The Mariners are batting just .210 against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .247.
Mariners hitters have put just 32% of their swings in play with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Mariners hitters have 224 strikeouts in 842 PA’s (27%) against LHP this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Mariners hitters have 16 extra-base hits out of 72 total hits (just 22%) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 35%.
Twins Pitching Stats & Trends
Twins pitchers have walked 656 of 9,062 batters (7%) since last season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Twins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 26% against Twins pitchers this season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Twins pitchers since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Mariners Pitching Stats & Trends
The Mariners pitchers have allowed division opponents to score first in just 18% of their games this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Mariners pitchers have an ERA of 3.11 (1109.0 IP) at home since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.11.
Mariners pitchers have walked 199 of 2,992 batters (7%) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 40% against Mariners pitchers this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Mariners vs. Twins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Jackson Kowar (Seattle Mariners): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Mitch Garver (Seattle Mariners): Back, Day-To-Day
- Sam Haggerty (Seattle Mariners): Undisclosed, 10-Day IL
- Gregory Santos (Seattle Mariners): Lat, 15-Day IL
- Eduard Bazardo (Seattle Mariners): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Bryan Woo (Seattle Mariners): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Matt Brash (Seattle Mariners): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Zack Weiss (Minnesota Twins): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Jhoan Duran (Minnesota Twins): Oblique, 15-Day IL
- Anthony DeSclafani (Minnesota Twins): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Matt Canterino (Minnesota Twins): Shoulder, 7-Day IL
- Trevor Larnach (Minnesota Twins): Toe, 7-Day IL
- Royce Lewis (Minnesota Twins): Quadriceps, 10-Day IL
- Max Kepler (Minnesota Twins): Leg, Day-To-Day
- Jovani Moran (Minnesota Twins): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Josh Staumont (Minnesota Twins): Calf, 15-Day IL
- Caleb Thielbar (Minnesota Twins): Hamstring, 15-Day IL
- Justin Topa (Minnesota Twins): Kneecap, 15-Day IL
- Jose De Leon (Minnesota Twins): Elbow, Out
- Josh Winder (Minnesota Twins): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
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