- The Mets are -120 favorites vs the Twins
- Twins vs Mets Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Twins / Mets TV Channel: BSNO | SNY
The Minnesota Twins (+100) visit Citi Field to take on the New York Mets (-120) on Monday, July 29, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Flushing, NY.
This season, the Twins are 58-46 against the spread (ATS), while the Mets are 51-54 ATS.
Twins vs Mets Starting Pitchers Today:
- Twins starting pitcher: Simeon Woods Richardson 3-1, 3.30 ERA
- Mets starting pitcher: Jose Quintana 5-6, 3.99 ERA
Twins vs. Mets Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Twins | +1.5 -210 | O 8.5 -110 | +100 |
| Mets | -1.5 +160 | U 8.5 -110 | -120 |
Twins vs Mets Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Twins will win Monday‘s MLB game with 51.9% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Twins Player Prop Bets Today:
- Christian Vazquez has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 23 games (+20.00 Units / 87% ROI)
- Max Kepler has hit the Singles Over in 20 of his last 31 games (+10.80 Units / 34% ROI)
- Willi Castro has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 25 of his last 38 games (+10.00 Units / 22% ROI)
- Max Kepler has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 19 games (+9.30 Units / 23% ROI)
- Trevor Larnach has hit the Total Bases Under in 21 of his last 32 games (+8.90 Units / 20% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mets Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jeff McNeil has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 22 games (+27.00 Units / 123% ROI)
- Tyrone Taylor has hit the Runs Over in 15 of his last 24 games (+12.80 Units / 53% ROI)
- Tyrone Taylor has hit the Singles Under in 23 of his last 30 games (+12.75 Units / 28% ROI)
- Brandon Nimmo has hit the Total Bases Under in his last 12 games (+12.40 Units / 66% ROI)
- Brandon Nimmo has hit the Hits Under in 8 of his last 10 games (+10.45 Units / 92% ROI)
Twins Best Bets Today:
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 25 of their last 38 games (+10.95 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the Run Line in 17 of their last 28 games (+8.75 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Moneyline in 51 of their last 84 games (+8.00 Units / 6% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 4 of their last 5 away games (+2.85 Units / 45% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 3 of their last 5 away games (+2.10 Units / 33% ROI)
Mets Best Bets Today:
- The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Over in 59 of their last 96 games (+15.10 Units / 13% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 31 of their last 46 games (+14.20 Units / 23% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Over in 37 of their last 64 games (+10.50 Units / 15% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 17 of their last 23 games at home (+9.95 Units / 36% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 27 of their last 47 games (+8.40 Units / 14% ROI)
Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Twins are 50-54 against the Run Line (-4.95 Units / -3.79% ROI).
- 58-46 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.95 Units / -0.65% ROI
- 53-47 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.55 Units / 1.37% ROI
- 47-53 when betting on the total runs Under for -11.5 Units / -10.12% ROI
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Mets are 51-54 against the Run Line (-5.15 Units / -3.85% ROI).
- 55-50 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.25 Units / 0.99% ROI
- 55-45 when betting on the total runs Over for +5.3 Units / 4.63% ROI
- 45-55 when betting on the total runs Under for -14.75 Units / -13.14% ROI
Mets vs Twins Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Byron Buxton (MIN) | 0.5 +325 | 0.5 -450 |
| Pete Alonso (NYM) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| J.D Martinez (NYM) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Mark Vientos (NYM) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -650 |
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
Mets vs Twins Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Royce Lewis (MIN) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Byron Buxton (MIN) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +175 |
| Brandon Nimmo (NYM) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| J.D Martinez (NYM) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Willi Castro (MIN) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
Mets vs Twins RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Byron Buxton (MIN) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Royce Lewis (MIN) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| J.D Martinez (NYM) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Pete Alonso (NYM) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Ryan Jeffers (MIN) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
Mets vs Twins Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Simeon Woods Richardson (MIN) | 4.5 -120 | 4.5 -105 |
| Jose Quintana (NYM) | 4.5 -110 | 4.5 -115 |
Twins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .432 (16 GB hits out of 37 GBs) against Simeon Woods Richardson with runners on base this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 41 total IP; League Avg: .258 — first Percentile.
Simeon Woods Richardson has walked 3 of 75 batters (4%) with runners in scoring position this season — 4th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 41 total IP; League Avg: 9% — 97th Percentile.
Simeon Woods Richardson has allowed a slugging percentage of just .285 (37 Total Bases / 130 ABs) on fastballs this season — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 41 total IP; League Avg: .428 — 98th Percentile.
Simeon Woods Richardson has a first-pitch strike rate of 80% (16/20) over the past seven days (1 games) — highest among AL Starters over the last week; League Avg: 63% — 100th Percentile.
Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Jose Quintana has a strikeout rate of just 12% (9 SO in 76 PAs) in PAs ending on elevated fastballs this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 28% — first Percentile.
11 of Jose Quintana’s 33 breaking pitch strikeouts (33%) have been backdoor this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 14% — 98th Percentile.
Jose Quintana has a strike rate of just 59% (1,056/1,775) this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 65% — first Percentile.
Jose Quintana has a strike rate of just 57% (497/872) in two strike counts since last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 106 total IP; League Avg: 65% — 0 Percentile.
Twins Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Twins are just 3-8 (.273) after a win as underdogs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .413.
The Twins are 117-1 (.992) when leading entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .947.
The Twins are 55-18 (.753) when they’ve scored in the first inning since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .622.
The Twins are 185-4 (.979) when leading entering the 9th inning since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .950.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Twins
The Mets are just 43-6 (.878) when leading entering the 9th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .945.
The Mets are 6-40 (.130) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .055.
The Mets are just 39-11 (.780) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .896.
The Mets are 7-34 (.171) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .104.
Twins Hitting Stats & Trends
Twins hitters have an OPS of .787 (1,274 PA’s) in innings 7-9 this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .684.
The Twins have scored 1.80 runs per game (478/266) in late innings since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 1.45.
The Twins have scored 1.88 runs per game (196/104) in late innings this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 1.41.
Twins hitters have an OPS of .754 (7,688 PA’s) against RHP since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .722.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
The Mets are batting .266 on the road this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .241.
Mets hitters are slugging .444 against LHP this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .400.
Mets hitters have 107 extra-base hits out of 266 total hits (40%) against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 34%.
The Mets won only 40% of their road games in the 2023 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Twins Pitching Stats & Trends
Twins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 28% versus the bottom of the order this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Twins pitchers since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Twins pitchers have walked 156 of 2,382 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Twins pitchers have walked 1,174 of 15,914 batters (7%) since the 2022 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
Mets pitchers have walked 229 of 2,356 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mets pitchers have walked 89 of 944 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Mets pitchers have walked 994 of 10,117 batters (10%) since last season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mets pitchers have walked 403 of 4,033 batters (10%) this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mets vs. Twins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Ronny Mauricio (New York Mets): Knee, 60-Day IL
- Drew Smith (New York Mets): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Sean Reid-Foley (New York Mets): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Grant Hartwig (New York Mets): Knee, 7-Day IL
- Tim Locastro (New York Mets): Undisclosed, 60-Day IL
- Starling Marte (New York Mets): Knee, 10-Day IL
- Brooks Raley (New York Mets): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Reed Garrett (New York Mets): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Kodai Senga (New York Mets): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Anthony DeSclafani (Minnesota Twins): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Byron Buxton (Minnesota Twins): Forearm, Day-To-Day
- Chris Paddack (Minnesota Twins): Forearm, 15-Day IL
- Royce Lewis (Minnesota Twins): Groin, 10-Day IL
- Jovani Moran (Minnesota Twins): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Brent Headrick (Minnesota Twins): Forearm, 60-Day IL
- Alex Kirilloff (Minnesota Twins): Back, 10-Day IL
- Jose Miranda (Minnesota Twins): Back, 10-Day IL
- Kyle Farmer (Minnesota Twins): Shoulder, 10-Day IL
- Kody Funderburk (Minnesota Twins): Oblique, 15-Day IL
- Justin Topa (Minnesota Twins): Knee, 60-Day IL
- Jose De Leon (Minnesota Twins): Elbow, Out
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