- The Twins are -110 favorites vs the Mets
- Twins vs Mets Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Twins / Mets TV Channel: BSNO | SNY
The Minnesota Twins (-120) visit Citi Field to take on the New York Mets (+100) on Wednesday, July 31, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 1:10pm EDT in Flushing, NY.
This season, the Twins are 58-48 against the spread (ATS), while the Mets are 53-54 ATS.
Twins vs Mets Starting Pitchers Today:
- Twins starting pitcher: Pablo Lopez 9-7, 4.76 ERA
- Mets starting pitcher: Luis Severino 7-3, 3.56 ERA
Twins vs. Mets Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Twins | -1.5 +140 | O 8.5 -115 | -120 |
| Mets | +1.5 -165 | U 8.5 -105 | +100 |
Twins vs Mets Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Twins will win Wednesday‘s MLB game with 53.2% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
Bet now on Twins vs Mets and all games with BetMGM
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Twins Player Prop Bets Today:
- Christian Vazquez has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 24 games (+19.00 Units / 79% ROI)
- Pablo Lopez has hit the Walks Allowed Under in 17 of his last 21 games (+11.85 Units / 39% ROI)
- Max Kepler has hit the Singles Over in 21 of his last 32 games (+11.85 Units / 36% ROI)
- Max Kepler has hit the Hits Over in 17 of his last 20 games (+10.30 Units / 24% ROI)
- Carlos Santana has hit the Runs Under in 19 of his last 24 games (+10.10 Units / 23% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mets Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jeff McNeil has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 24 games (+25.00 Units / 104% ROI)
- Brandon Nimmo has hit the Total Bases Under in his last 14 games (+14.40 Units / 65% ROI)
- Jesse Winker has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 18 of his last 24 games at home (+13.05 Units / 50% ROI)
- Mark Vientos has hit the Hits Over in 23 of his last 30 games (+10.35 Units / 18% ROI)
- Mark Vientos has hit the Singles Under in 19 of his last 25 games at home (+10.15 Units / 28% ROI)
Twins Best Bets Today:
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 26 of their last 40 games (+10.85 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Moneyline in 51 of their last 86 games (+5.80 Units / 5% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the Run Line in 17 of their last 30 games (+4.70 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 9 of their last 14 games (+3.55 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 3 of their last 5 away games (+1.00 Units / 15% ROI)
Mets Best Bets Today:
- The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 33 of their last 48 games (+16.20 Units / 26% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Over in 60 of their last 98 games (+15.10 Units / 13% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 29 of their last 49 games (+11.85 Units / 20% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Over in 38 of their last 66 games (+10.40 Units / 14% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 18 of their last 25 games at home (+10.15 Units / 34% ROI)
Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Twins are 50-56 against the Run Line (-9 Units / -6.68% ROI).
- 58-48 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.15 Units / -2.12% ROI
- 54-48 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.45 Units / 1.26% ROI
- 48-54 when betting on the total runs Under for -11.65 Units / -10.06% ROI
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Mets are 53-54 against the Run Line (-1.7 Units / -1.25% ROI).
- 57-50 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.25 Units / 2.54% ROI
- 56-46 when betting on the total runs Over for +5.2 Units / 4.46% ROI
- 46-56 when betting on the total runs Under for -14.9 Units / -13.01% ROI
Mets vs Twins Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Matt Wallner (MIN) | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -500 |
| Royce Lewis (MIN) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -500 |
| Byron Buxton (MIN) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Pete Alonso (NYM) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Mark Vientos (NYM) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
Mets vs Twins Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Royce Lewis (MIN) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Max Kepler (MIN) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Jose Iglesias (NYM) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Brandon Nimmo (NYM) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +175 |
Mets vs Twins RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Royce Lewis (MIN) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Byron Buxton (MIN) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Pete Alonso (NYM) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| J.D Martinez (NYM) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Max Kepler (MIN) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
Mets vs Twins Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Luis Severino (NYM) | 5.5 +105 | 5.5 -140 |
| Pablo Lopez (MIN) | 6.5 +125 | 6.5 -160 |
Twins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Pablo Lopez has allowed a slugging percentage of just .200 (14 Total Bases / 70 ABs) on elevated fastballs this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .354 — 98th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .129 (9-for-70) against Pablo Lopez’s elevated fastball this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .207 — 98th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a line drive rate of just 18% (29/162) against Pablo Lopez this season — tied for 3rd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 96th Percentile.
Opposing hitters have a chase rate of 36% (216/603) against Pablo Lopez when he’s behind in the count since the 2022 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 172 total IP; League Avg: 25% — 100th Percentile.
Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a line drive rate of just 18% (64/357) against Luis Severino this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — 100th Percentile.
Luis Severino has a first-pitch strike rate of just 42% (20/48) in his last two starts — lowest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 62% — first Percentile.
Luis Severino has thrown inside pitches 43% of the time (217/504) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — highest among among NL Starters; League Avg: 30% — 100th Percentile.
Luis Severino has thrown inside pitches 46% of the time (184/402) with runners in scoring position this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 32% — 98th Percentile.
Twins Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Twins are 15-32 (.319) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .199.
The Twins are 117-1 (.992) when leading entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .947.
The Twins are 43-31 (.581) after a home win since the 2023 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .528.
The Twins are 24-87 (.216) when trailing entering the 7th inning since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .142.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Twins
The Mets are 6-40 (.130) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .056.
The Mets are 12-17 (.414) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .298.
The Mets are just 45-6 (.882) when leading entering the 9th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .944.
The Mets are just 41-11 (.788) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .894.
Twins Hitting Stats & Trends
The Twins are batting .271 against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .249.
Twins hitters have an OPS of .782 (1,299 PA’s) in innings 7-9 this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .686.
The Twins have scored 1.79 runs per game (479/268) in late innings since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 1.45.
Twins hitters have an OPS of .784 (1,883 PA’s) at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .724.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
Mets hitters are slugging .446 on the road this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .392.
Mets hitters are slugging .443 against LHP this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .402.
Mets hitters have 107 extra-base hits out of 267 total hits (40%) against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 34%.
The Mets are batting .267 on the road this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .241.
Twins Pitching Stats & Trends
Twins pitchers have walked 714 of 9,951 batters (7%) since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Twins pitchers have walked 156 of 2,398 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Twins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 28% versus the bottom of the order this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Twins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
Mets pitchers have walked 229 of 2,374 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mets pitchers have walked 407 of 4,103 batters (10%) this season — tied for highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 27% against Mets pitchers since the 2022 season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Mets pitchers have walked 89 of 962 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Mets vs. Twins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Ronny Mauricio (New York Mets): Knee, 60-Day IL
- Drew Smith (New York Mets): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Sean Reid-Foley (New York Mets): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Grant Hartwig (New York Mets): Knee, 7-Day IL
- Tim Locastro (New York Mets): Undisclosed, 60-Day IL
- Starling Marte (New York Mets): Knee, 10-Day IL
- Brooks Raley (New York Mets): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Reed Garrett (New York Mets): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Kodai Senga (New York Mets): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Anthony DeSclafani (Minnesota Twins): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Byron Buxton (Minnesota Twins): Forearm, Day-To-Day
- Chris Paddack (Minnesota Twins): Forearm, 15-Day IL
- Royce Lewis (Minnesota Twins): Groin, 10-Day IL
- Jovani Moran (Minnesota Twins): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Brent Headrick (Minnesota Twins): Forearm, 60-Day IL
- Alex Kirilloff (Minnesota Twins): Back, 10-Day IL
- Jose Miranda (Minnesota Twins): Back, 10-Day IL
- Kyle Farmer (Minnesota Twins): Shoulder, 10-Day IL
- Kody Funderburk (Minnesota Twins): Oblique, 15-Day IL
- Justin Topa (Minnesota Twins): Knee, 60-Day IL
- Jose De Leon (Minnesota Twins): Elbow, Out
Bet now on Twins vs Mets and all games with BetMGM
Bet on MLB Odds at BetMGM
Sportsbook promos are always available at BetMGM. For new customers, check out the sportsbook welcome offer and BetMGM Refer a Friend. For existing customers, there are Odds Boosts, Parlay Boosts, contests and more.
