- The Twins are -105 favorites vs the Red Sox
- Twins vs Red Sox Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Twins / Red Sox TV Channel: TWTV | NESN
The Minnesota Twins (-105) visit Fenway Park to take on the Boston Red Sox (-115) on Friday, May 2, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Boston, MA.
This season, the Twins are 13-19 against the spread (ATS), while the Red Sox are 16-17 ATS.
Twins vs Red Sox Starting Pitchers Today:
- Twins starting pitcher: Joe Ryan 2-2, 3.21 ERA
- Red Sox starting pitcher: Brayan Bello 2-0, 3.28 ERA
Twins vs. Red Sox Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Twins | -1.5 +150 | O 8.5 +105 | -105 |
| Red Sox | +1.5 -185 | U 8.5 -125 | -115 |
Twins vs Red Sox Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Twins will win Friday‘s MLB game with 53.5% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Twins Player Prop Bets Today:
- Ty France has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 9 away games (+18.50 Units / 206% ROI)
- Ty France has hit the RBIs Over in 11 of his last 20 games (+11.90 Units / 60% ROI)
- Carlos Correa has hit the Singles Under in 14 of his last 20 away games (+8.55 Units / 40% ROI)
- Ty France has hit the Total Bases Over in his last 6 games (+7.20 Units / 83% ROI)
- Ty France has hit the Hits Under in 12 of his last 25 away games (+6.70 Units / 27% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Red Sox Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Carlos Narvaez has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 10 games (+23.50 Units / 235% ROI)
- Triston Casas has hit the Runs Under in 21 of his last 25 games (+13.75 Units / 28% ROI)
- Alex Bregman has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 13 of his last 15 games (+10.40 Units / 54% ROI)
- Rafael Devers has hit the RBIs Over in 7 of his last 9 games (+9.95 Units / 111% ROI)
- Brayan Bello has hit the Walks Allowed Over in 18 of his last 25 games (+9.50 Units / 27% ROI)
Twins Best Bets Today:
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Under in 16 of their last 23 games (+9.55 Units / 38% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 12 of their last 16 away games (+8.70 Units / 48% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 16 of their last 25 games (+7.75 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 13 of their last 25 games (+6.15 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the Run Line in 13 of their last 22 games (+5.00 Units / 18% ROI)
Red Sox Best Bets Today:
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 18 of their last 28 games (+10.80 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 12 of their last 15 games (+9.25 Units / 52% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 15 of their last 23 games (+5.55 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 11 of their last 16 games (+5.40 Units / 30% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 8 of their last 11 games (+4.85 Units / 34% ROI)
Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Twins are 16-16 against the Run Line (+0.65 Units / 1.64% ROI).
- 13-19 when betting on the Moneyline for -10.45 Units / -23.75% ROI
- 11-18 when betting on the total runs Over for -8.95 Units / -25.25% ROI
- 18-11 when betting on the total runs Under for +5.9 Units / 16.88% ROI
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Red Sox are 16-17 against the Run Line (+0 Units / 0% ROI).
- 17-16 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.2 Units / -10.61% ROI
- 16-16 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.45 Units / -3.99% ROI
- 16-16 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.4 Units / -3.86% ROI
Red Sox vs Twins Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Rafael Devers (BOS) | 0.5 +270 | 0.5 -350 |
| Wilyer Abreu (BOS) | 0.5 +280 | 0.5 -350 |
| Alex Bregman (BOS) | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -500 |
| Byron Buxton (MIN) | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -500 |
| Jarren Duran (BOS) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -625 |
Red Sox vs Twins Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Rafael Devers (BOS) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Byron Buxton (MIN) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Ty France (MIN) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +175 |
| Ryan Jeffers (MIN) | 0.5 -220 | 0.5 +165 |
| Alex Bregman (BOS) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
Red Sox vs Twins RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Rafael Devers (BOS) | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -165 |
| Wilyer Abreu (BOS) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Byron Buxton (MIN) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Alex Bregman (BOS) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Jarren Duran (BOS) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
Red Sox vs Twins Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Brayan Bello (BOS) | 4.5 -105 | 4.5 -125 |
| Joe Ryan (MIN) | 6.5 +110 | 6.5 -145 |
Twins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Joe Ryan has struck out 38% (30/80) of right-handed batters he faced this season — 3rd best among among AL Starters; League Avg: 22% — 95th Percentile.
Joe Ryan has a strikeout rate of 37% (20 SO in 54 PAs) when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — tied for 2nd best among among AL Starters; League Avg: 23% — 97th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 26% (11/43) against Joe Ryan this season — lowest among among AL Starters; League Avg: 43% — second Percentile.
Joe Ryan has struck out 38% (30/80) of right-handed batters he faced this season — tied for 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 22% — 97th Percentile.
Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents had a groundball rate of 55% (97/175) against Brayan Bello in two-strike counts in the 2024 season — 4th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 45% — 94th Percentile.
Brayan Bello allowed an OBP of .352 (270 PA’s) when going through the lineup the first time in a game in the 2024 season — 4th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .290 — sixth Percentile.
Opponents have a Hard-Hit Rate of just 20% (8/39) against Brayan Bello in late innings since the 2023 season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 141 total IP; League Avg: 39% — 100th Percentile.
Brayan Bello had a strike rate of just 61% (480/788) in two strike counts in the 2024 season — 5th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 65% — eighth Percentile.
Twins Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Twins are just 0-14 (.000) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .083.
The Twins are just 1-84 (.012) when trailing entering the 9th inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .048.
The Twins were just 15-28 (.349) vs top 10 scoring offenses in the 2024 season They play the Royals (12th best runs scored) today.
The Twins are just 16-33 (.327) vs top 10 scoring offenses since last season They play the Red Sox (ninth best runs scored) today.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Twins
The Red Sox are just 0-11 (.000) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .117.
The Red Sox are 58-11 (.841) when they’ve had 10 or more hits since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .749.
The Red Sox are 10-0 (1.000) when they’ve had 10 or more hits this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .749.
The Red Sox are just 5-69 (.068) when trailing entering the 7th inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .139.
Twins Hitting Stats & Trends
The Twins are batting just .302 on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .334.
The Twins batted just .150 with two-strikes in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .172.
Twins hitters slugged just .164 on pitches out of the zone in 2023 — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .211.
Twins hitters struck out 1,274 times in 4,710 PA’s (27%) against RHP in 2023 — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
Red Sox hitters struck out 506 times in 1,816 PA’s (28%) against LHP in the 2024 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Red Sox batted .300 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game in 2023 — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .267.
Red Sox hitters have put just 28% of their swings in play on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Red Sox hitters have put just 32% of their swings in play against LHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Twins Pitching Stats & Trends
Twins pitchers have walked 7% of batters this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Twins pitchers walked 433 of 6,078 batters (7%) in the 2024 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents had a groundball rate of just 41% against Twins pitchers in the 2024 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Twins pitchers have walked 7% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
Red Sox pitchers walked 98 of 1,456 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning in the 2024 season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Red Sox pitchers had a strikeout rate of just 19% with runners in scoring position in the 2024 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Opponents had a miss rate of just 24% against Red Sox pitchers in the 2024 season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Red Sox pitchers have walked 7% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
More MLB Reading:
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