- The Twins are -105 favorites vs the Red Sox
- Twins vs Red Sox Over / Under today: 9.5 Runs
- Twins / Red Sox TV Channel: FS1 | TWTV | NESN
The Minnesota Twins (-105) visit Fenway Park to take on the Boston Red Sox (-115) on Saturday, May 3, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in Boston, MA, MA.
This season, the Twins are 13-20 against the spread (ATS), while the Red Sox are 17-17 ATS.
Twins vs Red Sox Starting Pitchers Today:
- Twins starting pitcher: Bailey Ober 3-1, 4.14 ERA
- Red Sox starting pitcher: Hunter Dobbins 2-0, 2.53 ERA
Twins vs. Red Sox Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Twins | -1.5 +150 | O 9.5 -105 | -105 |
| Red Sox | +1.5 -185 | U 9.5 -115 | -115 |
Twins vs Red Sox Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Red Sox will win Saturday‘s MLB game with 51.0% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Twins Player Prop Bets Today:
- Ty France has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 10 away games (+17.50 Units / 175% ROI)
- Carlos Correa has hit the Singles Under in 15 of his last 20 away games (+10.70 Units / 50% ROI)
- Ty France has hit the Hits Under in 13 of his last 25 away games (+9.45 Units / 38% ROI)
- Brooks Lee has hit the Runs Under in 13 of his last 15 games (+8.90 Units / 29% ROI)
- Ty France has hit the RBIs Over in 10 of his last 20 games (+8.85 Units / 44% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Red Sox Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Carlos Narvaez has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 10 games (+23.50 Units / 235% ROI)
- Triston Casas has hit the Runs Under in 18 of his last 20 games (+14.50 Units / 36% ROI)
- Alex Bregman has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 14 of his last 15 games (+12.65 Units / 66% ROI)
- Rafael Devers has hit the RBIs Over in 8 of his last 10 games (+11.25 Units / 112% ROI)
- Wilyer Abreu has hit the Hits Under in 8 of his last 10 games at home (+9.70 Units / 97% ROI)
Twins Best Bets Today:
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Under in 17 of their last 24 games (+10.55 Units / 40% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 13 of their last 17 away games (+9.95 Units / 52% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 17 of their last 26 games (+8.75 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 13 of their last 26 games (+6.15 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Team Total Under in 12 of their last 18 away games (+5.35 Units / 26% ROI)
Red Sox Best Bets Today:
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 18 of their last 29 games (+10.80 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 12 of their last 16 games (+8.25 Units / 44% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 11 of their last 17 games (+4.30 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 15 of their last 24 games (+4.25 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the Run Line in 6 of their last 11 games (+2.70 Units / 22% ROI)
Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Twins are 16-17 against the Run Line (-0.35 Units / -0.86% ROI).
- 13-20 when betting on the Moneyline for -11.45 Units / -25.44% ROI
- 11-19 when betting on the total runs Over for -10.05 Units / -27.5% ROI
- 19-11 when betting on the total runs Under for +6.9 Units / 19.14% ROI
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Red Sox are 17-17 against the Run Line (+1 Units / 2.36% ROI).
- 18-16 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.2 Units / -8.37% ROI
- 16-17 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.55 Units / -6.81% ROI
- 17-16 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.4 Units / -1.07% ROI
Red Sox vs Twins Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Rafael Devers (BOS) | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -300 |
| Byron Buxton (MIN) | 0.5 +290 | 0.5 -350 |
| Alex Bregman (BOS) | 0.5 +320 | 0.5 -400 |
| Jarren Duran (BOS) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Trevor Larnach (MIN) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -700 |
Red Sox vs Twins Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Ty France (MIN) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Wilyer Abreu (BOS) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +175 |
| Rafael Devers (BOS) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +180 |
| Trevor Larnach (MIN) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +180 |
| Brooks Lee (MIN) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +180 |
Red Sox vs Twins RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Rafael Devers (BOS) | 0.5 +115 | 0.5 -150 |
| Wilyer Abreu (BOS) | 0.5 +120 | 0.5 -155 |
| Alex Bregman (BOS) | 0.5 +120 | 0.5 -155 |
| Byron Buxton (MIN) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -175 |
| Jarren Duran (BOS) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -190 |
Red Sox vs Twins Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Hunter Dobbins (BOS) | 3.5 -150 | 3.5 +115 |
| Bailey Ober (MIN) | 5.5 +125 | 5.5 -160 |
Twins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting .319 against Bailey Ober non-fastballs this season — third worst among qualified SPs– third Percentile. Opponents batted just .137 (40-for-293) against him non-fastballs last season — best among qualified SPs– 100th Percentile.
Bailey Ober has allowed a .528 SLG non-fastballs this season — fifth worst among qualified SPs– sixth Percentile. He allowed a SLG of just .249 non-fastballs last season — second best among qualified SPs– 98th Percentile.
Opponents batted just .137 (40-for-293) against Bailey Ober’s non-fastballs in the 2024 season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .217 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents had a groundball rate of just 34% (161/469) against Bailey Ober in the 2024 season — 3rd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — fifth Percentile.
Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Hunter Dobbins has limited playing time.
Twins Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Twins are just 16-34 (.320) vs top 10 scoring offenses since last season They play the Red Sox (ninth best runs scored) today.
The Twins are just 1-85 (.012) when trailing entering the 9th inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .048.
The Twins are just 1-6 (.143) vs top 10 scoring offenses this season They play the Red Sox (ninth best runs scored) today.
The Twins are just 3-18 (.143) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .289.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Twins
The Red Sox are 11-0 (1.000) when they’ve had 10 or more hits this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .749.
The Red Sox were just 5-58 (.079) when trailing entering the 7th inning in the 2024 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .143.
The Red Sox are just 14-140 (.091) when trailing entering the 7th inning since the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .139.
The Red Sox were just 38-43 (.469) at home in the 2024 season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .521.
Twins Hitting Stats & Trends
The Twins are batting just .301 on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .334.
Twins hitters are averaging 4.21 pitches per plate appearance against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.89.
The Twins batted just .150 with two-strikes in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .172.
The Twins are batting just .279 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .337.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
The Red Sox are batting .379 in hitter’s counts since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .336.
Red Sox hitters struck out 506 times in 1,816 PA’s (28%) against LHP in the 2024 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Red Sox hitters have put just 32% of their swings in play against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
The Red Sox batted .300 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game in 2023 — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .267.
Twins Pitching Stats & Trends
Twins pitchers walked 433 of 6,078 batters (7%) in the 2024 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Twins pitchers have walked 7% of batters since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Twins pitchers had a strikeout rate of 25% in the 2024 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Twins pitchers have walked 7% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
Red Sox pitchers have walked 7% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents had a miss rate of just 24% against Red Sox pitchers in the 2024 season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 24% against Red Sox pitchers since last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 44% against Red Sox pitchers since the 2023 season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
More MLB Reading:
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