Twins vs Red Sox Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Sep 22

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Boston Red Sox's Masataka Yoshida bats during the first inning of a baseball game against the Minnesota Twins, Tuesday, June 20, 2023, in Minneapolis.
(AP Photo/Abbie Parr)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Sep 22, 2024, 11:02 AM
  • The Twins are -130 favorites vs the Red Sox
  • Twins vs Red Sox Over / Under today: 7.5 Runs
  • Twins / Red Sox TV Channel: BSNO | NESN | MLBN

The Minnesota Twins (-140) visit Fenway Park to take on the Boston Red Sox (+120) on Sunday, September 22, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 12:35pm EDT in Boston, MA.

This season, the Twins are against the spread (ATS), while the Red Sox are ATS.

Twins vs Red Sox Starting Pitchers Today:

  • Twins starting pitcher: Zebby Matthews 1-3, 6.31 ERA
  • Red Sox starting pitcher: Kutter Crawford 8-15, 4.21 ERA

Twins vs. Red Sox Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Twins-1.5 +125O 7.5 -120-140
Red Sox +1.5 -155U 7.5 +100+120

Twins vs Red Sox Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Twins will win Sunday‘s MLB game with 51.3% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.


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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Twins Player Prop Bets Today:

  • Pablo Lopez has hit the Walks Allowed Under in 23 of his last 30 games (+13.25 Units / 30% ROI)
  • Kyle Farmer has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 5 games (+11.60 Units / 232% ROI)
  • Royce Lewis has hit the Runs Under in 16 of his last 19 games (+11.60 Units / 43% ROI)
  • Matt Wallner has hit the Total Bases Over in 25 of his last 38 games (+8.85 Units / 18% ROI)
  • Royce Lewis has hit the RBIs Under in 10 of his last 11 games (+8.40 Units / 40% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Red Sox Player Prop Best Bets Today:

  • Jarren Duran has hit the Home Runs Over in 7 of his last 34 games (+12.80 Units / 38% ROI)
  • Jarren Duran has hit the RBIs Under in 18 of his last 21 games at home (+12.35 Units / 29% ROI)
  • Tyler O’Neill has hit the Singles Under in his last 12 games (+12.00 Units / 55% ROI)
  • Jarren Duran has hit the Total Bases Under in 17 of his last 22 games (+11.15 Units / 40% ROI)
  • Tyler O’Neill has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 17 of his last 23 games (+10.85 Units / 40% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 49 of their last 88 games (+12.00 Units / 12% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 15 of their last 23 games (+7.75 Units / 29% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Twins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 10 of their last 16 away games (+3.70 Units / 20% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Twins have covered the Run Line in 4 of their last 6 games (+2.55 Units / 33% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in their last 49 games (+49.00 Units / 91% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 21 of their last 29 games (+13.00 Units / 40% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 20 of their last 28 games (+11.05 Units / 33% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 16 of their last 23 games (+9.45 Units / 37% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have covered the Run Line in 6 of their last 10 games at home (+3.15 Units / 28% ROI)

Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Twins are against the Run Line ( Units / ROI).

  • away moneyline record when betting on the Moneyline for ML units Units / ML ROI ROI
  • away total over record when betting on the total runs Over for over units Units / over ROI ROI
  • away total under record when betting on the total runs Under for under units Units / under ROI ROI

Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Red Sox are against the Run Line ( Units / ROI).

  • home moneyline record when betting on the Moneyline for ML units Units / ML ROI ROI
  • home total over record when betting on the total runs Over for over units Units / over ROI ROI
  • home total under record when betting on the total runs Under for under units Units / under ROI ROI

Red Sox vs Twins Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Byron Buxton (MIN) 0.5 +260 0.5 -350
Matt Wallner (MIN) 0.5 +360 0.5 -500
Royce Lewis (MIN) 0.5 +400 0.5 -550
Carlos Correa (MIN) 0.5 +525 0.5 -750
Wilyer Abreu (BOS) 0.5 +600 0.5 -900

Red Sox vs Twins Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Masataka Yoshida (BOS) 0.5 -275 0.5 +195
Byron Buxton (MIN) 0.5 -250 0.5 +185
Royce Lewis (MIN) 0.5 -210 0.5 +155
Ryan Jeffers (MIN) 0.5 -190 0.5 +140
Trevor Larnach (MIN) 0.5 -185 0.5 +140

Red Sox vs Twins RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Byron Buxton (MIN) 0.5 +145 0.5 -190
Royce Lewis (MIN) 0.5 +165 0.5 -225
Carlos Correa (MIN) 0.5 +165 0.5 -225
Masataka Yoshida (BOS) 0.5 +180 0.5 -250
Matt Wallner (MIN) 0.5 +190 0.5 -250

Red Sox vs Twins Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Pablo Lopez (MIN) 6.5 -150 6.5 +115
Nick Pivetta (BOS) 6.5 +100 6.5 -135

Opponents have a first pitch chase rate of 25% (79/317) against Pablo Lopez this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 16% — 100th Percentile.

Opposing hitters have a chase rate of 35% (135/386) against Pablo Lopez when he’s behind in the count since last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 126 total IP; League Avg: 25% — 99th Percentile.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 49% (92/188) against Pablo Lopez in two-strike counts this season — 10th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 45% — 83rd Percentile.

Right-handed hitters have a miss rate of 30% (226/745) against Pablo Lopez this season — 10th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — 84th Percentile.

Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Kutter Crawford has allowed a slugging percentage of 1.011 (88 Total Bases / 87 ABs) when behind in the count this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .590 — first Percentile.

Nick Pivetta has allowed a slugging percentage of .783 (307 Total Bases / 392 ABs) in non-two strike counts since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 126 total IP; League Avg: .573 — 0 Percentile.

Kutter Crawford has allowed an OPS of 1.502 (108 PA’s) when he’s behind in the count this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 1.033 — first Percentile.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 33% (58/177) against Kutter Crawford in two-strike counts this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 45% — first Percentile.

Twins Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox

The Twins are 138-2 (.986) when leading entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .949.

The Twins are 62-26 (.705) when they’ve scored in the first inning since the 2023 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .627.

The Twins are just 8-14 (.364) after a loss as underdogs this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .434.

The Twins are 206-5 (.976) when leading entering the 9th inning since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .951.

Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Twins

The Red Sox are just 32-135 (.192) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .271.

The Red Sox are just 4-55 (.068) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .143.

The Red Sox are just 16-65 (.198) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .275.

The Red Sox are just 3-138 (.021) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .050.

Twins hitters have an OPS of .724 (5,675 PA’s) in innings 7-9 since the 2022 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .694.

Twins hitters are slugging .447 at home since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .414.

Twins hitters are slugging .229 on pitches out of the zone this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .205.

Twins hitters have an OPS of .757 (3,777 PA’s) in innings 7-9 since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .699.

The Red Sox are batting .389 in hitter’s counts this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .339.

Red Sox hitters have 495 strikeouts in 1,756 PA’s (28%) against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Red Sox hitters have been successful in just 68% of their sacrifice bunt attempts since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 79%.

Red Sox hitters have 863 strikeouts in 3,334 PA’s (26%) against LHP since last season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Twins pitchers have walked 403 of 5,733 batters (7%) this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Twins pitchers have walked 1,314 of 17,803 batters (7%) since the 2022 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Twins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Twins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes since last season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.

Red Sox pitchers have walked 89 of 1,384 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.

Opponents have a miss rate of just 24% against Red Sox pitchers this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

Red Sox pitchers have walked 437 of 5,860 batters (7%) this season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Red Sox pitchers have walked 194 of 2,819 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Red Sox vs. Twins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Boston Red Sox – No Injuries Reported
  • Minnesota Twins – No Injuries Reported

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.