- The Twins are -140 favorites vs the Royals
- Twins vs Royals Over / Under today: 8 Runs
- Twins / Royals TV Channel: FOX
The Minnesota Twins (-140) visit Ewing M. Kauffman Stadium to take on the Kansas City Royals (+120) on Saturday, September 7, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 7:15pm EDT in Kansas City, MO.
This season, the Twins are 76-65 against the spread (ATS), while the Royals are 78-64 ATS.
Twins vs Royals Starting Pitchers Today:
- Twins starting pitcher: Bailey Ober 12-6, 3.96 ERA
- Royals starting pitcher: Alec Marsh 7-8, 4.74 ERA
Twins vs. Royals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Twins | -1.5 +125 | O 8 -110 | -140 |
| Royals | +1.5 -150 | U 8 -110 | +120 |
Twins vs Royals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Twins will win Saturday‘s MLB game with 57.8% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Twins Player Prop Bets Today:
- Christian Vazquez has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 29 games (+21.50 Units / 74% ROI)
- Jose Miranda has hit the RBIs Under in 26 of his last 29 games (+19.85 Units / 31% ROI)
- Matt Wallner has hit the Total Bases Over in 30 of his last 40 games (+17.40 Units / 34% ROI)
- Matt Wallner has hit the Hits Over in 30 of his last 40 games (+17.35 Units / 34% ROI)
- Jose Miranda has hit the Runs Under in 24 of his last 29 games (+15.50 Units / 30% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Royals players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Royals Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Bobby Witt Jr. has hit the Home Runs Over in 14 of his last 48 games (+18.35 Units / 38% ROI)
- Salvador Perez has hit the Runs Under in 28 of his last 37 games (+14.25 Units / 26% ROI)
- Kyle Isbel has hit the Hits Under in 25 of his last 43 games (+12.75 Units / 30% ROI)
- Salvador Perez has hit the RBIs Under in 15 of his last 17 games (+11.70 Units / 39% ROI)
- Kyle Isbel has hit the Total Bases Under in 25 of his last 43 games (+11.50 Units / 26% ROI)
Twins Best Bets Today:
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 43 of their last 75 games (+11.35 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 12 of their last 16 away games (+7.35 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Moneyline in 69 of their last 121 games (+3.90 Units / 2% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 11 of their last 21 away games (+1.10 Units / 4% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 5 of their last 9 away games (+0.80 Units / 8% ROI)
Royals Best Bets Today:
- The Kansas City Royals have covered the Run Line in 41 of their last 71 games at home (+11.99 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Moneyline in 43 of their last 71 games at home (+9.70 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 37 of their last 71 games at home (+8.55 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Over in 31 of their last 52 games at home (+7.70 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Over in 22 of their last 38 games (+6.65 Units / 16% ROI)
Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Twins are 65-76 against the Run Line (-14.5 Units / -8.1% ROI).
- 76-65 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.05 Units / -2.54% ROI
- 71-63 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.95 Units / 1.27% ROI
- 63-71 when betting on the total runs Under for -15.6 Units / -10.09% ROI
Royals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Royals are 78-64 against the Run Line (+3.49 Units / 1.82% ROI).
- 77-65 when betting on the Moneyline for +8 Units / 4.47% ROI
- 64-72 when betting on the total runs Over for -14.9 Units / -9.66% ROI
- 72-64 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.95 Units / 0.61% ROI
Royals vs Twins Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bobby Witt Jr. (KC) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -700 |
| Royce Lewis (MIN) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
| Matt Wallner (MIN) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
| Salvador Perez (KC) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
| MJ Melendez (KC) | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
Royals vs Twins Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Willi Castro (MIN) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Ryan Jeffers (MIN) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Tommy Pham (KC) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Salvador Perez (KC) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +155 |
| Maikel Garcia (KC) | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +140 |
Royals vs Twins RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Royce Lewis (MIN) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
| Jose Miranda (MIN) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -200 |
| Salvador Perez (KC) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -225 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. (KC) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Ryan Jeffers (MIN) | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
Royals vs Twins Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bailey Ober (MIN) | 4.5 -140 | 4.5 +105 |
| Alec Marsh (KC) | 4.5 -115 | 4.5 -110 |
Twins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting just .138 (31-for-225) against Bailey Ober’s non-fastballs this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .217 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .177 (20-for-113) against Bailey Ober when going through the lineup the third time in a game this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .256 — 98th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .417 (25 GB hits out of 60 GBs) against Bailey Ober with runners in scoring position since the 2022 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 185 total IP; League Avg: .238 — 0 Percentile.
Bailey Ober has allowed a slugging percentage of .547 (58 Total Bases / 106 ABs) on elevated fastballs this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .353 — second Percentile.
Royals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a Hard-Hit Rate of just 27% (51/186) against Alec Marsh with two-strikes since last season — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 120 total IP; League Avg: 36% — 98th Percentile.
Alec Marsh has allowed a slugging percentage of .559 (151 Total Bases / 270 ABs) versus the top of the order since last season — 6th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 120 total IP; League Avg: .435 — fourth Percentile.
Alec Marsh has walked 39 of 329 batters (12%) when going through the lineup the second time in a game since last season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 120 total IP; League Avg: 7% — second Percentile.
Alec Marsh has allowed a slugging percentage of .483 (188 Total Bases / 389 ABs) on non-fastballs since last season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 120 total IP; League Avg: .376 — third Percentile.
Twins Keys to the Game vs. the Royals
The Twins are 201-5 (.976) when leading entering the 9th inning since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .950.
The Twins are 57-3 (.950) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .897.
The Twins are 133-2 (.985) when leading entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .948.
The Twins are 26-99 (.208) when trailing entering the 7th inning since the 2023 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .142.
Royals Keys to the Game vs. the Twins
The Royals are just 24-102 (.190) when their opponents score in the first inning since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .362.
The Royals are just 20-61 (.247) when their opponents score in the first inning since the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .376.
The Royals are just 43-45 (.489) when they’ve scored in the first inning since the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .624.
The Royals are just 48-90 (.348) after a road loss since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .463.
Twins Hitting Stats & Trends
Twins hitters have an OPS of .764 (1,693 PA’s) in innings 7-9 this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .688.
The Twins are batting .165 on pitches out of the zone this season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .152.
Twins hitters have an OBP of .326 (8,611 PA’s) against RHP since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .316.
Twins hitters have drawn 91 walks in 1,429 PA’s (6%) against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Royals Hitting Stats & Trends
Royals hitters have just 976 strikeouts in 5,251 PA’s (19%) this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Royals won only 28% of their road games in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
The Royals won just 46% of games in which they have scored in at least three different innings on the road in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 71%.
Royals hitters have an OBP of just .287 (5,555 PA’s) on the road since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .313.
Twins Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 40% against Twins pitchers this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Twins pitchers have walked 72 of 1,252 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Twins pitchers have walked 360 of 5,231 batters (7%) this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Twins pitchers have walked 803 of 11,259 batters (7%) since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Royals Pitching Stats & Trends
Royals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% in late innings this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Royals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% in close and late situations this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Royals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 41% with two-strikes since last season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Royals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 22% in close and late situations since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Royals vs. Twins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Kansas City Royals – No Injuries Reported
- Minnesota Twins – No Injuries Reported
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