- The Yankees are -115 favorites vs the Rays
- Yankees vs Rays Over / Under today: 8 Runs
- Yankees / Rays TV Channel: YES | BSUN
The New York Yankees (-120) visit Tropicana Field to take on the Tampa Bay Rays (+100) on Thursday, July 11, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 6:50pm EDT in St. Petersburg, FL.
This season, the Yankees are 56-38 against the spread (ATS), while the Rays are 43-49 ATS.
Yankees vs Rays Starting Pitchers Today:
- Yankees starting pitcher: Nestor Cortes 4-7, 3.42 ERA
- Rays starting pitcher: Shane Baz 0-1, 4.50 ERA
Yankees vs. Rays Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Yankees | -1.5 +140 | O 8 -105 | -120 |
| Rays | +1.5 -165 | U 8 -115 | +100 |
Yankees vs Rays Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Yankees will win Thursday‘s MLB game with 53.9% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
Bet now on Yankees vs Rays and all games with BetMGM
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Yankees players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Yankees Player Prop Bets Today:
- Aaron Judge has hit the Home Runs Over in 22 of his last 45 games (+23.90 Units / 53% ROI)
- Aaron Judge has hit the Runs Over in 37 of his last 47 games (+22.30 Units / 34% ROI)
- Aaron Judge has hit the Hits Over in 35 of his last 47 games (+18.15 Units / 19% ROI)
- Aaron Judge has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 33 of his last 47 games (+17.95 Units / 33% ROI)
- Aaron Judge has hit the Total Bases Over in 30 of his last 46 games (+13.55 Units / 26% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rays players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Rays Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Ben Rortvedt has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 7 games (+20.00 Units / 286% ROI)
- Yandy Diaz has hit the Total Bases Over in 17 of his last 23 games (+12.75 Units / 53% ROI)
- Yandy Diaz has hit the Hits Over in 12 of his last 18 games (+12.60 Units / 56% ROI)
- Jonny Deluca has hit the Runs Under in his last 12 games (+12.00 Units / 45% ROI)
- Yandy Diaz has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 15 of his last 19 games (+10.10 Units / 39% ROI)
Yankees Best Bets Today:
- The New York Yankees have covered the Run Line in 35 of their last 60 games (+15.00 Units / 21% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 25 of their last 37 games (+13.55 Units / 33% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 37 of their last 60 games (+11.95 Units / 16% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 42 of their last 71 games (+9.44 Units / 11% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the Moneyline in 31 of their last 50 away games (+7.20 Units / 12% ROI)
Rays Best Bets Today:
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 58 of their last 89 games (+25.15 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Team Total Under in 48 of their last 83 games (+9.35 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have covered the Run Line in 14 of their last 21 games (+6.10 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Game Total Under in 10 of their last 16 games (+5.75 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Moneyline in 11 of their last 19 games (+3.10 Units / 14% ROI)
Yankees Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Yankees are 50-44 against the Run Line (+11.3 Units / 10.15% ROI).
- 56-38 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.7 Units / 1.24% ROI
- 48-42 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.4 Units / 1.35% ROI
- 42-48 when betting on the total runs Under for -10.85 Units / -10.5% ROI
Rays Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Rays are 43-49 against the Run Line (-9.65 Units / -7.93% ROI).
- 45-47 when betting on the Moneyline for -11.35 Units / -9.85% ROI
- 44-45 when betting on the total runs Over for -5.2 Units / -5.15% ROI
- 45-44 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.2 Units / -3.16% ROI
Rays vs Yankees Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Aaron Judge (NYY) | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
| Randy Arozarena (TB) | 0.5 +300 | 0.5 -400 |
| Juan Soto (NYY) | 0.5 +333 | 0.5 -450 |
| Jose Siri (TB) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| Yandy Diaz (TB) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
Rays vs Yankees Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Aaron Judge (NYY) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Alex Verdugo (NYY) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Randy Arozarena (TB) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Anthony Volpe (NYY) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Gleyber Torres (NYY) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
Rays vs Yankees RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Aaron Judge (NYY) | 0.5 +100 | 0.5 -130 |
| Randy Arozarena (TB) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Isaac Paredes (TB) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Juan Soto (NYY) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Ben Rice (NYY) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
Rays vs Yankees Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nestor Cortes (NYY) | 5.5 -135 | 5.5 +105 |
| Shane Baz (TB) | 5.5 +130 | 5.5 -175 |
Yankees Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting just .128 (5-for-39) against Nestor Cortes on low fastballs this season — tied for best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .259 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 30% (63/210) against Nestor Cortes in two-strike counts since last season — tied for lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 100 total IP; League Avg: 45% — first Percentile.
Nestor Cortes has allowed a slugging percentage of .519 (83 Total Bases / 160 ABs) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .366 — fourth Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 32% (84/260) against Nestor Cortes this season — tied for 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — fourth Percentile.
Rays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 28% (5/18) against Shane Baz this month (1 games) — tied for 14th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 3 total IP; League Avg: 42% — ninth Percentile.
Opponents have a chase percentage of just 17% (7/42) against Shane Baz this month (1 games) — tied for 7th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 3 total IP; League Avg: 28% — fifth Percentile.
Yankees Keys to the Game vs. the Rays
The Yankees are 11-13 (.458) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .246.
The Yankees are 139-37 (.790) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .698.
The Yankees are 24-20 (.545) after a win as underdogs since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .413.
The Yankees are 18-8 (.692) after a road win this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .454.
Rays Keys to the Game vs. the Yankees
The Rays are 23-11 (.676) when tied entering the 8th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Rays are 23-11 (.676) when tied entering the 7th inning since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Rays are 43-19 (.694) vs bottom 10 scoring offenses since last season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .560.
The Rays are just 20-40 (.333) after a win as underdogs since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .413.
Yankees Hitting Stats & Trends
Yankees hitters have drawn 106 walks in 950 PA’s (11%) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Yankees hitters have drawn 380 walks in 3,667 PA’s (10%) against LHP since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Yankees hitters have an OPS of .754 (3,667 PA’s) against LHP since the 2022 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .725.
Yankees hitters have drawn 221 walks in 2,134 PA’s (10%) against starting pitchers this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Rays Hitting Stats & Trends
The Rays scored first in 64% of their games in the 2023 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
26% of Rays hitters strikeouts have come on 95+ MPH fastballs this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Rays are batting just .232 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .266.
Rays hitters have put just 31% of their swings in play on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 35%.
Yankees Pitching Stats & Trends
Yankees pitchers have a strikeout rate of 36% with runners in scoring position this month (8 games) — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 21%.
The Yankees have won 47% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 27% against Yankees pitchers since the 2022 season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Yankees pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 32% of their games this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
Rays Pitching Stats & Trends
The Rays pitchers allowed their opponents to score first in just 36% of their games in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 39% against Rays pitchers this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
The Rays pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 33% of their games on the road since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
The Rays pitchers allowed division opponents to score first in just 29% of their games in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Rays vs. Yankees Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Taylor Walls (Tampa Bay Rays): Hip, 10-Day IL
- Jonny DeLuca (Tampa Bay Rays): Hand, 10-Day IL
- Jeffrey Springs (Tampa Bay Rays): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Shane Baz (Tampa Bay Rays): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Jonathan Aranda (Tampa Bay Rays): Finger, 10-Day IL
- Taj Bradley (Tampa Bay Rays): Pectoral, 15-Day IL
- Josh Lowe (Tampa Bay Rays): Oblique, 10-Day IL
- Junior Caminero (Tampa Bay Rays): Quadriceps, Day-To-Day
- Garrett Acton (Tampa Bay Rays): Elbow, Out
- Drew Rasmussen (Tampa Bay Rays): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Shane McClanahan (Tampa Bay Rays): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Wander Franco (Tampa Bay Rays): Personal, Suspension
- Anthony Volpe (New York Yankees): Illness, Day-To-Day
- Lou Trivino (New York Yankees): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Scott Effross (New York Yankees): Back, 60-Day IL
- Jasson Dominguez (New York Yankees): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Gerrit Cole (New York Yankees): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- McKinley Moore (New York Yankees): Knee, 15-Day IL
- Ryan Weber (New York Yankees): Forearm, Out
- DJ LeMahieu (New York Yankees): Foot, 10-Day IL
- Oscar Gonzalez (New York Yankees): Orbital, Out
- Jorbit Vivas (New York Yankees): Orbital, Out
- Tommy Kahnle (New York Yankees): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Oswald Peraza (New York Yankees): Shoulder, 10-Day IL
Bet now on Yankees vs Rays and all games with BetMGM
Bet on MLB Odds at BetMGM
Sportsbook promos are always available at BetMGM. For new customers, check out the sportsbook welcome offer and BetMGM Refer a Friend. For existing customers, there are Odds Boosts, Parlay Boosts, contests and more.
