- The Yankees are -185 favorites vs the Red Sox
- Yankees vs Red Sox Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Yankees / Red Sox TV Channel: NESN | YES | MLBN
The New York Yankees (-180) visit Fenway Park to take on the Boston Red Sox (+145) on Sunday, June 15, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 1:35pm EDT in Boston, MA.
This season, the Yankees are 42-27 against the spread (ATS), while the Red Sox are 35-36 ATS.
Yankees vs Red Sox Starting Pitchers Today:
- Yankees starting pitcher: Max Fried 9-1, 1.84 ERA
- Red Sox starting pitcher: Brayan Bello 2-1, 3.98 ERA
Yankees vs. Red Sox Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Yankees | -1.5 -110 | O 8.5 -110 | -180 |
| Red Sox | +1.5 -110 | U 8.5 -110 | +145 |
Yankees vs Red Sox Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Yankees will win Sunday‘s MLB game with 62.9% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Yankees players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Yankees Player Prop Bets Today:
- Aaron Judge has hit the Hits Over in 17 of his last 25 away games (+13.65 Units / 41% ROI)
- Austin Wells has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 5 games (+10.10 Units / 202% ROI)
- Aaron Judge has hit the Total Bases Over in 18 of his last 25 away games (+10.05 Units / 33% ROI)
- Jazz Chisholm has hit the Runs Over in 14 of his last 25 games (+8.45 Units / 34% ROI)
- Max Fried has hit the Earned Runs Under in 9 of his last 10 games (+8.35 Units / 60% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Red Sox Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Rob Refsnyder has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 8 games at home (+13.70 Units / 171% ROI)
- Rob Refsnyder has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 12 of his last 15 games (+8.80 Units / 47% ROI)
- Rafael Devers has hit the Total Bases Under in 9 of his last 10 games at home (+8.40 Units / 64% ROI)
- Carlos Narvaez has hit the Runs Over in 7 of his last 9 games (+8.25 Units / 92% ROI)
- Rafael Devers has hit the Walks Over in 13 of his last 20 games at home (+7.65 Units / 34% ROI)
Yankees Best Bets Today:
- The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Under in 33 of their last 54 games (+11.12 Units / 19% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 40 of their last 69 games (+8.55 Units / 10% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 39 of their last 69 games (+8.00 Units / 7% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 29 of their last 50 games (+6.01 Units / 10% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the Moneyline in 23 of their last 34 games (+5.60 Units / 10% ROI)
Red Sox Best Bets Today:
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 31 of their last 54 games (+7.75 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 22 of their last 35 games at home (+7.60 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 22 of their last 35 games at home (+7.10 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 22 of their last 36 games at home (+6.51 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 7 games (+6.40 Units / 81% ROI)
Yankees Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Yankees are 33-36 against the Run Line (-2.95 Units / -3.72% ROI).
- 42-27 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.05 Units / 2.75% ROI
- 30-37 when betting on the total runs Over for -10 Units / -13.28% ROI
- 37-30 when betting on the total runs Under for +4.07 Units / 5.32% ROI
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Red Sox are 35-36 against the Run Line (+0.35 Units / 0.39% ROI).
- 36-36 when betting on the Moneyline for -8.41 Units / -8.79% ROI
- 33-38 when betting on the total runs Over for -8.87 Units / -11.17% ROI
- 38-33 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.85 Units / 2.34% ROI
Red Sox vs Yankees Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Aaron Judge (NYY) | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -300 |
| Trevor Story (BOS) | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -900 |
| Ben Rice (NYY) | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -900 |
| Rafael Devers (BOS) | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Trent Grisham (NYY) | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -1100 |
Red Sox vs Yankees Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Ben Rice (NYY) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Romy Gonzalez (BOS) | 0.5 -220 | 0.5 +160 |
| Jasson Dominguez (NYY) | 0.5 -220 | 0.5 +160 |
| Trent Grisham (NYY) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Anthony Volpe (NYY) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +155 |
Red Sox vs Yankees RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Aaron Judge (NYY) | 0.5 +110 | 0.5 -145 |
| Cody Bellinger (NYY) | 0.5 +115 | 0.5 -150 |
| Anthony Volpe (NYY) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Jazz Chisholm Jr (NYY) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Ben Rice (NYY) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -200 |
Red Sox vs Yankees Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Brayan Bello (BOS) | 4.5 +115 | 4.5 -150 |
| Max Fried (NYY) | 6.5 +120 | 6.5 -155 |
Yankees Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
12 of Max Fried’s 26 breaking pitch strikeouts (46%) have been backdoor this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 15% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents had a groundball rate of 59% (286/483) against Max Fried in the 2024 season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — 98th Percentile.
Opponents had a groundball rate of 62% (113/183) against Max Fried in two-strike counts in the 2024 season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 45% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents batted just .153 (13-for-85) against Max Fried on low fastballs in the 2024 season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .269 — 100th Percentile.
Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents had a groundball rate of 63% (109/173) against Brayan Bello in two-strike counts in 2023 — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 45% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents batted .269 (64-for-238) against Brayan Bello when going through the lineup the first time in a game in the 2024 season — 9th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .231 — 15th Percentile.
Brayan Bello had a strike rate of just 61% (480/788) in two strike counts in the 2024 season — 5th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 65% — eighth Percentile.
Opponents have a swing rate of just 36% (190/523) against Brayan Bello on elevated fastballs since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 92 total IP; League Avg: 49% — second Percentile.
Yankees Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Yankees were 48-10 (.828) when they scored in the first inning in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .641.
The Yankees were 50-31 (.617) on the road in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .478.
The Yankees are 71-46 (.607) on the road since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .468.
The Yankees are 96-32 (.750) when they’ve scored in the first inning since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .626.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Yankees
The Red Sox are just 16-153 (.095) when trailing entering the 7th inning since the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .140.
The Red Sox were just 18-69 (.207) when they scored 4 or fewer runs in the 2024 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .276.
The Red Sox are just 4-170 (.023) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .049.
The Red Sox are just 48-166 (.224) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since the 2023 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .277.
Yankees Hitting Stats & Trends
Yankees hitters drew 221 walks in 1,808 PA’s (12%) against LHP in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Yankees hitters have a swing rate of just 44% against LHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Yankees hitters have drawn walks in 12% of their PA’s against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Yankees hitters have drawn walks in 12% of their PA’s when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
The Red Sox batted .182 on pitches out of the zone in 2023 — best in MLB; League Avg: .151.
The Red Sox are batting .373 in hitter’s counts since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .337.
Red Sox hitters struck out 506 times in 1,816 PA’s (28%) against LHP in the 2024 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Red Sox batted .382 in hitter’s counts in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .338.
Yankees Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Yankees pitchers this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Yankees pitchers have a strikeout rate of 47% with two-strikes this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Opponents had a miss rate of 27% against Yankees pitchers in the 2024 season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Yankees pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents had a miss rate of just 24% against Red Sox pitchers in the 2024 season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Red Sox pitchers walked 98 of 1,456 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning in the 2024 season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Red Sox pitchers since the 2023 season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Red Sox pitchers have 376 three-pitch strikeouts since last season — 4th most in MLB.
More MLB Reading:
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