- Inter Miami is a -1.5-goal favorite against St. Louis.
- Miami suffered their first home defeat midweek with Lionel Messi in the lineup.
- Bettors should look to this prop market for Saturday’s fixture.
Seeking their third win in their last four matches, Inter Miami welcomes St. Louis to Chase Field on Saturday.
Miami, despite fielding a full-strength Starting XI in the midweek, lost 3-1 at home to Atlanta United. That put an end to a two-match winning streak and a 10-match unbeaten run.
In good news for Miami, they’ll get a chance to quickly right the ship against a St. Louis side that has lost three straight league fixtures.
Here’s a look at the MLS odds and my prediction for Saturday’s fixture.
MLS Odds – Inter Miami vs. St. Louis
- Inter Miami Moneyline: -250
- St. Louis Moneyline: +525
- Draw Moneyline: +400
- Over/Under: 3.5 Goals (+115/-160)
MLS Predictions – Inter Miami vs. St. Louis
Inter Miami 2H Team Total Over 1.5 Goals (+135)
Miami has consistently shown that, at home, they prefer to turn the jets on after halftime.
It showed once again in the midweek against Atlanta, who limited Miami to 0.47 expected goals and zero shots on target in the first half.
Comparatively, Miami generated 0.33 expected goals and 0.7 post-shot expected goals in the second 45 minutes, per fbref.com.
With Miami playing on short rest and St. Louis operating with a full week between games, bettors should expect a similar script in the first half.
Plus, St. Louis has shown they can limit teams early but tend to fall apart late away from home.
In a recent trip to FC Cincinnati, St. Louis surrendered 2.2 non-penalty expected goals, 1.8 of which came in the second half.
All told, St. Louis has surrendered 9.6 npxGA on the road this season. Of that total, 60.5% came after halftime.
Sample all six of their road games to date and bettors will find St. Louis allowed at least two second-half goals in four matches with only one second-half clean sheet.
Miami is coming off a match where they only scored one second-half goal, but there’s a decent drop-off between the Atlanta defense and St. Louis’ defense.
Without adjusting for strength of schedule, Atlanta has surrendered 1.15 npxGA per 90 minutes with St. Louis allowing 1.36, per fbref.com.
Sample the six Miami home matches with Messi in the lineup, and bettors will find they’ve scored at least one second-half goal in all six with two or more tallies only twice.
Oddly, those two successes came against sides with superior defensive records to St. Louis. However, given the rest gap, I’ll take Miami to clear this total for the third time.
Inter Miami Form
May 29 vs. Atlanta United: 1-3, L
May 25 at Vancouver: 2-1, W
May 18 vs. D.C. United: 1-0, W
May 15 at Orlando: 0-0, D
May 11 at Montreal: 3-2, W
St. Louis Form
May 25 vs. Seattle: 1-2, L
May 18 at FC Cincinnati: 1-3, L
May 15 vs. LAFC: 0-2, L
May 11 vs. Chicago: 3-1, W
May 4 at Houston: 0-0, D
Upcoming MLS Match Schedule
| Home | Away | Date | Time (ET) | Location |
| NYCFC | San Jose Earthquakes | May. 31 | 7:30 PM | Yankee Stadium |
| D.C. United | Toronto FC | Jun. 1 | 7:30 PM | Audi Field |
| Inter Miami | St. Louis SC | Jun. 1 | 7:30 PM | Chase Field |
| NY Red Bulls | Orlando SC | Jun. 1 | 7:30 PM | Red Bull Arena |
| Philadelphia Union | Montreal | Jun. 1 | 7:30 PM | Subaru Park |
| Chicago Fire | LA Galaxy | Jun. 1 | 8:30 PM | Soldier Field |
| Minnesota United | Sporting KC | Jun. 1 | 8:30 PM | Allianz Field |
| Nashville SC | New England Revolution | Jun. 1 | 8:30 PM | GEODIS Park |
| Real Salt Lake | Austin FC | Jun. 1 | 9:30 PM | America First Field |
| LAFC | FC Dallas | Jun. 1 | 10:30 PM | BMO Stadium |
| Portland Timbers | Houston Dynamo | Jun. 1 | 10:30 PM | Providence Park |
| Vancouver Whitecaps | Colorado Rapids | Jun. 1 | 10:30 PM | BC Place |
| Atlanta United | Charlotte FC | Jun. 2 | 2:45 PM | Mercedes-Benz Stadium |
MLS Eastern Conference Standings
| Team | Record (Wins-Draws-Losses) | Points | Goal Differential |
| Inter Miami | 10-4-3 | 34 | 15 |
| FC Cincinnati | 10-3-3 | 33 | 7 |
| NYCFC | 8-2-5 | 26 | 3 |
| NY Red Bulls | 7-5-3 | 26 | 6 |
| Columbus Crew | 6-6-2 | 24 | 8 |
| Toronto FC | 7-2-7 | 23 | 0 |
| Charlotte FC | 6-4-6 | 22 | -1 |
| Philadelphia Union | 4-7-4 | 19 | 4 |
| Nashville SC | 4-7-4 | 19 | -1 |
| D.C. United | 4-6-6 | 18 | -6 |
| Orlando City | 4-5-6 | 17 | -7 |
| Atlanta United | 4-4-7 | 16 | 2 |
| CF Montreal | 4-4-7 | 16 | -12 |
| Chicago Fire | 2-6-8 | 12 | -13 |
| NE Revolution | 2-1-10 | 7 | -17 |
MLS Western Conference Standings
| Team | Record (Wins-Draws-Losses) | Points | Goal Differential |
| Real Salt Lake | 8-6-2 | 30 | 13 |
| LA Galaxy | 7-7-2 | 28 | 5 |
| LAFC | 8-3-4 | 27 | 8 |
| Minnesota United | 7-4-3 | 25 | 5 |
| Austin FC | 6-5-5 | 23 | 0 |
| Vancouver Whitecaps | 6-4-5 | 22 | 4 |
| Colorado Rapids | 6-4-6 | 22 | -1 |
| Houston Dynamo | 6-3-6 | 21 | 0 |
| Portland Timbers | 5-4-7 | 19 | 0 |
| Seattle Sounders | 4-6-6 | 18 | 0 |
| St. Louis SC | 3-7-4 | 16 | -2 |
| FC Dallas | 3-4-7 | 13 | -6 |
| San Jose Earthquakes | 3-2-10 | 11 | -11 |
| Sporting KC | 2-5-8 | 11 | -5 |
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