- San Jose Earthquakes is a -0.5-goal favorite against Austin FC.
- Austin won 4-3 in the previous meeting, ending a streak of four straight draws.
- Why bettors should expect goals to flow on Saturday at PayPal Park.
On Saturday at PayPal Park, the San Jose Earthquakes will attempt to stop their losing run against Austin FC.
San Jose has lost three games on the bounce, including a midweek U.S. Open Cup match against Sacramento Republic F.C.
Meanwhile, Austin currently sits third in the Western Conference and has dropped all three points only once in their last five. When these sides last met, Austin earned a 4-3 win.
Here’s a look at the MLS odds and my prediction for Saturday’s late kickoff.
MLS Odds – San Jose Earthquakes vs. Austin FC
- San Jose Earthquakes Moneyline: -130
- Austin FC Moneyline: +290
- Draw Moneyline: +290
- Over/Under: 3.5 Goals (+135/-190)
MLS Predictions – San Jose Earthquakes vs. Austin FC
Same Game Parlay: Both Teams to Score & Over 2.5 Goals (-135)
It’s difficult to foresee a scenario where these sides play a low-event match, given the previous meeting featured loads of chances at both ends.
In addition to combining for seven goals, San Jose and Austin generated 5.26 post-shot expected goals with both teams clearing two post-shot expected goals.
The match featured six big scoring chances and 14 shots on target, eight of which came from San Jose. To date, that’s their highest shots on target number for the season.
That represents a recurring theme for the way these teams like to play their matches against one another.
Both teams have scored in five straight meetings, with four of those five games clearing 3.5 goals.
Plus, this is an Austin side that enters Saturday’s fixture as a major negative regression candidate defensively.
Entering the match, they have conceded only 17 goals off 22.4 expected and 15 non-penalty goals off 20.8 npxGA, per fbref.com.
Given they surrendered 2.7 expected goals to San Jose at home, I worry about the Austin defense on Saturday.
That said, San Jose faces a short week after playing a road U.S. Open Cup match on Tuesday.
Although they’ve faced the most penalty kicks in MLS to date, this remains a San Jose defense that’s 11th-worst in MLS in non-penalty expected goals against per 90 minutes.
Even if San Jose contributes the lion’s share of the scoring, I’ll be surprised if they keep Austin off the scoresheet.
As a result, I’ll take Austin to find the net and help send this game over 2.5 goals on Saturday.
San Jose Earthquakes Form
May 21 at Sacramento Republic: 3-4, L (U.S. Open Cup)
May 18 vs. Orlando: 0-1, L
May 15 at Portland: 2-4, L
May 11 at Colorado Rapids: 3-2, W
May 7 vs. Oakland Roots SC: 1-0, W (U.S. Open Cup)
Austin FC Form
May 18 vs. Sporting KC: 3-2, W
May 15 vs. Houston: 1-0, W
May 11 at FC Dallas: 1-2, L
May 4 at Vancouver: 0-0, D
April 27 vs. LA Galaxy: 2-0, W
San Jose Earthquakes vs. Austin FC Head-to-Head Record
April 6: Austin FC, 4-3 (Q2 Stadium)
Oct. 21, 2023: Draw, 1-1 (PayPal Park)
April 29, 2023: Draw, 2-2 (Q2 Stadium)
Aug. 6, 2022: Draw, 3-3 (Q2 Stadium)
April 2, 2022: Draw, 2-2 (Earthquakes Stadium)
MLS Match Schedule This Weekend
| Home | Away | Date | Time (ET) | Location |
| NYCFC | San Jose Earthquakes | May. 31 | 7:30 PM | Yankee Stadium |
| D.C. United | Toronto FC | Jun. 1 | 7:30 PM | Audi Field |
| Inter Miami | St. Louis SC | Jun. 1 | 7:30 PM | Chase Field |
| NY Red Bulls | Orlando SC | Jun. 1 | 7:30 PM | Red Bull Arena |
| Philadelphia Union | Montreal | Jun. 1 | 7:30 PM | Subaru Park |
| Chicago Fire | LA Galaxy | Jun. 1 | 8:30 PM | Soldier Field |
| Minnesota United | Sporting KC | Jun. 1 | 8:30 PM | Allianz Field |
| Nashville SC | New England Revolution | Jun. 1 | 8:30 PM | GEODIS Park |
| Real Salt Lake | Austin FC | Jun. 1 | 9:30 PM | America First Field |
| LAFC | FC Dallas | Jun. 1 | 10:30 PM | BMO Stadium |
| Portland Timbers | Houston Dynamo | Jun. 1 | 10:30 PM | Providence Park |
| Vancouver Whitecaps | Colorado Rapids | Jun. 1 | 10:30 PM | BC Place |
| Atlanta United | Charlotte FC | Jun. 2 | 2:45 PM | Mercedes-Benz Stadium |
MLS Eastern Conference Standings
| Team | Record (Wins-Draws-Losses) | Points | Goal Differential |
| Inter Miami | 10-4-3 | 34 | 15 |
| FC Cincinnati | 10-3-3 | 33 | 7 |
| NYCFC | 8-2-5 | 26 | 3 |
| NY Red Bulls | 7-5-3 | 26 | 6 |
| Columbus Crew | 6-6-2 | 24 | 8 |
| Toronto FC | 7-2-7 | 23 | 0 |
| Charlotte FC | 6-4-6 | 22 | -1 |
| Philadelphia Union | 4-7-4 | 19 | 4 |
| Nashville SC | 4-7-4 | 19 | -1 |
| D.C. United | 4-6-6 | 18 | -6 |
| Orlando City | 4-5-6 | 17 | -7 |
| Atlanta United | 4-4-7 | 16 | 2 |
| CF Montreal | 4-4-7 | 16 | -12 |
| Chicago Fire | 2-6-8 | 12 | -13 |
| NE Revolution | 2-1-10 | 7 | -17 |
MLS Western Conference Standings
| Team | Record (Wins-Draws-Losses) | Points | Goal Differential |
| Real Salt Lake | 8-6-2 | 30 | 13 |
| LA Galaxy | 7-7-2 | 28 | 5 |
| LAFC | 8-3-4 | 27 | 8 |
| Minnesota United | 7-4-3 | 25 | 5 |
| Austin FC | 6-5-5 | 23 | 0 |
| Vancouver Whitecaps | 6-4-5 | 22 | 4 |
| Colorado Rapids | 6-4-6 | 22 | -1 |
| Houston Dynamo | 6-3-6 | 21 | 0 |
| Portland Timbers | 5-4-7 | 19 | 0 |
| Seattle Sounders | 4-6-6 | 18 | 0 |
| St. Louis SC | 3-7-4 | 16 | -2 |
| FC Dallas | 3-4-7 | 13 | -6 |
| San Jose Earthquakes | 3-2-10 | 11 | -11 |
| Sporting KC | 2-5-8 | 11 | -5 |
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