The Case for Anthony Davis’ DPOY Odds After Trade to Mavericks

Maybe it’s the lack of sleep since the most shocking trade in NBA history. Maybe my brain has been fried from all the screen time over the last 36 hours. 

Perhaps I’m just trying to find one logical reason why the Dallas Mavericks would trade Luka Dončić in a deal for Anthony Davis.

Whatever the reason, I placed my first bet after the blockbuster trade on Davis to win the 2024-25 Defensive Player of the Year award. His NBA odds at the BetMGM online sportsbook are as high as +12500.

Allow me to explain before you exit out of this article.

No, the sleep deprivation didn’t make me forget San Antonio Spurs center Victor Wembanyama exists. He’s -1400 to win the award via the latest NBA betting lines, giving him an implied probability of 93.33% at this point in the season.

Despite all the screen time, I still believe Wemby will win his first of many DPOY awards this season.

So, why did I bet on Davis in this market? The number is too good to pass up in the only award race where I don’t have a preseason position. Especially considering the profile of previous DPOY winners.

As the updated NBA Defensive Player of the Year odds explain, voters have kept this award simple. They vote for the best player on the best defense, as 11 of the previous 12 winners have been on teams that ranked first or second in defensive rating.

Wemby is set to end that streak this year. The Spurs rank 18th in defensive rating. That’s what happens when a 7-foot-4 unicorn leads the league with an average of four blocks per contest.

In addition, Wemby’s potential DPOY campaign would make him the youngest winner in NBA history at 21. There have been four 23-year-old DPOYs:

• Jaren Jackson Jr. (2022-23)
• Kawhi Leonard (2014-15)
• Dwight Howard (2008-09)
• Alvin Robertson (1985-86).

As if that’s not enough, no DPOY winner has ever been on a team that missed the playoffs. The Spurs’ playoff odds are +350 after trading for De’Aaron Fox over the weekend.

If voters aren’t ready to break all their rules for Wembanyama, Davis’ DPOY campaign just got a lot more interesting.

Davis has arguably been the best defensive player in the league not to win this award the past several seasons, which is primarily his teammates’ fault. Here is where the Lakers have ranked in defensive rating with Davis:

• 2024-25: 19th
• 2023-24: 16th
• 2022-23: 11th
• 2021-22: 21st
• 2020-21: 1st
• 2019-20: 3rd

The Mavs rank 13th in defensive rating so far this season, but they made this move in hopes of being one of the best teams on that end of the floor.

“We really feel that defense wins championships, and we think the players that we’re bringing in add to the culture, which is important to what J-Kidd (head coach Jason Kidd) and I have been building here from Day 1,” Mavs general manager Nico Harrison said.

It’s difficult to project where the Mavs will stack up among the top defensive teams, but it’s easy to envision them getting stops with Davis, Max Christie, Daniel Gafford, and P.J. Washington.

Davis will slide into his preferred role as the team’s power forward, allowing him to impact as a weak-side help defender. I expect his blocks (2.1) to increase while playing alongside a center in Dallas.

While Davis only has a few months to elevate this defense into elite status, there is recent precedent for voters giving him credit if that happens.

The Memphis Grizzlies ranked 20th in defensive rating during the opening month of the 2022-23 campaign. Jaren Jackson Jr. made his season debut on Nov. 15, and Memphis ranked third in defensive rating from that point forward on his way to winning DPOY.

It’s admittedly a long shot, which is why the current price on Davis to win the award gives him an implied probability of 0.79%. But that line also doesn’t give Davis enough credit after he finished third in Defensive Player of the Year voting last season.

This version of the Mavs will likely be the best defensive team Davis has been on since at least 2020-21. I expect him to be in the conversation by the end of the year, which is all I can ask for when taking this flier.

OK, back to sleep now.