Hawks vs Heat Prediction, Odds, Best Bets & Team Props – NBA, Mar. 6

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Mar 06, 2023, 4:30 PM
  • The Heat (34-31) are -2.5 favorites vs. the Hawks (32-32)
  • Total (Over/Under): 228.5 points
  • Monday, March 6, 2023 at 7:30pm EST
  • Watch the game on BSSUN & BSSE

The Atlanta Hawks visit Miami-Dade Arena to take on the Miami Heat on Monday. Tipoff is scheduled for 7:30pm EST in Miami.

The Heat are betting favorites in this NBA matchup, with the spread sitting at -2.5 (-110).

The Hawks vs Heat Over/Under is 229.5 total points for the game.

So far this NBA season, the Hawks are 28-35 against the spread, while the Heat are 24-39 against the spread.


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Hawks vs. Heat Odds, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Atlanta Hawks+2.5 -110O 229.5 -110+115
Miami Heat -2.5 -110U 229.5 -110-140

Heat vs Hawks Prediction for Tonight’s Game:

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts the Heat will win Monday‘s game with 54.8% confidence.

Heat vs Hawks Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread (ATS) trends, the model predicts the Hawks will cover the spread for Monday‘s game with 53.2% confidence.

These predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both the Hawks and Heat, plus recent team & player performances and defensive & offensive matchups over the last several NBA games.


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  • The Atlanta Hawks have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 30 of their last 45 away games (+12.84 Units / 25% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Hawks have hit the 2Q Game Total Under in 28 of their last 45 games (+8.40 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Hawks have hit the Team Total Under in 44 of their last 75 games (+8.35 Units / 10% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Hawks have hit the 3Q Moneyline in 13 of their last 17 games (+8.32 Units / 36% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Hawks have hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 43 of their last 76 games (+7.85 Units / 9% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 41 of their last 66 games (+12.74 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the Team Total Under in 49 of their last 81 games (+12.25 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 24 of their last 36 games at home (+11.80 Units / 30% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 17 of their last 22 games (+11.42 Units / 46% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the Game Total Under in 48 of their last 83 games (+10.60 Units / 12% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Hawks have gone 28-35 (-10.5 Units / -14.91% ROI).

  • 32-32 against the Moneyline (-13.55 Units / -11.66% ROI)
  • 36-28 against the Over for game total points (+5.2 Units / 7.39% ROI)
  • 28-36 against the Under for game total points (-11.6 Units / -16.48% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Heat have gone 24-39 (-18.9 Units / -26.43% ROI).

  • 34-31 against the Moneyline (-16.55 Units / -13.48% ROI)
  • 28-36 against the Over for game total points (-11.6 Units / -16.22% ROI)
  • 36-28 against the Under for game total points (+5.2 Units / 7.27% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the Team Total Over in 41 of their last 99 games (-25.65 Units / -23% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the 3Q Moneyline in 25 of their last 65 games (-24.45 Units / -29% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the 2H Moneyline in 21 of their last 55 games (-24.17 Units / -31% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 26 of their last 68 games (-21.34 Units / -28% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only covered the Spread in 26 of their last 71 games (-21.30 Units / -27% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Hawks have only hit the 2H Moneyline in 36 of their last 87 games (-32.46 Units / -26% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Hawks have only hit the 4Q Moneyline in 19 of their last 59 games (-27.33 Units / -40% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Hawks have only covered the 4Q Spread in 21 of their last 59 games (-20.92 Units / -32% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Hawks have only hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 34 of their last 82 games (-20.04 Units / -22% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Hawks have only hit the Team Total Over in 31 of their last 75 games (-18.80 Units / -22% ROI)

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Atlanta Hawks: Keys to the Game vs. the Miami Heat

The Atlanta Hawks are 4-12 (.250) when allowing their opponent to shoot 40% or better from three this season — 10th-worst among NBA teams. The Portland Trail Blazers has shot 37% from three (764/2,044) this season — eighth-best among NBA teams.

The Atlanta Hawks are 48-26 (.649) when they win the turnover margin since the start of the 2021-22 season — 10th-best among NBA teams. The Portland Trail Blazers have averaged 13.8 turnovers per game (1,939 turnovers/141 games) since the start of the 2021-22 season — tied for seventh-highest among NBA teams.

The Hawks are 58-11 (.841) when shooting 50% or better from the field since the start of the 2020-21 season — 10th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .780

The Hawks are 24-26 (.480) when scoring 15 or more second chance points since the start of the 2021-22 season — tied for 10th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .539

Miami Heat: Keys to the Game vs. the Atlanta Hawks

The Heat are 45-14 (.763) when scoring 15 or more second chance points since the start of the 2020-21 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .542

The Heat are 29-13 (.690) when allowing fewer than 10 second chance points since the start of the 2021-22 season — 6th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .550

The Heat are 18-6 (.750) when winning the rebounding margin this season — 9th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .675

The Heat are 24-15 (.615) when allowing 15 or more second chance points since the start of the 2021-22 season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: .461

Injury Report: Heat vs. HawksMonday‘s Game, Mar. 6

  • Kyle Lowry (Heat): Lowry has not played since Feb. 2 and no timetable has been announced for his return.
  • Nikola Jovic (Heat): Jovic has been out since Dec. 26 and remains without a timetable for return.
  • Kevin Love (Heat): Love is probable for Monday’s (Mar. 6) game against Atlanta.
  • Atlanta Hawks – No Injuries Reported

Atlanta Hawks Offensive Stats & Trends

The Hawks have an assist to turnover ratio of 2.0 (5,198 assists/ 2,571 TOs) since the start of the 2020-21 season — tied for 3rd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.9

The Hawks have averaged 6.0 turnovers per game (1,269 turnovers/213 games) in the second half since the start of the 2020-21 season — 3rd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 6.6

The Hawks have averaged 12.4 turnovers per game (733 turnovers/59 games) this season — 4th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 13.6

The Hawks have averaged 11.5 turnovers per game (796 turnovers/69 games) at home since the start of the 2021-22 season — 3rd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 13.2

Miami Heat Offensive Stats & Trends

The Heat have averaged 51.4 points per game (3,033 points/59 games) in the second half this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 56.0

The Heat have averaged 108.0 points per game (6,374 points/59 games) this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 114.3

The Heat are shooting 32% from three (316/999) in the second half this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 36%

The Heat have averaged 52.4 points per game (7,395 points/141 games) in the second half since the start of the 2021-22 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 54.9

Atlanta Hawks Defensive Stats & Trends

The Hawks have averaged 6.5 steals per game (469 steals/72 games) on the road since the start of the 2021-22 season — tied for lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.5

The Hawks have averaged 33.4 defensive rebounds per game (1,968 rebounds/59 games) this season — 10th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 33.1

The Hawks have averaged 6.7 steals per game (728 steals/108 games) on the road since the start of the 2020-21 season — 3rd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.6

The Hawks have blocked 291 shots this season — tied for 10th most among NBA teams

Miami Heat Defensive Stats & Trends

The Heat have averaged 3.1 blocks per game (438 blocks/141 games) since the start of the 2021-22 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.7

The Heat have averaged 2.9 blocks per game (173 blocks/59 games) this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.7

The Heat have averaged 3.0 blocks per game (205 blocks/69 games) at home since the start of the 2021-22 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.8

The Heat have averaged 3.4 blocks per game (724 blocks/213 games) since the start of the 2020-21 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.8


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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.