- The Magic are -3.5 against the Magic in Game 6.
- Home teams have won all five games in the series.
- The case for a slow start from the Cavs offense in Orlando.
It’s the four-five matchup in the Eastern Conference first round, and I’m here to provide a Cavaliers vs. Magic prediction.
After receiving two straight defeats in Orlando, the Cavaliers returned home in Game 5 and captured a narrow win to take a 3-2 series lead.
Now the series heads back to Orlando with the Magic looking to win and play a seventh game in Cleveland.
Here’s a look at the NBA playoff odds and my Game 6 prediction.
NBA Playoff Odds – Cavaliers vs. Magic
- Magic Moneyline: -165
- Cavaliers Moneyline: +140
- Spread: Magic -3.5 (-115)
- Over/Under: 200.5 Points (-105/-115)
- Series Price: Cavaliers (-400), Magic (+325)
NBA Playoff Prediction – Cavaliers vs. Magic
Cavaliers 1Q Team Total Under 25.5 Points (-130)
There’s a glaring difference between the Magic’s defensive output in home first quarters and road first quarters.
On the road, they’re a bottom-half NBA side. During the regular season, they allowed 29.2 points per game away from home.
Sample three road games in this series and bettors will find Orlando allowed 32 first quarter points per game to the Cavaliers.
However, Cleveland produced a massive dropoff in their two games in Orlando.
Although it’s only a two-game sample, Orlando held the Cavaliers to only 22 first quarter points per game in Games 3 and 4.
With two days between games after traveling for Game 3, the Magic held Cleveland to only 21 first quarter points.
Plus, this is a Cleveland team that generally struggles away from home in the first quarter.
Without adjusting for strength of schedule or defensive quality, Cleveland averages 28.5 first quarter points per game away from home, down from 30.7 in Cleveland.
Cleveland also could play without center Jarett Allen for Friday’s game, which would prove a big blow to their offense.
Without Allen on the floor, Cleveland sees their offensive rating drop by 5.2 points per game.
Against a stout Magic defense with ample rest time, take the under on Cleveland’s first quarter team total.
NBA ATS Records 2023-24
| Team | ATS Record | ATS Win Pct. |
| Mavericks | 48-34-0 | .585 |
| Celtics | 41-36-5 | .533 |
NBA Over/Under Records 2023-24
| Team | Over Record | Over Pct. | Under Pct. |
| Celtics | 43-39-0 | .524 | .476 |
| Mavericks | 36-45-1 | .444 | .556 |
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